As the nation continues to face the novel coronavirus pandemic, President-elect Joe Biden recently warned the American public that darker days might still rest ahead of us in spite of leaps forward with the vaccine. Why? Well, the message this holiday season was, essentially, to stay home and stay safe. So what did people do? According to recent data, people, apparently, headed to the airport. Appearing on CNN’s State of the Union this Sunday, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the infectious disease specialist who has been trying to steer the public in the right direction in spite of the Trump administration’s floundering, chatted with host Dana Bash about his concerns about the coming few weeks and what he agrees with Biden about.
“I share the concern of President-elect Biden that as we get into the next few weeks, it might actually get worse,” Fauci stated about the virus during his interview. Let’s unpack why Fauci is worried about a possible surge, his own experience with the vaccine so far, and his recent estimates on herd immunity, and when we might achieve it, below.
When speaking to Fauci, Bash referenced Biden’s statement about the “darkest days of the battle against COVID” possibly being “ahead of us,” as well as skyrocketing COVID-19 numbers and hospitalizations. She asked Fauci if he agrees the worst is yet to come. In short? He thinks that’s certainly possible.
“As I’ve described it,” he said, post-holiday season, we might enter “a surge upon a surge, because, if you look at the slope, the incline of cases that we have experienced as we have gone into the late fall and soon-to-be early winter… It is really quite troubling.” Of course, this is far from the first time Fauci has warned about a possible surge related to the holiday season and winter months.
When Bash asked about travel numbers specifically, including airport screening numbers, Fauci said that there is, of course, no guarantee a surge will happen after Christmas travel. “There is certainly a danger,” Fauci stressed, however, describing how difficult it can be to practice social distancing at airports, for example, and the indoor socializing that often happens at destinations.
Fauci also talked about his own experience getting the vaccine. Fauci, who got the first dose of the vaccine in public, said he experienced a “little bit of an ache” in his arm that lasted around 24 hours. “Even good, or better, than an influenza vaccine,” as he put it.
Bash and Fauci also talked about herd immunity numbers. Over a series of interviews on the subject, Fauci has offered varying percentages on what he thinks will be needed to achieve herd immunity, but on Sunday’s show, suggested that this variation isn’t an issue of not being straight-forward with the public, but rather that these numbers are “pure estimates” and ranges. He also explained that many calculations are made in comparison to measles (which is super transmissible).
Fauci stressed that he thinks everyone needs to be “honest and humble,” because, “nobody really knows for sure… But I think 70 to 85% for herd immunity for Covid-19 is a reasonable estimate, and in fact, most of my epidemiology colleagues agree with me.” His ultimate goal? To encourage people to get vaccinated.
He also hopes to see the general population begin to get vaccinated in April, which will likely take several months, leading us to the middle to the end of summer. Fauci said he hopes we can reach the necessary percentage of vaccinated people by fall.
And here’s the full segment on YouTube.