This is in further exploration of Andy Schmookler’s diary How the Urgent Need to Defeat Trump Has Compelled Me to Change How I'll Vote Tomorrow and the comment thread in reaction to it.
Full disclosure: I’m a Warren supporter in Colorado, and have already cast my ballot.
As far as the “electability” argument goes, the way I see how support for the Democratic candidate in the general shapes up after the convention hinges on how the convention goes down.
As of today, according to fivethirtyeight.com’s model, there’s a 65% chance that no candidate will have a majority of delegates.
Sanders and Biden are likely to arrive at the convention with the most delegates, with Sanders in the lead.
If this holds true, my hypothesis is that in the general election, voters will respond very differently to these two scenarios vis a vis electability versus Trump.
There are two factors.
- How the Democratic primary electorate will respond to each candidate in the general.
- How each candidate will attract non-Democratic primary voters in the general.
Before I dive into the convention-winner scenarios, I want to present this pie chart of the Clinton v. Trump election in 2016. Note that a plurality of 91 million eligible voters did not vote. 41.2% of eligible voters chose to sit out, more than voted for either Clinton or Trump.
The demographic breakdown of non-voters are largely female (53%), white (65%), Millenial (40%). These voters are also likely to be single, non-college educated, and earn less money than average (no %’s given). (NBC News, The 100 Million Project).
Reasons for disengagement include a lack of faith in the political system and doubt about voting’s impact on their lives. In 2016, there was a choice between a Democratic “establishment” candidate, and Trump, and these people chose to vote for neither.
With these demographics in mind:
Scenario 1:
Sanders v. Trump
Sanders enters the convention with the most delegates and leaves with the nomination.
Factor 1: Youth (under 45) and progressive support is high. Moderate / establishment support is unenthusiastic.
Factor 2: Sanders expands the map tapping into the 91 million eligible voters who sat out Clinton v. Trump in 2016. Previous non-voters outnumber any moderates who sit out.
Scenario 2:
Biden v. Trump
Biden enters the convention with the second most delegates and leaves with the nomination.
Factor 1: Progressive and younger-than-45 support collapses. (Biden is in single digits with those under 45 in the Democratic primaries).
Factor 2: The Biden campaign is unable to expand support. Clinton v. Trump all over again.
The Biden campaign spends the election trying to retain support from the youth and progressive ranks, instead of increasing support.
Bottom Line:
Any scenario in which Sanders enters the convention with the most delegates, but Biden wins the nomination is going to be perceived as an establishment takeover by younger voters and progressives. Less-engaged voters are going to see the same establishment v. Trump scenario they sat out in 2016, which means there is no incentive for the 91 million eligible non-voters to participate.
A Sanders delegate lead and nomination win leads to a populist v. Trump scenario, retaining more base Democratic support, and gaining turnout from lower voting demographics.