An outbreak of severe thunderstorms, including possible destructive long-track tornadoes, is likely across the deep south today. NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has issued its “moderate” probability forecast (which is anything but moderate) for severe storms from Mississippi across Alabama to western Georgia today. “Moderate” is the next to highest category the SPC issues. It’s bad news.
SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely today into tonight, with the greatest threat expected from Mississippi across Alabama into western Georgia. Strong tornadoes, widespread damaging winds, and large hail are all possible.
Abnormally warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico are providing an exceptionally high amount of water vapor to the intense southerly winds that will fuel today’s storms. This may be the element of climate change involved in today’s weather because over 90 percent of the additional heating caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gases goes into the oceans. However, tornado forecasts are tricky so the water vapor could also cause heavy rain in large bands, dampening the potential for super cell tornadoes. Today heavy rain is forecast in the Tennessee river valley with a diminished chance of tornadoes compared to Alabama which is forecast to be south of the wide spread rain.
The severe weather will rapidly evolve today as the heating and destabilization increases in the early afternoon. Pay close attention to your local forecasters and local media if you live in the deep south. This is a very dynamic weather system that is very hard to forecast in detail. The severe weather may continue into early morning Monday in the Carolinas. I will be paying close attention because I live in southern North Carolina, but I am not capable of tracking all the local details that may be critical to your safety and I do not claim to be an expert on tornadoes. Please stay safe. Have a happy Easter.
The SPC’s latest forecast is found at this link. www.spc.noaa.gov/...