The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● TX-22: While even Donald Trump has, at least for now, stopped dog-whistling to racists by calling the coronavirus the “Chinese virus,” self-funder Kathaleen Wall is just getting started.
Wall is out with a new TV spot ahead of the July 14 GOP runoff that opens with a narrator charging, “China poisoned our people” as an animation shows arrows labeled “Chinese Virus” flying across the Pacific and landing in the United States. After praising Trump for using this racist term, the narrator says that Wall will “cut off trade, aid, and support to China.” The ad ends by calling the world’s largest country—and America's largest trading partner—“a criminal enterprise masquerading as a sovereign nation.”
Campaign Action
Wall, though, hasn’t done anything to hide her own pro-coronavirus views. Just last week, the candidate responded to Republican Gov. Greg Abbott’s order halting abortions by classifying them as a non-essential procedure with a tweet saying that “#COVID19 will save more lives this week than it takes! #ProLife.” Wall quickly doubled down by telling Newsweek, “While the coronavirus spread and resulting deaths are a grave concern for the people of this Country and Texas, the fact is that last week in Texas 700 lives were saved because the Governor stopped abortions. I think that is good news during these difficult times.”
All of this comes at a time when Wall very much looks like the underdog to win the GOP nod against Fort Bend County Sheriff Troy Nehls, who outpaced her 41-19 in the first round of the primary on March 3. Wall, though, has shown that she’s willing and able to spend millions on her campaign, and her retrograde views could help her narrow the gap. Whoever wins will take on Democrat Sri Preston Kulkarni in this 52-44 Trump seat in the southern Houston suburbs.
Election Changes
Please bookmark our statewide 2020 primary calendar and our calendar of key downballot races, both of which we're updating continually as changes are finalized.
● Georgia: The Republican members of Georgia's congressional delegation have asked Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger to postpone the state's May 19 presidential and downballot primaries "to the latest date possible," but Raffensperger quickly replied that he would not. In a separate statement, Raffensperger explained that he had been empowered to delay Georgia's March 24 presidential primary until May because Republican Gov. Brian Kemp had declared a state of emergency. However, says the secretary, he cannot do so again because the emergency declaration doesn't extend through May 19.
Previously, Republican state House Speaker David Ralston had sent two letters to Raffensperger asking him to move the primaries, but Raffensperger rejected Ralston's requests. In response to this latest entreaty from the congressional delegation, Raffensperger said, "If the General Assembly and the Governor wants to move the election to June or July, we will support them in that."
● Hawaii: Hawaii Democrats have announced that they will count any mail-in ballots cast in their presidential primary that they receive by May 22 and will announce results on May 23. Previously, the party had canceled all in-person voting, which had been set for April 4.
● Illinois: Democratic Gov. J.B. Pritzker says that Illinois "may have to move to a significant amount or all mail in ballots" for the November general election. Pritzker says he supports mail voting but says the legislature would have to address the matter.
● Iowa: Republican Secretary of State Paul Pate says he will mail an absentee ballot application, with a postage-paid return envelope, to all 2 million active registered voters in Iowa ahead of the state's June 2 downballot primaries. However, this effort will miss any voters marked as "inactive" on the rolls. Registrations typically get marked as such when mail to these voters is returned as undelivered, but such voters still possess valid registrations and a portion of them wind up voting, typically in person.
● Maryland: The leaders of Maryland's Democratic-run legislature are calling on Republican Gov. Larry Hogan to "explore potential options for in-person voting" for the state's June 2 presidential and downballot primaries. The Board of Elections' current plan for the primaries would eliminate all in-person voting, a move that could subject the state to a lawsuit. The board is set to forward a final plan to Hogan on Thursday.
● New Jersey: Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy said he had "nothing new" on the possibility of New Jersey conducting its June 2 presidential and downballot primaries by mail at a Tuesday press conference. Last week, unnamed election officials told the New Jersey Globe they thought Murphy would have to make an announcement this week in order to be able to effect such a change in time, but Murphy disputed that claim, saying, "We have a very different timeline on when to make the decision."
● New Mexico: Democratic Secretary of State Maggie Toulouse Oliver says she "is hopeful the state Supreme Court will grant the request for an all-mail 2020 Primary Election" brought by 27 of New Mexico's 33 county clerks. Meanwhile, the state Republican Party has brought a suit before the court asking that election officials be barred from conducting the state's June 2 presidential and downballot primaries by mail.
● North Carolina: Phil Berger, the Republican leader of North Carolina's state Senate, has rejected ideas put forth by the state's Board of Elections to make mail voting easier and to make Election Day a holiday.
● West Virginia: Republican Gov. Jim Justice has postponed West Virginia's presidential and downballot primaries from May 12 to June 9.
Senate
● GA-Sen-B: GOP Rep. Doug Collins’ campaign is out with new numbers from Battleground Connect that shows his main intra-party opponent, appointed Sen. Kelly Loeffler, losing some support in the days since the news broke of her insider trading scandal on the evening of March 19.
The firm’s March 12 poll found Collins leading the November all-party primary with 30%, while Loeffler narrowly edged businessman Matt Lieberman, who is one of the three Democrats running here, 19-18 for the second runoff spot; the other two Democrats, pastor Raphael Warnock and former U.S. Attorney Ed Tarver, were at 10% and 5%, respectively. On March 21, right after the Loeffler news broke, Collins’ lead stood at 32% while Lieberman led the incumbent 19-15. The most recent survey from March 24 had Collins at 34%, Lieberman at 18%, Loeffler at 14%, and Warnock and Tarver taking 13% and 5%.
● KY-Sen: Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is out with a positive spot that praises him for the coronavirus economic bill. Advertising Analytics reports that he's spending $444,000 on TV commercials in Kentucky over the next week.
● MI-Sen: The conservative Restoration PAC, which is supporting Republican John James, recently released a set of polls from Hodas & Associates looking at Donald Trump's electoral standing in key Midwestern states that also included a question on the Michigan Senate race. The GOP pollster found Democratic incumbent Gary Peters leading Republican John James 48-39, which is quite different from the 44-43 James edge they found in November.
The survey was released around the same time that Restoration PAC launched a new anti-Peters commercial that tried to tie him to New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. The group, which is funded by conservative zillionaire Richard Uihlein, says it's spending $280,000 on this new TV campaign plus another $100,000 for digital ads.
Gubernatorial
● Missouri: Candidate filing closed Tuesday for Missouri’s Aug. 4 primaries, and the state has a list of contenders available here.
● MO-Gov: Mike Parson was elevated from lieutenant governor to governor in 2018 after fellow Republican Eric Greitens resigned in disgrace, and he’s seeking his first full term this year. While Parson’s team worried that Greitens would try to regain his old post, the former governor didn’t end up filing before the deadline passed. Parson faces three primary opponents, including state Rep. Jim Neely, but none of them look like much of a threat for the Trump-endorsed incumbent.
On the Democratic side, state Auditor Nicole Galloway also has little opposition in her primary. Galloway is her party’s only statewide elected official, but she’ll still have a very tough time against Parson in what’s become a very hostile state for Team Blue. A mid-March poll from the GOP firm Remington Research for the political tipsheet Missouri Scout found Parson leading Galloway 52-39 in a race Daily Kos Elections rates as Safe Republican.
House
● AZ-01: While former state Sen. Barbara McGuire said last year that she would challenge Democratic Rep. Tom O'Halleran in the Democratic primary, she recently filed with the state to run for the legislative seat she lost in 2016 instead. O'Halleran still faces intra-party opposition from former Flagstaff City Councilor Eva Putzova in the August primary.
● CA-11: Democratic Rep. Mark DeSaulnier's office released a statement from his children on Tuesday saying that the congressman "remains in critical condition, but is stable and continues to be characteristically resilient." They continued, "While his situation remains serious, he is showing progress as his doctors continue to treat his pneumonia. His road to recovery is uncertain, ongoing, and will take time."
DeSaulnier was admitted to the hospital on March 18 after developing pneumonia as the result of what an earlier statement characterized as "a traumatic rib fracture that occurred after falling during a run." DeSaulnier was soon "advised he was COVID-19 negative."
● CA-25: The NRCC has launched a new TV ad attacking Democrat Christy Smith ahead of next month's special election, accusing her of supporting teacher layoffs. They hit her for having backed Assembly Bill 5, which makes it more difficult for employers to treat so-called "gig economy" workers as contractors rather than employees, a law they claim costs jobs.
● KY-06: VoteVets has endorsed attorney Josh Hicks' campaign to take on GOP Rep. Andy Barr.
● MO-01: Democratic Rep. Lacy Clay defeated nurse and activist Cori Bush by only a 57-37 margin in the 2018 primary, and Bush is running again for this safely blue St. Louis seat. Bush, though, ended 2019 with just $27,000 in the bank, and no major outside groups have gotten involved here yet.
● MO-02: This well-educated suburban St. Louis seat has long been safely red turf, but GOP Rep. Ann Wagner could be in for a tough fight against Democratic state Sen. Jill Schupp. Schupp outraised Wagner during her opening fundraising quarter, though the well-connected incumbent still had a massive cash-on-hand lead at the end of 2019. Neither candidate faces any intra-party opposition.
Trump won the district 53-42, which was a drop from Mitt Romney's 57-41, and the University of Virginia's Miles Coleman calculated that the 2nd backed Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill by 50-48 in 2018 even as she was losing statewide by 51-46. Wagner herself only turned back her Democratic challenger by 51-47 last cycle.
● NE-02: 2018 House nominee Kara Eastman is putting $64,000 behind her debut TV ad in the Democratic primary. The spot attacks GOP Rep. Don Bacon for supporting tax breaks for billionaires instead of supporting the middle class, contending that both he and Donald Trump want to cut Social Security.
● New Jersey: Candidate filing closed Monday for New Jersey's June 2 primary, and the state has its lists of contenders available here.
● NJ-02: Five Democrats filed to take on freshman Rep. Jeff Van Drew, a former Democrat who defected to the GOP in December, but only two of them appear to have serious party support.
Political science professor Brigid Callahan Harrison has the endorsement of Sens. Robert Menendez and Cory Booker, as well as party leaders in six of the eight counties that make up New Jersey's 2nd District. Mental health advocate Amy Kennedy, though, has the party backing in Atlantic County, which is by far the largest county in this South Jersey seat. The other contenders are West Cape May Commissioner John Francis, 2018 candidate Will Cunningham, and 2018 GOP candidate Robert Turkavage.
As we've written before, county party endorsements are typically very important in New Jersey primaries on both sides of the aisle. That's because, in many counties, endorsed candidates appear in a separate column on the ballot along with other party endorsees, a big deal in a state where party machines are still powerful. (This designation is known colloquially as the "organization line.")
You can see an example of this on this 2018 primary sample ballot from Burlington County. Menendez and Van Drew, who was still a Democrat, appeared in the column identified as "BURLINGTON COUNTY REGULAR DEMOCRATS" along with party-backed candidates running for other offices. Lisa McCormick, who was challenging Menendez for renomination, was listed on her own in the second column while the three candidates running against Van Drew in the 2nd District, including Cunningham, each had a column entirely to themselves.
Harrison has the organization line in Burlington, Camden, Cape May, Cumberland, and Gloucester Counties, which together cast 46% of the vote in the 2018 primary. The New Jersey Globe's David Wildstein writes that Salem County, which was another 8% of the vote, does not have an organization line, but party leaders are supporting Harrison there. Kennedy, though, has the line in Atlantic County, which made up 41% of the total vote. Party leaders in Ocean County, which makes up the balance of this seat, decided on Sunday not to back anyone.
Booker, though, gave Harrison some good news on Tuesday when he announced that he was rejecting the organization lines in Atlantic and Ocean Counties and creating his own. Booker said that he'd run with Harrison under his new line, a practice known as "bracketing."
You can see an example of bracketing from the 2018 GOP primary in Burlington County, where Senate candidate Brian Goldberg and House contender (and eventual nominee) Seth Grossman bracketed together: The party endorsed candidates were listed in the first column, Goldberg and Grossman were together in the second column, and two other GOP House candidates were alone in the final two columns.
In Atlantic County, voters this year will see a column for the local party's endorsed candidates, including Joe Biden and Kennedy, while Booker and Harrison will be bracketed together in a separate column. By bracketing with Harrison, Booker may be able to help her win over some of the voters who were already supporting him in his uncompetitive primary.
Van Drew, by contrast, managed to avoid a serious intra-party challenge. While plenty of local Republican leaders were initially skeptical about embracing the longtime Democrat, Donald Trump quickly threw his support behind him and helped Van Drew scare off any serious primary foes. This seat swung from 54-45 Obama to 51-46 Trump.
● NJ-03: Democrat Andy Kim narrowly won his first term after a very expensive 2018 race, and four Republicans are running to take the new incumbent on. This seat, which includes the Philadelphia suburbs and central Jersey Shore, swung from 52-47 Obama to 51-45 Trump. This district may be the most expensive in the nation to advertise in: About 57% of the 3rd is in the pricey Philadelphia media market, while the balance is in the very expensive New York City market.
The two main GOP candidates look like wealthy businessman David Richter, who had been running against Rep. Jeff Van Drew in the neighboring 2nd District until about a month after the incumbent switched parties, and former Burlington County Freeholder Kate Gibbs.
Richter has the party line in conservative Ocean County, which makes up just 43% of the population of this seat but is home to 55% of its 2016 Trump voters. Gibbs, by contrast, has support of the party in her home county, which makes up the balance of this seat. The other two contenders are Barnegat Township Mayor John Novak and David Schmidt, who haven't attracted much attention.
● NJ-05: Democratic Rep. Josh Gottheimer is seeking a third term in a seat located in northern Bergen County and New York City's northwestern exurbs that backed Donald Trump just 49-48. Gottheimer, who is one of the more prominent moderates in the Democratic caucus, faces a primary challenge from the left in the form of Glen Rock Councilwoman Arati Kreibich, but she hasn't earned much outside support. Gottheimer, by contrast, is an extremely strong fundraiser who has the backing of the major Democratic leaders in this district.
Five Republicans ended up filing to take on Gottheimer. The most familiar name is 2018 nominee John McCann, who struggled to raise money last time and lost 56-42 last cycle. The other two candidates to watch are former Wall Street banker Frank Pallotta and Montvale Mayor Mike Ghassali, who are largely self-funding their campaigns. Two other Republicans, teacher James Baldini and perennial candidate Hector Castillo, haven't earned much attention or notable support.
● NJ-07: Freshman Democratic Rep. Tom Malinowski faces an expensive battle to defend a historically red seat in Hunterdon County and New York City's western exurbs that swung from 53-46 Romney to 49-48 Clinton. National Republicans are supporting state Senate Minority Leader Tom Kean Jr., the son and namesake of former Gov. Tom Kean, and he faces no serious intra-party opposition.
● NJ-10: It doesn't look like Democratic Rep. Donald Payne will have any trouble winning renomination in his safely blue seat in the Newark area. While pastor Stephen Green attracted some media attention when he announced over the summer, he never set up a fundraising committee and didn't end up filing to run here.
● NJ-11: Freshman Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill decisively flipped a historically red seat in the Morris County area that moved from 52-47 Romney to 49-48 Trump, and she's been one of the strongest fundraisers in the House. The only Republican in the race is tax attorney Rosemary Becchi, who was running in the neighboring 7th District until earlier this year. Becchi, who previously ran an anti-tax advocacy group, raised a credible amount in that seat last year during her uphill primary battle against establishment favorite Tom Kean Jr., but it's going to be very difficult for her to match Sherrill.
● NM-03: Former deputy secretary of state John Blair's new Democratic primary ad is a minute-long spot that features the candidate "giving out" his cell number to anyone over the course of the campaign, which then leads to Blair answering the phone in everyday situations for mild comic effect (one instance sees Blair telling a voter over the phone that he'll take on the drug companies as he loads his grocery cart with snack food, which his husband promptly puts back on the shelf as Blair walks past). Blair uses this setup to detail more about his positions and history of having worked under several top state Democrats.
Judicial
● WI Supreme Court: With only days left until the April 7 election, the Republican pollster Hodas & Associates has released a survey on behalf of the conservative Restoration PAC finding conservative incumbent Dan Kelly up by 36-29 over progressive Judge Jill Karofsky. Of course, with such a high share of voters undecided, it's anyone's guess how they might shake out even if this poll was accurate when it was in the field in from March 17-19.
Meanwhile, Karofsky dominated Kelly in fundraising for the period of Feb. 4 through March 23. Including donations from their state parties, Karofsky raised $1.9 million to Kelly's $592,000 and finished the period with $644,000 in cash-on-hand, more than Kelly's $396,000. Karofsky spent $1.4 million to Kelly's $658,000 over that same time frame.