Hello My Fellow Californians:
Stanford caused quite the controversy among Kossacks and other astute observers last week when it released preliminary data suggesting that the actual infection rate in Santa Clara County in early April was between 48,000 and 81,000 – not the official number of 996. The announcement was met with skepticism because the study did not test a random sample (participants were recruited on Facebook) and the test’s validity was, well, not established.
Now comes a second study, this time involving Los Angeles, from USC’s Sol Price School of Public Policy. The study suggests that by early April, hundreds of thousands of LA County residents may have been infected. Their preliminary data suggests that 4.1% of adults have antibodies to the virus – translating to 221,000 to 442,000 people in the county. At the time of the study, the county had fewer than 8,000 reported cases.
The percentage of infected residents found by the LA researchers - 4.1% - is in the same ballpark as the Santa Clara study, which estimated the percentage at between 2.1% and 4.13%.
As with the earlier study, there is much to contemplate here:
- We are nowhere near herd immunity. 4.1%? Fuggedaboutit. But we knew that.
- The viral spread from asymptomatic carriers is enormous. County health officials had no idea the virus was spreading in early February, much less killing its residents.
- Without ROBUST testing, early lifting of the quarantine will unleash the pandemic again, because we will never find the infectious and healthy-seeming Corona bros and gals. Testing testing testing!
- As more infected people are discovered, death rate or Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) gets smaller. The IFR varies wildly from location to location. Figuring out why some communities are devastated while others are spared by the virus remains a mystery.
BY THE NUMBERS:
Partial demographic data released by the state shows that the virus is disproportionately affecting some communities.
- Latinos account for a disproportionate rate of Covid-19 deaths in the 18-64 range. Latinos account for 58% of deaths among ages 18-49 and 43.3% of deaths among ages 50-64. This is by far the highest rates in these age groups.
- Black Californians are also over-represented in the over 18 cohort. Black residents account for 12% of deaths in the state, but just 6% of the population. Clearly that data has to get more specific as to where people live, but it is a start.
- 70% of the deaths have occurred in people 65 and older.
It was a rough Tuesday in California. Cases spiked almost 2000 to 35,826, and so did mortality (92 new deaths -1317 total). The Bay Area added 162 cases and 7 deaths, and LA County added over 1400 cases and 45+ deaths. (15140 cases, 663 deaths).
projects.sfchronicle.com/...
TESTING:
- More “It’s going to be great!” talk from the Governator. He is in danger of demotion in this blog from Prez of the Western States. California is near the bottom of all states in tests per million of population. Not acceptable, pal. Do better. Do much, much better.
Newsom stated weeks ago that he has executive power similar to the federal Defense Production Act. Well, use it. Get the state to manufacture its own tests. New York did it. Testing failure in California is a continuing disgrace.
- In the “Something is Actually Happening” Department: Kaiser is building a $14 million lab in Berkeley which will boost its capacity from 1,200 tests a day to 5,000. If swabs and reagents miraculously appear, they figure this could increase to 10k a day when it opens in early June.
- Who knew? The FDA just approved an at-home kit called “Pixel” by LabCorps. The test relies on nasal swabs, which are known to have a high rate of false negatives. The first run is for health care workers and first responders. You swab your nose and you send to a lab. It’s a small piece of the puzzle but every bit helps.
PREPARING (OR NOT) FOR THE TSUNAMI
San Francisco is still scrambling to find places to safely house the homeless. The city re-opened its biggest shelter on Monday after dozens had tested positive.
HOW YOU CAN HELP
- I Am So Glad You Asked: Recognizing that California will need an “army of volunteers” to help in this pandemic, the Governator has established “Californians for All”. It’s easy to sign up on the website.
I signed up right away and volunteered to do things from home: take 211 calls, contact tracing, (which I added in “other”) research, etc. Lawyers tend to be excellent interviewers – we can get information out of you before you even know we are trying.
It’s easy to sign up! I added lots of things in “other skills”. I mean, they can’t think of Everything you immensely talented people might be able to do.
IN THE NEWS
- Public health officials in Santa Clara announced that a person who died at home on February 6 was infected by Covid-19 at the time of death. That death was three weeks before the first fatality was reported in Washington State on February 28. In fact, a series of autopsies has made the county recalibrate its earlier findings that the first county death was on March 9.
Victims typically die, according to the Chronicle, approximately a month after they are infected with the virus. This suggests that the person who died in early February was infected in early January. At that time, the virus had only been reported in China. The hypothesis that the virus has been in the country much earlier than first thought is getting stronger by the day.
At best the virus was circulating widely in the county for weeks before public health officials realized it. As Santa Clara’s Dr. Sarah Cody stated, “Those deaths probably represent many, many more infections. And so there had to be chains of transmission that go back much earlier.” The deaths she is referring to occurred on February 6, February 17, and March 6.
- Netflix, which is based in Los Gatos, added 15.8 million new subscribers. Good. It means people are staying home.
- Orange County, not to be outdone by Florida, wants to open up its golf courses. Because of course it does. Still, golf lends itself to social distancing to some extent, so maybe it’s not a bad idea. Here’s an idea: walk, and carry your own clubs. Good exercise and you don’t have to worry about virus on the golf carts.
- Oh no! There was just a 3.7 quake center in Inglewood in Southern California. I love Inglewood. I lived there for 17 years and have family there. But the houses there have been through quakes before, including big ones. When I first moved to Inglewood, my neighbors told me they had lived through the 1933 quake, which killed 120 people and was also centered near Inglewood. Hope everyone is a-ok. It’s the last thing we all need right now.
NEWS YOU CAN USE
AND FINALLY…..
Tony Bennett, the 93-year old crooner and treasure of a person, has called on us to open our doors and windows and join him in a singalong of “I Left My Heart In San Francisco” on Saturday. The singalong is at noon. I shall remind you: We need to practice.
Don’t know the words? Clearly you are not a SF Giants’ fan, because they play it at the end of every game. So here’s a duet of Tony Bennett and Judy Garland singing it for you….