Georgia is turning Blue! As Civiqs found, presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden is leading impeached president Donald Trump 48-47, proving that Georgia is a top-tier presidential battleground this year.
That same poll also shows that Democrats are within range of picking up two Senate seats in the state. Georgia is going to be fierce this fall!
According to Georgia election law, anything below the presidential race, a candidate must hit 50% to win. If she or he fails to do so in the first round, there is a runoff election amongst the top two vote getters. It’s a scheme designed to disenfranchise Black Georgians, and thus it’s particularly effective against Democrats. As noted in the story discussing the presidential numbers of those polls, Black Democrats are 25% of the state. White Democrats are about 5% of Georgians. Meanwhile, 95% of all Republicans are white.
What that means is that while Biden may win the state with 48% of the vote, our Senate candidates—in both the regular election and the special—have to do a little better. The bad news, they’re not quite there. The good news? They’re within striking distance according to the latest Civiqs poll of Georgia for Daily Kos.
First, the regular election, against incumbent Republican Sen. David Perdue:
Perdue (R) |
45 |
Amico (D) |
42
|
Perdue (R) |
45 |
Tomlinson (D) |
44 |
Perdue (R) |
45 |
Ossoff (D) |
47 |
You may remember Jon Ossoff from his amazing special election run in suburban Atlanta in 2017—a race that presaged the Democratic shift in the suburbs and built the kind of in-district infrastructure that helped amazing Democratic Rep. Lucy McBath pick up the seat in 2018. (Daily Kos raised Ossoff’s first million, when no “serious” people thought the district was competitive because, you know, Georgia.)
Key finding here? Perdue is stuck at 45% in all three matchups, meaning that the difference among Democrats isn’t substantive, it’s a matter of name ID. Whoever emerges from this primary will be equally well-poised to take this seat.
The challenge, of course, is getting from 47% to 50%. While it would be nice for Joe Biden to hit 50% and drag the Democratic Senate candidates above that line, odds of that happening aren't great. And as noted, Democrats haven't performed great at the ballot box in what are always low-turnout runoffs. Could we change that equation this cycle? We may not have a choice with so much riding on our Senate majority.
The other Senate race is a special election to fill the seat being vacated by Republican early retiree Johnny Isakson. This is a “jungle primary,” which means all candidates from both parties run on the same ballot line. If no one gets 50%, the top-two vote getters move forward to the general election. First off, the jungle primary numbers:
Collins (R) |
34 |
Warnock (D) |
18 |
Lieberman (D) |
14 |
Loeffler (R-incumbent) |
12 |
Tarver (D) |
6 |
Someone else |
4 |
Unsure |
12 |
Appointed Sen. Kelly Loeffler may not survive to see this election, as the FBI is reportedly investigating her insider trading. As you night recall, she used information gleaned in secret coronavirus briefings to buy and sell stocks that made her millions, all the while claiming publicly that the virus was no big deal. Impeached president Donald Trump has left her flailing, as he always preferred Rep. Doug Collins for the appointment. Georgia Governor Brian Kemp thought he was being clever by appointing a rich self-funding woman to the seat. Instead, that blew up in his face.
Loeffler’s 12% in this poll shows she’s not a viable candidate. Her 21-59 favorability ratings among Georgia voters also say she’s not a viable candidate. Her 36-39 favorability rating among Republicans is the final nail in the coffin. She’s not going to win the special election. So we may very well have a scenario with one Republican in the race, Collins, while three Democrats split the Democratic vote.
We also polled runoff election matchups. I’ll skip the Loeffler matchups since, once again, she’s not viable and gets killed—running 12-13 points worse than Collins against Democrats. She is remarkably damaged, and it’s a wonder she hasn’t already dropped out.
Collins (R) |
44 |
Lieberman (D) |
44 |
Collins (R) |
44 |
Warnock (D) |
45 |
Collins (r) |
45 |
Tarver (D) |
42 |
Collins is stuck at that same 45% mark that Perdue is stuck at above. None of those Democrats are well known, though Raphael Warnock seems to be the favorite of the DSCC and I like him too—he’s not UCLA neuroscientist Matt Lieberman, related to the other horrible Lieberman, Joe. And former Georgia State Senator Ed Tarver’s 6% in the jungle primary means he’s not exactly catching fire. Democrats would be well served by consolidating around Warnock. He’s quite amazing, actually, and the senior pastor at Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta.
The unsures are quite high in these matchups, so it’ll be anyone’s ballgame, coming down to intensity of the vote. Whoever turns out will win the game.
So bottom line? We have a very real chance of picking up two crucial Senate seats in Georgia, dramatically boosting our chances of not just taking the Senate, but having a Senate that allows conservative Sens. Joe Manchin of West Virginia Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona the freedom to do their usual pain-in-the-ass crap without hurting our ability to pass legislation.
In the top tier, we’re looking really good in Arizona, Colorado, Maine, and North Carolina. We’ll likely lose our Alabama seat. That’s a net gain of three seats, and a 50-50 Senate. Whoever wins the presidency controls the Senate.
These two Georgia seats are in the 50-50 tossup second-tier, along with Montana. Depending on what happens if North Carolina Sen. Richard Burr is indicted on the same insider trading corruption that has effectively killed Loeffler, we might have a two-seat election in North Carolina as well.
Third tier, we have races in Texas and maybe Kansas, especially if white supremacist Republican Kris Kobach gets the nomination. He already cost his party the governorship in Kansas in 2018.
(Civiqs conducted its poll May 16-18, interviewing 1,339 registered voters with a margin of error of 3.1%.)