It’s hard to trust white people after they gave scared-in-his-bunker president Donald Trump the White House in 2016 (just a little over a third of white people—37%—voted for Hillary Clinton). And it is white people who have kept Trump’s approval ratings from falling below 40%. So given some erosion in his numbers due to botching our nation’s pandemic, i.e., a mass death event, it would be easy for the racist part of his white base to rally back seeing people protest in cities around the country. But … nope. Through Saturday, Trump’s numbers continue to edge down.
That 42-55 job approval rating is Trump’s worst since the 2018 government shutdown. And just as importantly, it reflects the two weekend days of protests that have pitted fighters for justice against increasingly aggressive, militaristic, and undemocratic police forces—all while Trump uses Twitter to further split the nation apart.
While white men have slightly moved away from Trump over the last month, they are still approving of his job by a net 20 points, 58-38. It is white women—the same white women who delivered Democratic victories in suburban America in 2018 and 2019—who are fully abandoning Trump.
Now here’s the interesting part: Educated white women have led that transition away from Trump. That’s why Democratic wins the last two years have been centered around white suburban America. They were formerly Republicans, and when they flipped, so did the suburban areas they live in. But something new is happening in America:
Non-college white women are following suit:
Here is the net shift in job approvals since March 20, the apex of Trump’s national disaster “bounce”:
Net approval |
3/24 |
5/30 |
Difference |
All women |
-21 |
-27 |
-6 |
All white women |
-2 |
-9 |
-7 |
Trump’s drop among women is being led by white women. Non-white women already hated Trump. Trump can’t go much lower with them, but white women were evenly split. Now, they’re less evenly split.
As noted above—and this is new—it is non-college white women who are leading the drop among those white women:
Net approval |
3/24 |
5/30 |
Difference |
Non-college white women |
+5 |
-3 |
-8 |
College white women |
-9 |
-12 |
-3 |
Those non-college white women approved of Trump by a 51-46 margin in late March, and now are at 47-50. The only time Civiqs has recorded a lower rating from that demographic was after Trump and his Republicans tried to kill the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) back in July of 2017. (There’s a reason Republicans aren’t running on “repeal and replace” anymore.)
What about men?
Net approval |
3/24 |
5/30 |
Difference |
All white Men |
+24 |
+20 |
-4 |
College white Men |
+16 |
+16 |
none |
Non-College white men |
+34 |
+28 |
-6 |
Those college-educated white men aren’t budging, though they support Trump at lower levels than their non-college educated bros. But again, this movement among non-college educated white men is the lowest since Republican attempts to eliminate the Affordable Care Act. That is Trump’s rock of a base.
Where does this show up ideologically? Here they are:
Trump has lost a whopping 15 net points among white non-college independents, from +11 net approval to -4.
Remember, non-college whites are his base. He won them 66-29 in 2016. He’ll win them again. But he needs even bigger turnout and margins among that demographic to offset what will be bigger turnout among base Democratic constituencies. And he won’t get that if he’s losing ground with them.
And if all that wasn’t encouraging enough, he’s also losing ground in the places he can least afford to lose it in.
Trump is underwater in every single battleground state, even in the “stretch” states of Iowa, Ohio, and Texas. And look at the changes since March 20:
Net approval |
3/24 |
5/30 |
Difference |
Arizona |
-9 |
-14 |
-5 |
Iowa |
+1 |
-4 |
-5 |
Florida |
-4 |
-7 |
-3 |
Georgia |
-4 |
-8 |
-4 |
Michigan |
-7 |
-13 |
-6 |
North Carolina |
-6 |
-9 |
-3 |
Ohio |
+5 |
-3 |
-8 |
Pennsylvania |
-4 |
-9 |
-5 |
Texas |
+5 |
-1 |
-6 |
Wisconsin |
-4 |
-9 |
-5 |
What those numbers mean is that Arizona and Michigan are falling out of Trump’s reach. It means that the tight states are all leaning Democratic, and it means that the reach states aren’t quite battlegrounds just yet, but they’re moving in that direction. An 8-point drop in approval ratings in Ohio is a big deal.
Now, as noted above, much of this movement is coming from non-college whites, and they may very well snap back to approval depending on how the protest movement evolves from here. But as of now, Trump has a lot to be unhappy about—he hasn’t just broken America and enabled the deaths of over 100,000 Americans, but it turns out that people just don’t like those things.