It's real, folks. New Civiqs polling of Iowa showing Joe Biden and Donald Trump deadlocked at 46% each has nothing but bad news for Republicans in a state Trump won by nearly 10 points in 2016.
The poll also gives Democrat Theresa Greenfield a three-point edge over incumbent Republican Sen. Joni Ernst, 48%-45%. Civiqs' findings come on the heels of an early June PPP survey that similarly put Greenfield up two points, 45%-43%.
Greenfield and Ernst both have a 39% favorable rating in the Civiqs poll, but the data shows Greenfield has far more room to grow in popularity. While Ernst has an unfavorable rating of 52%, just 31% of Iowa voters have an unfavorable view of Greenfield.
Greenfield-Ernst Favorable Rating
|
Greenfield |
ernst |
favorable |
39% |
39% |
unfavorable |
31% |
52% |
unsure |
30% |
9% |
Greenfield, who recently won the Democratic primary, has also shown early fundraising strength, outraising Ernst in the first half of the second quarter $1.5 million to $1.2 million, though Ernst maintained an edge of more than $2 million in cash on hand. Though the race wasn't originally viewed as competitive, a Des Moines Register poll conducted in early March by Iowa guru Ann Selzer found Ernst's approval ratings had slipped fully 10 points from the previous year, from 57% to 47%. PPP's recent survey put Ernst's favorability and job approval rating both at 38% favorable/approve, 45% unfavorable/disapprove.
Trump's approvals in the Hawkeye State have also taken a hit over the last several months. In the early days of June, Trump drew his worst job approval rating in the Civiqs tracking poll of Iowa since the government shutdown in early 2019, at 45% approve/52% disapprove. (The Civiqs survey from June 6-8 similarly found Trump's approvals underwater at 44%-53%.)
Note that Trump was at 49% approve/48% disapprove around mid-March, shortly after he declared a national emergency over the coronavirus and got a brief rally-around-the-flag bump. But his approvals started slipping in the last week of March as his administration began doubling down on scapegoating China for the pandemic—a move that was sure to kill the trade deal. Few voters have been more focused on Trump's trade deal with China than those in Iowa. Indeed, Trump Secretary of State Mike Pompeo took heat from Iowa farmers about the languishing deal in early March on a swing through the state. But after Trump and Pompeo killed a joint coronavirus statement from the Group of Seven in late March by insisting on calling it the "Wuhan virus," the only logical conclusion was that Trump's trade deal with China was also going down in flames. Trump's approvals in Iowa just got worse from there.
A few interesting cross tab tidbits about the Biden-Trump deadlock in Civiqs in comparison with the 2016 exit data from Iowa:
- Trump is only besting Biden among white voters in the state by three points, 48%-45%, while Trump beat Clinton among the demographic by 14 points. In 2016, white voters accounted for 90% of the electorate in Iowa.
- Biden is also fairing better against Trump with both women and men: winning women by 13 points, 54%-41% (Clinton won women by just seven points); and losing men to Trump by 17 points (36%-53%) while Clinton lost male voters by 28 points.
- Biden is beating Trump among independents in Iowa by eight points, 47%-39%, whereas Trump won independents in 2016 by 13 points. It's a key demographic because indies accounted for nearly a third of the electorate in 2016.
- Biden is winning the suburban vote 47%-44%; in '16, Trump won Iowa's suburban vote by nine points, 51% to 42% for Clinton.
The Trump campaign has reportedly started fretting about Trump’s positioning in both Iowa and Ohio, two states that were once considered GOP gimmes. Given the Civiqs data, it’s easy to see why.