Hi’,
Even as a foreigner I was able to understand the dynamic during the shutdown negotiations (diary). Covid relief negotiations were far less obvious to me.
Everything is telling us that democratic hold all the cards: republicans couldn’t pass a bill, McConman went into hiding, Trump resorted to his farce and Mnuchin is crawling back to the table, if only for pretense. Yet it’s not clear who is at an advantage and I couldn’t put my finger on why until the NYT accidentally put me on rails:
The standoff holds risks for both parties less than three months from Election Day. (NYT)
No. No, there is absolutely zero political/electoral risk for democrats here. At the absolute worst both parties will be equally blamed and bothsiderism will prevail. Well, bothsiderism is already the norm. Current numbers pretty much have it baked in. It won’t even depress turnout as people primarily care about getting rid of Trump. And that absolute worst scenario? Not happening. Beyond the dozen reasons for that, simple observation: while endangered republicans are sweating, their democratic counterparts are holding firm. In a purely abstract political game of power and seats, only republicans are at risk, and they risk a lot. (Also, keep in mind a republican talking point: passing the bill “could help Trump”. Consistency/20.)
But it is not just an abstract political game of power and seats:
Adhering to the adage that Congress works best on a deadline, aides and lawmakers have already begun to note the next one they might use to force compromise: when government funding lapses in seven weeks. (NYT)
SEVEN WEEKS?! If only some democratic speaker could put my feelings into words…
Ms. Pelosi rejected the suggestion that talks could drag into September.
“I hope not, no,” she said. “People will die.” (NYT)
Republicans were mighty happy with a month-long shutdown, so they are likely fine with letting people go homeless and starve for seven weeks. Meanwhile, democrats are not just appalled by the high toll on lives in this crisis, there are also cold economic and societal concerns (like the GDP or just having beggars in your uppity neighborhood) that even ex-republicans can process. I was also faced with the fact that this disaster, probably dwarfing that of the 2007 economic crisis, would be a slow burn, with no “airports closing” to force the GOP to cave.
This is why republicans still hold an advantage, they are sociopaths and democrats are not. Which begs the question, what kind of madmen could possibly have come up with this seven weeks deadline to resume tal...
(...) Senator Roy Blunt, Republican of Missouri, who said on Wednesday that he remained hopeful that lawmakers would reach an agreement before the next deadline that could create pressure to start talks again — the lapse of government funding before the new fiscal year begins on Oct. 1. (NYT)
It’s republicans. Of course it would be. And I’m jumping at conclusions here, it’s not what Roy Blunt explicitly said, it’s probably a more bipartisan assessment of the situation. But here is a simpler calculus. Republicans have no leverage, and they can hope to gain some by taking more hostages. Democrats have all the leverage and cannot hope to gain any with another shutdown, as republicans have already proved they couldn’t care less. To democrats, “seven weeks” probably is that neutral and helpless assessment of how long this could last. To republicans, “seven weeks” is an actual strategy. They must make it last seven weeks, somehow, to hold more cards. That, here, is the abstract political game of power and seats.
And this is why I felt like emphasizing those two points:
One: it’s not a political game. To portray it as such is missing the dynamic at play. Democrats are pressured to pass a bill not for political gain but to avoid another Great Depression. Republicans are purely pressured by electoral concerns, nothing else.
Two: the “seven weeks” deadline is a republican strategy, and it should be denounced as such.
(Third: hopefully once people realize Trump’s theater is just hot air the backlash will generate a far more realistic deadline.)