Many news outlets have recently begun softening their original assessment of the Wuhan lab-leak conspiracy (and others are jump head first down the rabbit hole). Without a doubt, there needs to be more investigation. But, it is important that we recognize a few important things before we jump on the “leak” bandwagon.
1. Most viral outbreaks stem from natural spillover. This has been true since the dawn of human existence, especially since humans began domesticating animals and living in clustered “civilizations:. HIV, Ebola, and H1N1 and smallpox are all such examples of viral spillover. Similarly, the RATG13 COVID virus that was discovered in southern China is 96% similar to SARS-Cov-2. Of course, 4% is a large discrepancy in the epidemiological world. Nonetheless, it doesn’t imply that the 4% comes from human intervention; but rather, that we simply haven’t found the direct animal-human spreader. Outbreak-origin investigations can take years, if an answer is ever discovered. Obviously, attempting to isolate the specific animal (or species) that is responsible for the “creation” of the virus, before it dies or clears the infection, is more challenging than finding the proverbial needle in a haystack. While 80,000 animals have been tested in China, this is but a fraction of the animals in the country. We still do not know the animal responsible for the 2013 Ebola outbreak.
2. There is still limited evidence, and the claims put forth that debunked the lab-leak conspiracy over a year ago still stand up to the scrutiny (primarily because little-to-no new evidence has been presented in support of the lab-leak theory). Wuhan, where a virology lab is, is a city of 11 million people with numerous already known coronaviruses floating around. It is no surprise that such a densely populated city with wet markets, train stations, airports, and other epidemiological problems associated with urbanization would be home to a new viral outbreak. Therefore, the burden of proof is on those attempting to PROVE the lab-leak, not the other way around.
3. In a similar vein, Kristian Andersen, a virologist at Scripps Research in La Jolla, California, found back in 2020 that the virus lacks signs of genetic manipulation (Andersen, K.G. et al. March 2020. The proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2. Nature Medicine). This natural mutation/evolution of the virus holds true in other realms as well, including in the furin cleavage site (“spikes”), which many other viruses have developed as an evolutionary advantage. Even the supposed “smoking gun”, the CGG nucleotides, have little actual weight behind them (David Baltimore of California Institute of Technology at Pasadena was the originator of this supposed “proof” of human manipulation. He himself recognized that, since 5% of the viral encoding has the CGG combination as well, that it very possible that COVID-19 evolved from nature) (www.nature.com/...). Other studies have found possible lines of lineage as well, possibly getting closer to the animal originator (Hua Guo et al. May 21, 2021. Identification of a novel lineage bat SARS-related coronaviruses that use bat ACE2 receptor).
4. The miners, who supposedly contracted the virus in 2015, all tested negative for COVID-19 antibodies. Granted, their antibodies may have dropped to a level below which the antibody testing could discover (further highlighting the possibly fleeting immunity to COVID-19), but it is unlikely. Also, it theoretically could be possible that China was able to culture COVID-19 from the miners/bats in the mine, lie about it/keep it hidden from the world for 4 years, and then cover up any relation to it when investigated again in 2020/2021. Theoretically...sure, but unlikely and something that has to be PROVEN, not launched wildly as a means of deflecting blame from a failed presidency. As Ethan Siegal of Forbes points out, none of the supposed “smoking guns” are defeat the null hypothesis of zoonotic spill-over (www.forbes.com/...).
5. Biden has called for official investigations, giving US intelligence 90 days to report on the possible origin of COVID-19. In fact, The Guardian reported that the Biden administration is leading the G7 in a push for more investigation (Miranda Bryant, June 10, 2021). Dr. Fauci has requested that China release medical records for those the WIV lab employees. China has countered that US labs should be investigated. While this is clearly a deflection, I can agree that our labs needs a thorough investigation and upgrade as well, as there is no doubt that the US has labs that are currently experimenting/messing around with things they shouldn’t be. Nonetheless, Biden (and Fauci, unleashed) is doing substantially more than Trump ever did (even though he often claimed to have evidence). Secretary of State Mike Pompeo claimed to have damning evidence of a lab-leak. He subsequently released no evidence (even after he was directly challenged by China to do so).
6. Lets pretend that the virus did leak from the lab. If so, it would mean that Trump knew about the virus even earlier, making his inept response even more appalling. His racist rhetoric, like “China-virus” or “Kung-flu”, would imply that he had information that he withheld from the public, information that led to the deaths of 600,000+ Americans. (You can call it “China-virus” only if you call the 1918 Flu pandemic the “American-virus”, since it originated in a military base in Kansas: www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/...) This, when combined with the evidence presented in Bob Woodward’s Rage, would only magnify Trump’s failure if COVID-19 leaked from a lab, not ameliorate it.
More research needs to be done. There is not doubt that we will one day live in a world where biological weapons are commonplace. Yet, we haven’t gotten to that point yet (and can’t absolve ourselves of the promulgation of pertinent technology in the future biological war, or our use of things like Agent Organ and other chemical weapons in the past).
We must not give credence to conspiracies, as the weaponization of such falsities is nothing more than a ploy to deflect and shift blame away from Trump (ineffective as this is) and continue the race war against Asians in the US. If anything, the entire investigation should be as a means to prevent another pandemic from occurring. Did China withhold the outbreak? More than likely. Did Trump have actionable information that he failed to pay credence to, resulting in the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Americans? Yes. We need an investigation into our healthcare system, our emergency stockpiles, a global alliance in preventing another pandemic, and a stronger plan of action for the next pandemic (there will be another one).
GK Smith
Political Scientist, Author of American [Dis]Information, available at Amazon.
