Whether a battle of attrition or a battle of annihilation the war continues with local counter attacks and slow Russian progress in the south. “Pentagon isn’t commenting on specific locations, but a senior defense official says ‘we’re starting to see indications’ that Ukraine is ‘now able and willing to take back territory.’” The air war increases on the Russian side only attempting to test Ukrainian air defenses and continue bombardment. For a brief period, the Russians weren’t picking up their end of the deconfliction phoneline that connects the US and Russia, but now seem to have corrected that problem.
Russian forces did not make any major advances on March 22 and Ukrainian forces conducted local counterattacks northwest of Kyiv and around Mykolayiv. Russian forces around Kyiv and other major cities are increasingly prioritizing long-range bombardment after the failure of Russian ground offensives but are unlikely to force major cities to surrender in this manner. Russian forces did not conduct any offensive operations toward the northeastern Ukrainian cities of Chernihiv, Sumy, or Kharkiv in the last 24 hours. Russian forces continued to further reduce the Mariupol pocket.
Key Takeaways
- Russian forces are likely moving to a phase of protracted bombardment of Ukrainian cities due to the failure of Russia’s initial campaign to encircle and seize Kyiv and other major cities.
- Ukrainian forces conducted successful localized counterattacks northwest of Kyiv.
- Russian forces in northeastern Ukraine did not conduct any offensive operations in the past 24 hours.
- Ukrainian forces repelled several Russian assaults in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in the past 24 hours.
- Russian forces continue to make slow but steady progress reducing the Mariupol pocket.
- Russia may have failed to appoint an overall commander for its invasion of Ukraine, leading to Russian axes of advance competing for limited supplies and failing to synchronize their operations.
Russian forces are likely moving to a phase of protracted bombardment of Ukrainian cities due to the failure of Russia’s initial campaign to encircle and seize Kyiv and other major cities. Russian forces continue to conduct air and missile strikes against both civilian and military targets across unoccupied Ukraine in the absence of offensive ground operations.[1] The Ukrainian General Staff reported at 6:00 pm local time on March 22 that Russian aircraft conducted over 80 sorties in the past 24 hours.[2] Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby additionally stated on March 21 that Russian forces have increased their long-range bombardment against Ukrainian cities in an attempt to force them to surrender.[3] Russian forces are unlikely to force Ukrainian cities to surrender with bombardment alone.
Immediate items to watch
- Russian forces will likely capture Mariupol or force the city to capitulate within the coming weeks.
- Russia will expand its air, missile, and artillery bombardments of Ukrainian cities.
- Russian forces will likely continue efforts to reach Kryvyi Rih and isolate Zaporizhiya.
- Russian forces around Kyiv will continue efforts to push forward into effective artillery range of the center of the city.
- Russian troops will continue efforts to reduce Chernihiv and Sumy.
- Mounting Ukrainian resistance in Russian-occupied territory would divert Russian combat power to rear area security.
www.understandingwar.org/...
- Fighting in and around the southern port city of Mariupol remains fierce, as Russia tries to claim a first strategic victory after weeks of fighting. It now includes naval shelling launched from the Sea of Azov, the senior defense official said.
- Near the southern city of Mykolaiv, there are now signs that the Russians are repositioning themselves outside the city to the south after facing fierce resistance from Ukrainians, senior U.S. defense official says.
- As reported elsewhere, there is a Ukrainian effort afoot to retake terrain they had lost to Russia. Pentagon isn’t commenting on specific locations, but senior defense official says “we’re starting to see indications” that Ukraine is “now able and willing to take back territory.”
- Still little clarity on Russian casualty numbers, after an unexpected report from a Russian tabloid yesterday said that more than 9,000 Russian soldiers had been killed. Russia has since blamed that report on a hack.
- The Pentagon is “aware of that incident,” but can’t say whether the report was a hack, a protest or someone “making a statement.”
- U.S. estimates of Russian combat deaths are still nebulous.
- “Even our best estimates are just that, and we have low confidence in them.”
- Continued discussion about Russia reinforcing its military in Ukraine. If it does so, the senior defense official says, “the most likely scenario would be that they would draw them from outside of Russia.”
- That said, other options are available for Russian reinforcements.
- “I can’t rule out that they wouldn’t pull out reinforcements from in Russia, too,” senior U.S. defense official says.
- President Biden raised yesterday concerns about Russia potentially using chem/bio weapons.
- The senior defense official says they still have no signs that anything is imminent, but Russian officials “continue to talk about this.”
- Some fidelity on Russian naval action. There are about 21 Russian ships in the Black Sea, senior defense official says. That includes 12 surface combatants and nine tank landing ships.
- Russian forces are still roughly in the same positions outside Kyiv: 15 km northwest of the city center, and 30 km east.
- “We just have not seen a lot of movement on their part.”
- Senior U.S. defense official says that its deconfliction line with Russia for this conflict is tested every day “and the Russians are picking up.” Calls that a “good thing.”
- Senior U.S. defense officials compares current U.S.-Russia deconfliction line for Ukraine war with a similar line set up years ago for operations in Syria that still exists. It has narrow goals, he implies.
- “It’s a deconfliction line. It’s not a complaint line.”
- Continued morale issues among Russian soldiers seen, senior defense official says.
- In addition to food and fuel shortages, the Pentagon now observes frostbite as an issue.
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The air war over Ukraine appears to have entered a new phase, with the Russian air force boosting the number of flights it makes per day by 50 percent and deploying an increasing array of Russian drones and munitions over the battlefield, according to U.S. defense officials and military analysts.
The expansion comes after Ukraine shot down numerous aircraft early in the war and despite the United States and its allies sending thousands of man-portable air-defense systems, or MANPADS, to Ukraine.
The missiles have forced Russia to adjust its aviation operations, but have not stopped them, analysts said. On Monday, a senior U.S. defense official said Russia had flown about 300 sorties in the previous 24 hours, up from an average of about 200 per day earlier in the war.
“It’s very likely that the Russian Aerospace Forces have modified how they’re conducting operations,” said Michael Kofman, the director of Russian studies at CNA, a Virginia-based think tank. “There is either attrition in a significant percentage of the Ukrainian air defenses, or they’re being a lot more careful about how they’re carrying out these sorties.”
The increase in Russian flights can likely be attributed to several factors, analysts said.
While there are gaps in information, it appears that Ukraine has concentrated the high-power air defenses it has in a handful of locations, including the capital, Kyiv, and the second-largest city, Kharkiv, Kofman said. That has left Russia more free to carry out an increasing number of airstrikes around the southern port city of Mariupol, where pitched urban combat is ongoing and Russia has its sights set on what would be its first strategic victory in the war.
“You haven’t seen a lot of Russian aircraft shot down around Mariupol, but you can see they’ve conducted a lot of strikes,” Kofman said. “You get the sense that the Ukraine military has decided to defend certain areas over others.”
www.washingtonpost.com/...
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine is coming soon to the country’s third-largest city, Odessa, often called Ukraine’s “southern capital.” The people of the city are in desperate need of weapons and humanitarian aid to survive the coming onslaught. So far, though, the international community isn’t focused enough on this crucial battle — and the window of opportunity is closing.
Odessa’s mayor, Gennadiy Trukhanov, told me during an interview that he doesn’t know exactly when Russian forces will attack, but ominous signs are everywhere. Russian warships are
probing the Black Sea beaches and shelling parts of the coastline, indications an amphibious invasion force might soon be on the way. Ukrainians have tried to mine the beaches, but there aren’t enough mines to go around. Military units are positioned to resist any landing, but Ukrainian forces don’t have enough antiship weapons, such as Harpoon missiles, to keep the Russian fleet at bay.
The Russian ships that threaten Odessa from the sea represent only one prong of an expected three-pronged attack. Thousands of Russian ground forces with heavy equipment are pushing toward Odessa from the east, though they are meeting stiff Ukrainian resistance. To the west, the mayor said he expects Putin to activate Russian troops already stationed in Transnistria, a Moldovan territory occupied by soldiers Moscow calls “peacekeepers.”
www.washingtonpost.com/…
Satellite imagery from
@planet on 24 February shows what appears to be burn marks on the ground in a field in Russia, near Ukraine's border. The location of these marks are about 50km north of Kharkiv. Location: 50.444247, 36.448983
Further satellite imagery shows more burn scars from a nearby field within Russia, 20km south of Belgorod. Location: 50.453972, 36.444306
On satellite imagery from Feb 24 we also identified these vehicles that had moved into this field in Russia, just 12km from Ukraine's border, indicating a possible new launch site. Location: 50.414997, 36.514869.
We have also added satellite imagery from March 15 to the map (maphub.net/Cen4infoRes/ru…), which shows possible launch sites and burn scars much closer to Ukraine's border, but still firing from within Russia. Location: 50.330751, 36.338310
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