The UK sees the coming weeks as involving major combat in eastern Ukraine even though what should have been major combat in the battle around Kyiv had an unexpected result. The capture of a major Ukrainian pro-Russian oligarch does signal more difficulties for positioning a puppet government. Similarly, the disinformation campaign centering on denazification becomes more difficult as more Russian atrocities against civilians are revealed including the continuing use of cluster munitions in the new conflict areas.
Russia continued offensive operations in eastern Ukraine on a limited basis as it worked to reconstitute forces withdrawn from the Battle of Kyiv and to establish necessary logistical bases for increased offensive operations in the Donbas area. Russian forces withdrawn from the Kyiv region have not yet been reintroduced into Ukraine to fight. The Russian military has continued to conduct small-scale limited offensive operations on the Izyum and Severodonetsk axes and has not yet gone over to a better-resourced or broader offensive campaign. The Battle of Mariupol continues even as Ukrainian officials accuse Russia of using chemical weapons on Mariupol’s defenders.
Key Takeaways
- The Russian military continues offensive operations in Donbas and is not in a pure reconstitution phase. It has not undertaken an across-the-board operational pause while waiting for reinforcements to arrive. In part, as a result, it has made limited gains while continuing to sustain significant losses.
- Mariupol has not yet fallen.
Main effort—Eastern Ukraine
Subordinate main effort—Mariupol (Russian objective: Capture Mariupol and reduce the Ukrainian defenders)
Ukrainian sources alleged that Russian troops used unspecified chemical weapons with suffocating effects on Ukrainian defenders and civilians in Mariupol on April 11.[4] ISW has not been able to independently verify these specific allegations but has repeatedly warned that Russian troops might use chemical weapons.[5] Mariupol is an optimal location in which Russian forces might use chemical weapons to demonstrate their willingness to escalate while reducing the risk that the international community could obtain incontrovertible proof of their violation of Russia’s international legal commitments to abstain from using such weapons. Russia’s encirclement of Mariupol allows Moscow to prevent outsiders from obtaining physical evidence or interviewing or examining survivors, and Russia’s control of the information coming out of Mariupol makes it difficult for survivors to show clear evidence of their symptoms to the world.
The Russian military continues efforts to reconstitute forces damaged in the failed attack on Kyiv in the Belgorod and Voronezh areas but has not yet sent those forces back into Ukraine to resume fighting. Ukrainian reports suggest that morale and will to fight remain low in some Russian units and areas. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on April 12 that elements of the Russian 41st Combined Arms Army and the 90th Tank Division are relocating to Belgorod and Voronezh Oblasts.[1]
The Ukrainian Defense Intelligence also claimed on April 12 that Russian troops continued to struggle with low morale and that promised financial incentives to participate in combat in Ukraine have not been delivered to some units as promised.[2] The report stated that servicemen of the 47th Guards Tank Division of the 1st Tank Army failed to receive promised additional payment for participating in operations in Ukraine and that military leadership ignored appeals for payments.[3] The Ukrainian GUR claims that Russian troops are refusing to participate in fighting due to the number of bodies returning to Russia from Ukraine and that the Russian military is shipping bodies in smaller batches to avoid causing panic in local communities.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his administration have pleaded for more sophisticated weapons to counter the Russian military’s technological advantages. Ukraine’s military has defied initial expectations and mounted a ferocious resistance, having already staved off a bloody, weeks-long assault on the capital, Kyiv, that was aimed at toppling Zelensky’s administration. As a result, Russia has shifted its objectives, consolidating its assault on key cities in the south and in the east.
Ukrainian defense minister Oleksii Reznikov spoke with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Tuesday, Kirby told reporters during a news briefing at the Pentagon. The discussion was part of a “constant dialogue and conversation” between the two officials and focused in part on the weapons and other assistance being provided to Ukraine. Additional details were not disclosed, but Reznikov wrote on Twitter earlier this week that Ukraine is seeking additional unmanned aircraft, air-defense systems, artillery, armored vehicles, combat aircraft and anti-ship missiles.
Some of the weapons expected in the next package are new to Ukrainian troops and would probably require training before they can be used in combat. A senior U.S. defense official, speaking on the condition of anonymity under ground rules set by the Pentagon, told reporters Tuesday that the Biden administration is open to doing so if it fills specific needs for Ukraine.
www.washingtonpost.com/...
- "I don't have a whole lot of updates today from yesterday... We're up to more than 1,540 missile launches. [Russian] Air strikes continue to be focused on Mariupol and the Joint Force operation area there to the east, and Donbas."
- "The convoy that we've been talking about is still north of Izyum about 60 kilometers or so, and we do assess that it's moving, but not at breakneck speed... It includes some command-and-control elements, some enablers and we think it's also intended for resupply,"
- "There is still heavy fighting around Izyum right now, and Russian forces do remain south of Izyum, again, about 20 kilometers or so, which is not a huge change from where it was before."
- "we're still trying to monitor that -- these reports, but we cannot confirm the use of chemical agents at this time"
- "We would not push back on the idea that they [Russia] are trying to hit Ukrainian -- the Ukrainians' ability to sustain themselves in the fight so that they certainly have shown an interest in trying to hit logistics and sustainment for the Ukrainians"
- "But as they begin to focus on the east, as they now start to reinforce their positions there, create a command-andcontrol organization, as well as logistics and sustainment, it follows a certain logic that they would also try to deny the Ukrainians some of those same advantages"
- "So we would assess that Russian assessed available combat power -- and again, I want to remind you guys that that's of the combat power that they preassembled before their invasion. We estimate that they're just above 80 percent in terms of what's left of them."
- "Yes, the convoy's north of Izyum. I don't know its final destination, but I would remind that, you know, with the spring weather they have to stay on the paved roads. They're staying on highways and avenues. They're not going off-roading here."
- "No, and I have not seen -- we haven't seen indications that the Ukrainians have attempted attacks on the convoy yet."
- "We would assess that the Ukrainians still have -- they still have the majority of their air defense available to them, but they have been clear that they want to boost their inventories for air defense capabilities."
- "They've been clear that they want more aircraft. And again, as you know, we're talking to allies and partners about doing what we can to help them get more long-range air defense systems."
- [on the reported chemical attack ] "we know that the Russians have a history of using chemical agents. And they have shown a propensity in the past, and so we're taking it seriously."
- [When asked about Russian SEAD efforts] "I don't know if I'd say suppression. I mean, as I said earlier, we believe they're going to try to improve their ability to sustain the fight and try to deny the Ukrainians' ability to sustain the fight. And part of that is air defense."
- {on the initial order of Switchblades] "A significant amount of the first 100 we know are in Ukraine. But it's not all 100."
- "We're not on the ground with them. And they're not telling us, you know, every round of ammunition that they're firing and at who, and at when. I mean, we may never know exactly to what degree they are using the Switchblades."
- [On potential Russian chemical weapons attacks] "Again, not in a position to confirm that that happened at this point. And I'm not enough of a chemical expert to tell you exactly what those agents would be, and how you would mix them...
- ...I would point you to my college transcripts, where I got a D in organic chemistry and was forced to change my major. So I'm not exactly the right guy to talk about that."
- "I would just tell you that we have been very clear both publicly and privately with the Ukrainians what our expectations are for the proper treatment of prisoners of war."
- "My understanding is that we don't earmark for particular units. These items are not sitting around very long. Once they get into the transshipment sites they are palletized and put on trucks, those trucks are picked up by Ukrainian armed forces and taken into Ukraine...
- ...And then it's up to the Ukrainians to determine where they go and how they're allocated inside their country."
- "What we try to do is talk to them very frequently about their needs, and not just at the secretary’s level but below that, to get a sense of what they want, and then we try to coordinate the delivery of that stuff not just from us but other nations...
- ...and get them on trucks as fast as we can."
- "Switchblades are a great example. This is a system that the Ukrainians were not familiar with but that we believe, based on talking to them, that it could be valuable. And so we did conduct some brief training with a few of them as we talked about."
- "I am not going to get ahead of future drawdown packages and what that might look like. But if we determine, in concert with the Ukrainians, that there's additional systems that they need that we can provide but that might require some training...
- ...then we're certainly willing to talk to them about that and what that would look like."
- "We are flowing things in every single day. And you want to flow things in in a way that the Ukrainians can properly receive it and use it and are ready to receive... We are in constant communication with them about what their needs are and about what's getting in and when."
- Q: And then, perhaps related, have you seen evidence that the appointment of General Dvornikov to oversee operations in Ukraine, has that already changed any of the tactics or strategy of the Russian forces there with regard to potential chemical weapons use or for anything else?
- SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: No.
- [On Russian airstrikes] "the Russians have concentrated their efforts now in a smaller geographic area... They have now collapsed their efforts now to the east and to the south"
- "it could also change... we don't know how this fight's going to unfold. And we can't be perfectly predicted that the Russians won't step up their number of air strikes, you know, if they feel they need to...
- ...So, again, it's difficult to get inside their head and know exactly what they're doing and what they're going to do next."
- "Still assess that in the Black Sea, theyve got a little less than a couple of dozen ships, the biggest number they have are surface combatants. They also have some LSTs as well. We still assess that a large part of their focus, particularly in the Sea of Azov, is replenishment."
- "They've got some surface ships in the northern Black Sea, kind of sprinkled throughout it we believe likely intended to support activities on the ground, and then again, in the Sea of Azov, I think five ships right now in the Sea of Azov, a mix of frigates and minesweepers."
- "on the chem/bio stuff. I don't think we have provided them {Ukraine} any detection equipment, but I don't know and I don't want to guess."
- "Yesterday, two U.S. flights arrived in the region with everything from small-arms ammunition, machine guns, body armor, grenades and other explosives. In the next 24 hours, we expect another flight from the United States to arrive with similar things in it."
- "So of the just-slightly-more-than 20 flights that we expected to be required to close out that $800 million, we are at 19, so we're very close to finishing it out... We believe we'll be done by the middle of the month"
- "We're also working on the next one, which you know is $100 million for the Javelins, and we expected that that, that's the latest drawdown- we call that ‘PDA 5,’ with the Javelins should be finished by -- also by mid-April, so we're moving on both of them"
- "if a nation wants to provide fighter aircraft to Ukraine, then that's up to them to decide and for them to speak to, our objection to the previous proposal was that the country in question expressed a desire to transfer them to our custody for us to deliver to Ukraine."
- "We did not object to the idea of the provision of aircraft to Ukraine, and that would be a decision for Slovakia to make. I am not aware of any discussions that we are having with Slovakia with respect to this particular idea. But we certainly would not object to it."
- {On backfilling Slovakian AD capability with Patriots} "I know of no discussions about potential backfill for this proposal. In fact, I mean, I don't believe we're actively tracking this idea of Slovakia providing the MiGs."
- "I would just tell you that we continue to provide information and intelligence to the Ukrainians that are helping them in their fight against the Russians. But it's their fight against the Russians, and we don't dictate to them what their operations ought to look like."
- "We don't expect them to tell us in advance what they're going to do, and we're doing everything we can to help them defend themselves. That includes in the information sphere, but that's as far as I'll go."
• • •
H/T
@phildstewart @idreesali114, who just reported a new $750 million package is expected soon. Our reporting has that same number.
UPDATE: Defense official says tonight that helicopters will NOT be in package, despite earlier discussions they would be. As our initial story says, there was uncertainty over what would make final cut.
Other systems, including artillery and Humvees, appear to be a go.
• • •
President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia said on Tuesday that peace talks with Ukraine had reached a “dead end” and he falsely called the evidence of Russian atrocities in a Kyiv suburb “fake,” using his first extended remarks about the war in nearly a month to insist that Russia would persist in its invasion.
Speaking at a news conference at a newly built spaceport in Russia’s Far East, Mr. Putin said that Ukraine’s negotiating position at the talks, last held in Istanbul two weeks ago, was unacceptable. He pledged that Russia’s “military operation will continue until its full completion.”
President Vladimir V. Putin described Western unity in support of Ukraine as nothing but evidence of Europe’s status as America’s “poodle.” European leaders pushing sanctions against Russia, he predicted, would suffer economic backlash at home while failing to influence what happens in Moscow. “They always miscalculate, not understanding that in difficult conditions, the Russian people always unite,” Mr. Putin said.
www.nytimes.com/...
WASHINGTON — Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken said on Tuesday that governments around the world, including in Russia and China, grew more repressive last year, as the State Department released its annual report on global human rights.
The department’s 2021 Country Reports on Human Rights Practices echoes President Biden’s warnings that authoritarianism is on the rise worldwide. Its introduction cites “continued democratic backsliding on several continents, and creeping authoritarianism that threatens both human rights and democracy — most notably, at present, with Russia’s unprovoked attack on Ukraine.”
www.nytimes.com/...
The Russian opposition activist Vladimir Kara-Murza has been detained in Moscow after criticizing President Vladimir V. Putin for the invasion of Ukraine.
Mr. Kara-Murza was due to appear in court on Tuesday on charges of disobeying the police, a local news agency quoted his lawyer, Vadim Prokhorov, as saying. The activist was detained near his home and held overnight at a central Moscow police station without access to his lawyer, his wife said in an email.
www.nytimes.com/...
Ukraine Intelligence Chief Kyrylo Budanov believes that the failure of the mobilization plan in Russia is forcing the Putin regime to launch dirty scenarios in order to emotionally stir up Russian society and consolidate it even more against the Ukrainians.
“To do this, they are planning explosions in Russian residential buildings or rocket attacks to blame the Armed Forces of Ukraine and volunteer battalions in order to create an emotional picture of the “atrocities of Ukrainian nationalists,” Budonov explained.
It is possible that the terrorist attacks, organized by the special services of Putin's Russia, will be peddled by Russian officials as revenge carried out by Ukrainians for Bucha and Kramatorsk, where Russian war criminals committed mass atrocities and genocide against civilians.
“In recent days, the Russian authorities have been increasingly dispersing the flywheel of anti-Ukrainian hysteria. Trenches are being actively dug in the Belgorod and Kursk regions , panic is being whipped up about the imaginary offensive of Ukrainian volunteer battalions and sabotage groups,” Budanov stressed.
He recalled how Putin's rule began with FSB terrorist attacks against Russian apartment buildings, which became the basis for the launching of the second Chechen war.
This is yet another warning and sign of Russia preparing to carry out false flag operations to provide justification for their genocide campaign in Ukraine.
olgalautman.substack.com/...