Russia could be implying that "unpredictable consequences" means launching a tactical nuclear weapon at Kyiv, perhaps at Zelensky himself. Retaliation strikes since the sinking of the Moskva have increased including a strike near Kyiv. The next phase of major combat has yet to begin, although attacks continue. The revelation of atrocities against civilians also continues, as does the flow of disinformation and the apparent lack of diplomatic negotiations.
Key Takeaways
- Russian forces continued to grind down Ukrainian defenses in southwestern and eastern Mariupol, though ISW cannot confirm any major new territorial changes in the past 24 hours. Ukrainian defenders reported that the situation is “deteriorating” and Russian forces are deploying additional artillery and heavy weapons.
- Russian forces continued unsuccessful daily attacks against Rubizhne, Popasna, and Marinka and heavy shelling along the line of contact in eastern Ukraine.
- Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks from Izyum toward both Slovyansk and Barvinkove.
www.understandingwar.org/...
Russian forces continued small-scale, tactical attacks on the Izyum and Severodonetsk axes; additional reinforcements to date have not enabled any breakthroughs of Ukrainian defenses. Russian forces continue to deploy reinforcements to eastern Ukraine but show no indication of taking an operational pause. The Russian military appears to be carrying out an approach in eastern Ukrainian similar to its failed efforts north of Kyiv in early March—continuing to funnel small groups of forces into unsuccessful attacks against Ukrainian defensive positions without taking the operational pause that is likely necessary to prepare for a more successful offensive campaign. Russian forces continue to grind down Ukrainian defenders in Mariupol, though ISW cannot currently assess how long these forces will hold out and their current supply status.
www.understandingwar.org/…
ISW has updated its assessment of the four primary efforts Russian forces are engaged in at this time:
- Main effort—Eastern Ukraine (comprised of two subordinate supporting efforts);
- Supporting effort 1—Kharkiv and Izyum;
- Supporting effort 2—Southern axis;
- Supporting effort 3—Sumy and northeastern Ukraine.
www.understandingwar.org/...
Subordinate main effort—Mariupol (Russian objective: Capture Mariupol and reduce the Ukrainian defenders)
Russian forces continued to grind down Ukrainian defenses in southwestern and eastern Mariupol on April 15, though ISW cannot confirm any major new territorial changes.[2] The commander of Ukraine’s 36th Marine Brigade stated on April 15 that the situation in Mariupol is “deteriorating” and that Russian forces are “aggressively attacking” Ukrainian positions but said Ukrainian forces would not surrender.[3] Petro Andryushenko, advisor to Mariupol’s mayor, said Russian forces are deploying unspecified heavy weapons and artillery to the Iliych area to support assaults on the Azovstal Steel Plant, though ISW cannot independently confirm this report.[4] The Ukrainian Defense Ministry reported that Russian long-range Tu-22M3 bombers struck Mariupol on April 15 for the first time in the war amid continued heavy Russian shelling and widespread reports of damage to the city.[5] Russian forces will likely increase their pace of air and artillery strikes due to the slow pace of ground assaults against entrenched Ukrainian defenders.
We now know that these words were empty threats, described by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg as “nuclear saber-rattling.” According to senior Biden officials with whom I’ve spoken personally, it turns out that Putin did not change the alert status of his nuclear forces. A week later, former president Dmitry Medvedev, now deputy head of the Russian Security Council, explained that Russia “reserves the right to use nuclear weapons if it faces an existential threat, even if the other side has not employed nuclear weapons.” No country is threatening to attack, let alone eliminate, Russia.
There is also concern that Moscow might try using tactical nuclear weapons within Ukraine. If faced with defeat, so the argument goes, Putin might be compelled to terrorize Zelensky and Ukrainians into capitulation.
Yet this scenario is also highly unlikely. Crossing this threshold would alienate many counties currently sitting on the sidelines, including first and foremost China. Russia would become even more isolated internationally. Moreover, the use of nuclear weapons would endanger domestic support for the war. Russians do not condone the use of nuclear weapons. Most analysts assume that this second use of nuclear weapons in world history would force Kyiv to surrender. I’m not so sure. The Ukrainians’ cause is just; their will to fight is extraordinary. After a nuclear attack, Ukrainians would be more likely to double down than capitulate, and could even try to take the war to Russia.
www.washingtonpost.com/...
The scale of the loss is yet to be seen. Ukraine claims it struck the Moskva with a Neptune anti-ship missile. No pictures of the Moskva or its crew have been published in Russian media since the ship was damaged. Some western reports suggest just dozens of the estimated 500 crew-members were rescued as the ship went down. Russia has not published any official information about the number of sailors who died.
So unlikely was the loss of the ship in Moscow’s eyes that in 2020 Orthodox Christian officials said it had been designated to carry a piece of the “true cross,” a relic from the wooden cross on which Jesus Christ is said to have been crucified.
At the very least it will strike yet another blow at the image of the Russian military as a professional force carrying out what the Kremlin calls a “special operation” on the territory of Ukraine.
The ship’s sinking was “in sharp contrast with the image of a successfully modernised army promoted by Russian officials and state-owned media, and with the self-confidence with which Russia embarked on this war,” wrote Alexander Baunov, a political analyst.