The war continues at the same tempo, with the Russian shortcomings obvious and enhanced by the unwillingness of the Ukrainians to confront the strengths of their BTGs. Rather the Russians’ effectiveness is not that high if deep, maneuver-based defensive “skirmish” tactics are used, which is how Ukrainians have managed to degrade a poorly organized but massive Russian army. Equally problematic is that the Russians counted on a quick takeover of the Ukrainian capital Kyiv and the so-called “second phase” presents problems for an enemy less capable of holding cities, relying instead on long range bombardment and hopes for encirclement.
The BTGs are designed for dynamic offensive movements, to rapidly conquer the given area, but they are not efficient in actually taking the control of that area. In tactical terms this translates into a necessity to deploy some of the mechanized infantry elements, or to use some of the pro-Russian guerilla units, to secure the fire support and logistical elements operations. The deficit in the infantry department also determines the doctrinal evasion of urban combat which is a trap for any armoured, and/or mechanized element. As no space for maneuver and firepower advantage are available, elements as such may be decimated by light units carrying out a behind-the-lines maneuver defensive effort. As a result of the above, the Russian doctrine assumes that the towns shall be conquered at once, while if resistance is met, the towns shall be encircled, isolated, and sieged, for the resistance to be broken4.
defence24.com/...
The core of the Russian BTG is formed by
- Motorized/mechanized infantry battalion,
- MBT company, (main battle tank)
- Self-propelled howitzers company,
- Rocket artillery battery2.
Equipment-wise, in case of the BMP-2-equipped mechanized companies, the individual elements use the inventory as follows:
- MBT company: 10 – 13 x T-72/T-64/T-80/T-90;
- Mechanized battalion: 40 - 45 x BMP-2 (three mechanized companies: 11 – 14 x BMP-2 plus the battalion-level command)3;
- Self-propelled howitzers company: 6 x 152mm 2S3 Akatsya;
- Rocket artillery battery: 6 x 122mm BM-21 Grad.
defence24.com/...
Key Takeaways
- Russian forces prioritized advances east and west of Popasna in order to cut Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) southwest of Severodonetsk and complete encirclement efforts in Luhansk Oblast.
- Russian forces have likely entered Lyman and may use this foothold to coordinate with advances southeast of Izyum to launch an offensive on Siversk.
- Russian forces may start the Battle of Severodonetsk prior to completely cutting off Ukrainian GLOCs southwest and northwest of Severodonetsk.
- Russian forces struck Zaporizhzhia City in an attempt to disrupt a key logistics hub for Ukrainian forces operating in the east.
Main effort—Eastern Ukraine (comprised of one subordinate and three supporting efforts);
- Subordinate main effort- Encirclement of Ukrainian troops in the cauldron between Izyum and Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts
- Supporting effort 1—Kharkiv City;
- Supporting effort 2—Southern axis;
- Activities in Russian-occupied areas
Immediate items to watch
- Russian forces are likely reinforcing their grouping north of Kharkiv City to prevent further advances of the Ukrainian counteroffensive towards the Russian border. Russan forces may commit elements of the 1st Tank Army to Northern Kharkiv in the near future.
- Russian forces are prioritizing cutting off two major highways to Severodonetsk but may start to storm the city before they successfully cut GLOCs.
- Occupation forces in Mariupol will continue to strengthen administrative control of the city but are likely unsure as to what the ultimate annexation policy will be.
- Russian forces are likely preparing for Ukrainian counteroffensives and settling in for protracted operations in Southern Ukraine.
- Organization of the BTG elements is tailored for an offensive profile of operations, designed to rapidly capture the terrain and accomplish the objectives;
- A relatively low number of infantry elements remaining at the BGT's disposal, making it impossible to effectively cover the flanks, and the back end of the units;
- The BTGs are highly effective when position defence strategy is adopted by the enemy, thanks to the ability to focus the support fire, the effectiveness is not that high if deep, maneuver-based defensive tactics are used, with the elements being scattered;
- The BTGs are sensitive to any losses, as any losses translate into a rapid deterioration of effectiveness, due to the reduction of potential which usually translates into a necessity to carry out a complete restoration, to recover the lost capabilities5.
defence24.com/…
Neither would actually fall into the category of street-legal crotch rockets such as the Japanese Kawasaki Ninja or Italian Ducati 1199 Panigale, but the Delfast e-bikes were designed to go off-road and thus are well-suited to hit-and-run strikes against Russian military columns. The electric bike’s long-travel suspension and ability to carry heavy loads has made it particularly useful for navigating forested trails or “overlanding” where trails are nonexistent.
Because these are electric-powered, the bikes are also far quieter than similarly sized two-stroke gasoline-powered dirt bikes. That can allow a team of two to get close to an enemy unit, use the man-portable rocket launcher and dash away quickly.
“Delfast, an #Ukrainian company making electric bikes, gave a batch of electric bikes to the Ukrainian forces which are able to carry NLAW anti tank launchers,” Heuvelrug Intelligence (@HillridgeOSINT), an open-source military analyst group, tweeted earlier this week while sharing images of the Delfast bikes.
Another local Ukrainian company, ELEEK, has also reportedly been supplying its country’s armed forces with silent, powerful electric motorbikes for use on the battlefield. Those electric bikes were requested for use by sniper teams and subsequently employed in a similar fashion. The ELEEK can allow the teams to get into position, take the kill shot, and then get out far faster than would be possible on foot.
khaleejimotors.com/...
Parts of eastern Ukraine came under constant Russian bombardment. Russia is trying to take full control of the Donbas region that's become the main focus of its war in Ukraine. Fighting escalated especially near the city of Severodonetsk; the Luhansk region's pro-Kyiv governor said on Telegram 15,000 citizens remain in and around the city and Ukrainian forces are still holding out. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, that his country refuses to give up any land for an end to the war.
Zelenskyy and other Ukrainian officials offered condolences to the community of Uvalde, Texas, where a gunman killed 21 people — including 19 students — at an elementary school. Speaking by video at a conference on the sidelines at Davos, Zelenskyy also drew a link, citing tragic killing of children in both the shooting and the war in Ukraine.
Moscow could provide a humanitarian corridor for food shipments out of Ukraine in exchange for lifting of some sanctions, said Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko. Ukraine's foreign minister called the offer "blackmail." World leaders are warning of a looming global food shortage as Black Sea trade routes remain blocked, trapping Ukrainian exports of wheat, sunflower oil and other foodstuffs.
Russia simplified a path to Russian citizenship for residents of some occupied parts of southern Ukraine: Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions. Russian President Vladimir Putin also made the first public visit to a
Moscow
military hospital as
the Kremlin said he met with soldiers wounded in Ukraine. Russian lawmakers separately passed a bill to
widen the military-recruiting pool by lifting the age cap for people signing up for voluntary contracts, allowing for recruits between 40 and 50 years old.
A new European Commission proposal would permit European Union governments to seize assets of people or companies who evade EU sanctions against Russia. The proposal would streamline the law for all countries in the bloc, where member states vary in how they prosecute evasion of sanctions. The proposal also seeks to punish lawyers, bankers or any others who help circumvent sanctions.
www.npr.org/...
Russian forces are increasingly facing a deficiency in high-precision weaponry. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that due to an increasing lack of high-precision weapons Russian forces are seeking other methods of striking critical infrastructure and have intensified the use of aircraft to support offensives.[5] The Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) noted that up to 60% of Russia’s high-precision stockpile has already been exhausted, which is consistent with previous reports by Western defense officials that Russian forces have been increasingly relying on “dumb bombs” because they are facing challenges replenishing their supplies of precision munitions in part due to sanctions targeting Russia’s defense-industrial production.[6] A lack of high-precision weapons will likely result in an increase in indiscriminate attacks on critical and civilian infrastructure.
The Kremlin is attempting to expand the pool of Russian passport-holders in occupied areas. Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on May 25 that will simplify the procedure for obtaining a Russian passport within Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts.[7] This renewed campaign of so-called ”mass passportization” is occurring in occupied territories and likely represents an effort to set conditions for some sort of post-conflict political arrangement (the precise form of which Putin prefers remains unclear) through manipulating access to Russian citizenship.[8] Occupation authorities may additionally attempt to exploit this new decree to carry out covert mobilization in occupied areas, as having a Russian passport would make conscription-eligible residents of occupied territories subject to forced military service.
The Kremlin and Russian military commanders are introducing new regulations aimed at addressing the diminishing level of combat-ready reserves. The Russian State Duma and the Russian Federation Council passed a bill raising the maximum age for voluntary enlistment into the Russian military from 40 to 50.[9] Russian Telegram channels also reported that Russian leadership forced operational officers and commanders of the Russian Border Guards of southern Russian regions including Rostov Oblast and occupied Crimea to indefinitely cancel all summer vacations--a rather unsurprising step in light of the military situation in principle, but an indication of the next source of manpower to which Putin will apparently turn.[10] Russian Border Guards will reportedly deploy to training grounds for unspecified exercises in late May. The Ukrainian General Staff also reported that Russian forces are forming new reserve units within the Southern Military District.[11]
understandingwar.org/...
According to a tweet from Trent Telenko, Russia is reactivating some of its 2,500 venerable T-62 main battle tanks to replace huge losses of modern tanks in Ukraine. In January 2017, Russia delivered an undisclosed number of venerable T-62M tanks to Syria, as it did not consider they would ever serve anymore but nevertheless kept numerous ones in storage. Then comes the war with Ukraine…
As reported by Defence Express, Russia’s battalion tactical groups with such rare equipment (T-62M/MV tanks) are currently only being formed in the territory of the Russian Federation, according to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the morning report of May 23, which added that to replenish its losses, Russia uses evacuated units from the battlefield. Reactivated T-62M tanks have been spotted from March. Most likely, Defence Express speculates, the Russian army is forced to complete new battalion tactical groups with T-62s as with the regular battle tank. Defense Express reminds us that it’s not the first case where the Russian army is reactivating obsolete equipment from storage to conduct operations in Ukraine: obsolete Grad-1 MLRS were spotted in mid-April, for instance.
The T-62 is a development of the T-55. It was produced between 1961 and 1975. It became the standard main battle tank in the Russian armed forces and the Warsaw Pact during the Cold War, partly replacing the T-55, although that tank continued to be manufactured in Russia and in other countries. The T-62 entered service with the Russian army in 1961. Some forces in the world still use the T-62 as their standard main battle tank.
Among the several versions of the T-62, the T-62M entered service in the Russian armed forces in 1983. The tank is fitted with a V-55U engine and the R-173 communications system. The main armament of the T-62 is a U-5TS (2A20) 115 mm smoothbore stabilized gun that enables a maximum rate of fire of 4 rounds/min when at a standstill. The gun is fully stabilized in both horizontal and vertical planes. It is also armed with the Sheksna (NATO designation: AT-12 Swinger) laser beam-riding missile system and passive armor protection.
www.armyrecognition.com/...
We spent 10 days in Ukraine relaying what we had learned as the Republican co-founders of the anti-Trump Lincoln Project. But we were also there to learn about some of the most innovative data and analytical work being done in the first major war of the digital age. What we learned was both clear and ominous: The expert disinformation methods used by Russian intelligence agencies are being exported abroad as an emerging tactic of cyberwarfare. Ukraine is not only the battlefield of the first European war since WWII; it is also where this century’s balance of power is being defined. The consequences of this war will not be limited by geography and military might alone. Democracies must also learn to withstand authoritarian attacks spread on digital platforms. The attacks are fueled by data and analytic work designed not only to divide countries internally but also to propel citizens toward hatred and violence against other citizens with whom they disagree ideologically. Sophisticated misinformation ecosystems give rise to conspiracy theories that undermine traditional institutions and employ anti-democratic online threats and intimidation to stifle dissent.
www.sacbee.com/…