As kos reported earlier, Ukrainian forces began withdrawing from Severodonetsk on Thursday evening and as of Saturday all but a handful of troops are reportedly across the river in Lysyschansk. The last report still had Ukrainian forces holding out in the suburb of Borivske, but it can be expected—or at least hoped—that this force is small.
On the south of Lysychansk, Russian forces have reportedly moved into the edges of the city, but they’ll have to battle uphill through some closely spaced buildings if they want to proceed from that direction. On the west of the city, Russian forces have reportedly entered the area of the power plant at Verkhnokamyanka. That would be a threat to the power in Lysychansk … except it’s already out. The little pocket that extended down to Zolote a week ago is now extinguished.
To the southwest, Ukraine made an unexpected advance across a broad front, liberating a whole cluster of villages in the Donetsk region.
I’ve violated my own usual rules for coloring the map in leaving the whole area of advance as if in dispute, but I wanted to show just what a big slice of property was carved out in just two days. The top of that yellow area is where Russian control was on Thursday. Then came reports of Ukraine pushing down to the highway that runs from Zolta Nyva to Pavlivka. On Friday, the advance continued to three more villages 10km further south. Whether it is continuing at this moment is unknown, but there were no reports of serious Russian resistance.
Why Ukraine is pushing in this area isn’t clear. The closest position is still 75km from Mariupol, so this would currently not seem to be a threat to Russia’s “land bridge” between the Donbas and the Crimea. It may simply be a matter of Ukraine staying aware of the areas where Russia has drawn down troops to support the effort near Severodonetsk. If Ukraine can capture these areas with few losses, and without adding troops to the area … why not?
There were reports just three weeks ago that Russia was planning an advance in this same area, but this was followed by reports that some of the forces in this region had been drawn off by Ukrainian forces pressing toward Kherson. Ukraine may be engaged in a strategy of poking Russia in one place, grabbing territory that opens up, poking again elsewhere, etc.
In the Kherson area, most of the reports of activity on Saturday are at the north end of the line of battle. Ukraine has been pushing for some time to capture Vysokopillya, where Russia reportedly has stockpiled supplies and which had been their launching point for attacks to the north.
On Friday and Saturday, Ukraine went hard against two towns in the immediate vicinity of Vysokopillya. Russian forces reportedly fled the town of Olhyne after a Ukrainian bombardment, and in the village of Arkhanhel's'ke, which Russia was reportedly using as a command HQ Ukraine … well, that’s over.
The Ukrainian military issued an image of the town ...
And a video of Ukrainian forces at work on the Russian HQ.
Pushing back at this end of the line may not be as sexy as reports that Ukrainian troops are about to stroll into Kherson, but they’re important in reducing damage to Kryvyi Rih, which has been subject to repeated artillery attacks. Vysokopillya would now seem to be hanging out there in an extremely vulnerable position.
Further south, there has been no recent sign of activity from the bridgehead south of Davydiv Brid, and many reports have now made the assumption that Russian forces have eliminated the force on the east bank of the Inhulets River. However, there has been no confirmation of Russia recapturing villages that had been liberated by Ukrainian forces, so it seems early to be making that call.
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