A long thread rom Michael Bond:
It may be helpful for context to read the consolidations I put together in the last month
Combat Strength
Of an estimated 120 Battalion Tactical Groups (BTGs) committed by Russia to the invasion, most recently it was believed there were 105 BTGs in Ukraine.
“Skibitsky noted that 105 battalion tactical groups (BTGs) are taking part in the war in Ukraine and that Russian reserve capabilities could increase this number to anywhere between 150 and 160 BTGs but did not specify a timeframe for this mobilization.”
Here is the recent history of Russian BTG counts in Ukraine
There are regularly articles written that spell out the challenges facing those fighting for Ukraine both at the strategic and tactical levels. Here is a sampling
Interviewing a foreign fighter about battles in Severodonetsk
Chris Miller on setbacks
Rob Lee on new Ukrainian challenges now that they are attacking on some fronts
However, there are more positive assessments. US defense officials note that Ukraine is in better defensive positions
Retired general Mick Ryan writes about understanding Russian goals in an effort to develop plans to counter them
Kamil Galeev writes about how, in his opinion, the unequal distribution of economic consequences of the war within Russia will doom it in a long war
Russian Equipment and logistics
Due to the number of developments, I have grouped these updates on attack on ammo depots, precision guided missile inventories, partisan resistance, military industrial capacity and light equipment supply.
Attacks on Ammo Depots
There have been so many attacks on Russian ammunition depots that to keep them straight it is easier to list daily strike locations. Today’s list:
Therefore, maps like this one quickly fall out of date
Phillips O’Brien wrote about how these attacks seemed to be very systematic and they may be tied to other efforts to disrupt rail resupply ties
Professor O’Brien also noted the apparent reduction in volumes of artillery fire from Russia and the increasingly deep strikes being conducted by the Ukrainians as reflected in satellite mapping of evidence of fires
The impact of these strikes has the potential to be significant, as estimates of the volume of Russian artillery fire ranges from tens of thousands of rounds per day, up to this estimate from Ukrainian advisor Arestovych of 45k artillery shells per day
The effect of these attacks may be magnified because of the poor materials handling and safety practices in Russian ammo depots, as noted in this apparent excerpt from a US army handbook
As Trent Telenko notes in this detailed thread, these developments considerably change the back of the envelope math previously applied to Russian logistics and makes their situation much more difficult
While discussing logistics, I also note this serious blow via destruction of a large number of Russian supply vehicles, which are becoming more and more important
Through translations of critical blog posts by several Russian military observers, we see that concern over these attacks on ammo depots is shared
Roman Saponkov
Dmitriyev
Igor Girkin
Here is photo, video and satellite photo evidence of several of the strikes this week
Satellite photo comparison of strike location
In addition to strikes on ammo depots, it is noted that HIMARS and other long range systems have been used to strike Russian command and control centres
Precision Guided Missile Inventories
On June 28, President Zelensky stated that Russia had fired 2811 missiles. Previously, OSINT investigators of Bellingcat stated they believe Russia had fired 70% of its precision guided missiles
t.me/V_Zelenskiy_of…
This week, there were videos captured of several missile launches, of a variety of missile types and from both land based and ship based missiles, apparently failing.
Missile failure on a launch from a ship
Could this indicate poor storage or reliance on older munitions?
There were also several videos produced of Russian led forces using and transporting Tochka-u missile systems that Russia has claimed to retire.
Video of Tochka use by Russian PMCs
6 more Tochkas in transit
There were also reports of apparent failures of S-400 air defense systems to intercept presumed HIMARS strikes and even a report that an S-400 was directly destroyed in such a strike
There were also claims that S-300 air defense missiles have been used in surface to surface strikes
While it has been noted that this mode of use has been previously tested, there is doubt about its usefulness against ground targets
Partisan Resistance
Further to previous reports of increasing partisan resistance, there were several attacks noted this week:
This attack resulted in light damage to the train, none to the tracks
pravda.com.ua/news/2022/07/9…
Sabotage of rail line video
However, there was a separate (unconfirmed) claim of an ammo train destroyed in an attack
In another attack, partisans reportedly blew up a railway bridge near occupied Lyubimivka
While it is not known if it is destined for railroad repair in Ukraine, several train loads of Prefab rail lines were spotted being moved along the Russian side of the Ukrainian border
As a result, Russian is publishing videos of counter insurgency efforts
Military Industrial Capacity and Light Equipment Supply
Russian heavy military industry has not been stopped entirely by the impact of sanctions, as Uralvagonzavod announced delivery of a batch of BREM-1M to the Russian military
Russian industry is still producing fighter aircraft, in this case for export sale
In personal equipment we see:
Russia using old soviet helmets
Russian soldiers marveling at the superiority of Ukrainian equipment
Advance limited by numbers of UAVs to laze targets for PGMs
More examples of civilian GPS being used in combat aircraft
We continue to see Russia relying on crowdsourced gear
Chinese scopes on Russian machine guns may be among the privately funded equipment
Interestingly, several Russian regions/provinces are now being told to assist in directly funding military purchases from regional budgets
It is also reported that individual Russians are also donating to Ukrainian crowdfunding efforts and suffering the consequences from authorities, including fines and arrests
Captured Equipment
In recent weeks I have been incorporating figures for captured equipment into my larger thread on available forces. This week I am increasing my estimate of captures being suitable for reuse from 1/3 of observed captures to 1/2.
This increase is partly based on reports that Ukraine now has several companies made up of captured tanks
Russian displayed captured equipment in two locations this week:
Kubinka
Lysychansk – however, as this thread makes clear, most of these are previous captures now being displayed and not new captures in Lysychansk
Why are things abandoned and capable of being captured? Well, Ukraine will destroy equipment that they must abandon
However, some vehicles are abandoned in places where they are believed that they can be recovered. Sometimes the other side will make it a point to get there first, as in this example of capture of an abandoned tank in disputed territory
We see several examples of recaptured equipment
Recapture
Recapture
and a clarification about the way recaptures are counted by Oryx’s team
Captured tanks
One capture towing another
T-80s
T-80
T-72
T-72
T-72
Here are some rarer captures
Humvee
Ukrainian tank
Tunguska
Here is the list of the value of the drawdowns of US military aid as of a week ago
This was the full US list of equipment committed as military aid, as of three weeks ago
Along with the $450 million drawdown announced two weeks ago
$800 million announced last week
And this week’s announcement of a further $400 million in military aid
A new survey finds that US public support for Ukraine remains high
It is reported that US President Biden will attempt to free up soviet weapons for Ukraine from the Middle East in his upcoming trip
A report was produced this week on remaining sources of soviet and Russian arms for Ukraine
Interestingly, in a recent video a Ukrainian defense official argued against seeking former Soviet equipment in Africa and Asia
There was military support announced from Scotland and Wales
and more UK artillery is on the way
As you would expect, there is a steady stream of deliveries flying into Rzeszow, Poland
Ukrainian advisor Arestovych notes that weapons factories in some NATO countries are now working 3 or 4 shifts to increase production
Artillery and MLRS
Danilov stated that Ukraine had 9 HIMARS (however, only 4 were known to be in country with 4 more on the way at the time. His comments may have included some m270). Four more were included in this week’s US commitment, for a total of 12
While Ukrainian advisor Arestovych previously said he believed the west side of the Dniepr near Kherson could be recaptured with just 5 HIMARS, here is what the coverage of the eastern front line would look like with 13 units
Despite Russian claims, the US says no HIMARS destroyed
While HIMARS are being used to very good effect (as per the discussion of attacks on ammo depots above) Russian adaptations to HIMARS in process
While there were not as many artillery pieces committed this week as in recent weeks, six more PzH 2000 units were announced for a total of 12
Vehicles
Greece will be sending 30 APCs, as a ring exchange with Germany was agreed
Spartans from the UK arrived in Ukraine
a promotional video for Mastiffs from the UK was produced upon their arrival
We had one of the first sightings of Danish m113
Italian iveco ‘lince’
there have also been private Ukrainian purchases of Italian vehicles
Unfortunately we appeared to see the first losses of some western equipment, including:
a Czech BMP 1
and a vehicle mounted Brimstone missile launcher that was claimed to be destroyed
Ammunition
A US defense official said Ukraine is firing 3000 artillery rounds a day. The official said despite the high usage rate, Ukrainian forces still have “substantial stores” of 155mm rounds and are far from running out with more rounds on the way
We’ve supplied it, other countries have supplied that,” the official said. “... We know what their use rate is, we know what their store rate is, and we're monitoring that as we continue to supply them capabilities
I don’t know how to reconcile these US claims with reports from the ground that ammunition can be in seriously short supply, for example as included here
It was noted that it was probably not ATACMS ammo for HIMARS
However, a Ukrainian defense official reported an informal remark that Ukraine had passed the test on HIMARS precision leading to speculation that eventual provision of the long range ATACMS ammunition was more likely
Germany also secured a supply of Gepard ammo from a Norwegian manufacturer, clearing the way for Germany to consider delivering these eventually
Small arms
Ukraine received improved land mines, including from France
There was a brief mystery as some claimed mortar rounds were sent by Taiwan
Taiwan officials said they did not provide them
and they were ultimately traced as Japanese manufactured bombs supplied by the US
However, Japanese helmets were seen being put to good use
and we got insight into the sorts of equipment provided to Ukrainian soldiers training in the UK
Drones, Planes and Missiles
The Lithuanian purchased Bayraktar TB-2 was briefly put on public display and then transferred to Ukraine
Lithuanian Bayraktar in Ukraine
We received more detail on previously announced UK drones being delivered to Ukraine
Ukraine made great initial progress on its ‘dronation’ program
along with various other crowdsourcing programs for Ukrainian drones
Various home made drone innovations were shown, including a launcher
DIY loitering munition construction
Shells to drop grenades
and an even simpler drone loading mechanisms
A video was released showing the perspective of attacking Switchblade drones
For those interested in anti-drone gun technology, Rob Lee has begun a thread tracking their use
Ukrainian Defense Minister Reznikov spoke about how the Israeli Iron Dome system was not appropriate to Ukraine’s needs
Ukrainian advisor Arestovych hinted that Ukraine had ‘something new’ to recently improve its ability to intercept missiles. It is not believed that the recently announced NASAMs air defense systems from the US are in Ukraine yet
Russia has focused efforts on attacking Ukrainian logistics capacity in the past several weeks, but these efforts have repeatedly failed to stop the flow of military aid. Tragically, infrastructure damage in occupied territory is much more common
It is the Russians who seem to be afraid of attacks on infrastructure, employing a reflective barge near the bridge over the Kerch strait to dazzle missile guidance systems
and practicing drills to obscure the bridge in smoke
Training of Ukrainian personnel
The UK has considerably increased its rate of training programs with over 1000 training in the UK now
This is an interesting article with additional detail on this training
In a video interview, a Ukrainian defense official noted:
Retraining crews on western tanks is possible, but it would take valuable time
The value of training via combat
Repair
There was an interesting video about a shop repairing a captured and damaged cannon – the replies to this post had much debate about the repair process effectiveness
A Ukrainian defense official gave several insights:
Tank repairs are conducted well behind the front lines, as personnel and repair equipment are too valuable to risk
Ukrainian tanks repaired out of country at 20-30/month
This same official claims that there are only 3 tank repair plants left in Russia
We got insight into Russian repair facilities at two sites:
BMPT ongoing maintenance
Russian repair warehouse
While not exactly repair, a rare Ukrainian medical evacuation flight to Leipzig was spotted. Hopefully this will become more common, as I am sure the need is great
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