As we approach the end of summer — and the end of Hope Springs from Field PAC’s canvassing efforts (we are transitioning over to Election Protection and Ballot Curing after Labor Day) for this year — volunteers keep asking about what is next (specifically, who’s going to lead the Fall canvassing in their area). And the answer is always the same, no matter where you live: look it up at mobilize.us for volunteer opportunities in your area. I know that i will repeat this a lot, but mobilize.us is a central volunteer hub for Democrats. Just like VAN, mobilize.us is a Democratic solution to a common problem. I know, i know, i repeat myself. Because we all need to know the tools at hand, and use them!
We’ve been canvassing in Central Florida (the I-4 corridor) now since June 14, 2021 with an Issues Questionnaire. And nothing has sparked voter interest as much as Ron DeSantis’ War on Disney. Voters we have talked to, from Volusia County to Hillsborough County, feel uneasy about efforts to upend the economic engine of Central Florida. And more than a few have specifically mentioned the fact that “nationalizing” (this is a term we’ve heard among Hispanic voters we have talked to, especially in Osceola county) Reedy Creek would saddle them with a $1 Billion tax bill. It’s no laughing matter. And this was before the recent surge in support for Democrats because of the Alito draft leak and the Dobbs opinion.
What we have been hearing — at the doors — is that Central Florida voters aren’t blaming Joe Biden for their economic concerns, they’re blaming Ron DeSantis. Granted, we don’t knock at the doors of GOP households so it’s not exactly a balanced view. But, still, 1 out of every 4 Florida voters lives within 25 miles of I-4. Whoever wins these 7 counties wins statewide elections in Florida. With one weekend to go, volunteers with Hope Springs from Field have now knocked on 439,750 doors (in 2022, that number does not include 2021) in Central Florida and completed Issues Surveys with 22,132 voters. All of this data is being entered into VAN (the Democratic database) and Democrats running in Central Florida have a huge (data-driven) advantage now going into the Fall. Our counterparts on the Right (AFP, Club for Growth, Libre Initiative) don’t (officially) share their data with Republican candidates (and, quite frankly, Daniel Garza thinks I am crazy for doing so) but we’re Democrats and this is a grassroots-driven effort, not a Koch-financed gig.
Here’s the thing: this kind of undercurrent (the prospect of a $1B tax bill about to be foisted on Central Florida taxpayers (after the election, of course)) could easily skew turnout and definitely will shape the electorate. One of our volunteers suggested we ask whether voters thought they were better off now than 4 years ago and why (our Issues Surveys ask the same questions across 8 states) because she thought people would be surprised at the answer. (We already see the effects in our question about DeSantis.) But the sentiment is clear: Republicans like Mitch McConnell wanted 2022 to be about Joe Biden’s leadership on the economy and people like Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis want it to be all about them. While those Republicans compete to control this election, voters are talking about kitchen table concerns that blame those very GOP leaders.
It’s not turning out like they expect. The fact is voter unease (among these voters) isn’t directed at Joe Biden or Democrats at large (this doesn’t mean that Democrats as a whole are viewed better here than other states where we canvass). This undercurrent is unique to Central Florida, but it is pervasive. And i don’t think it will be fully identified until Election Day. Most polls of Florida are =/> 1000 respondents, and aren’t weighted towards the I-4 corridor.
One last thing: we don’t know what the Florida map will look like for 2024. Florida is like several states where the maps could, perhaps probably will, be changed by the courts next year. This kind of Deep Organizing, virtually year-round canvassing, will alter the electoral composition of these districts that could easily upend all the political machinations that a Ron DeSantis can contrive. The Democratic presidential campaigns with which I have worked never developed the kind of deep data they have built in an Iowa or New Hampshire simply because Florida is just too big. Florida is a state where you do need to Go Big or Go Home. That’s not a suggested road map for the kind of work we will be doing next year, it is the required homework needed for Florida to be a Swing State again. And I do think there is a surprise coming.
432 volunteers came out on Saturday to knock on doors for Hope Springs from Field PAC. We continue to canvass in Hispanic neighborhoods in Osceola and the Orlando suburbs of Polk, Seminole and Volusia Counties.
We canvass with an Issues Questionnaire that allows voters to tell us what is on their minds. We use it as a conversational check to guide volunteers through their dialog at the door. It makes it easy on our volunteers as provides us with vital data that will be entered in VAN (the Democratic database) after the primary. The first thing we ask is whether the people we talk to are registered to vote at their current address.
We also ask voters whether they have a primary issue concern. What we are looking for is to determine whether they are “single issue” voters. We use open-ended questions because we are really looking for quick, immediate responses. People know what issues they will be voting on, and if they can’t think of any, that doesn’t defeat the purpose. The Economy was the number one concern we heard in Central Florida. Voters are really concerned about the economic uncertainty on the Tourist Economy. Lots and lots of comments about how Florida just has not returned to (pre-Covid) normal. And some of the steps Florida’s governor has taken in the last few months have increased concern among the voters with whom we have talked. Jobs continues to be the second most frequent response. This week, Reproductive Rights was third.
58% of the voters we talked to expressed approval of President Biden in Florida on Saturday. 7% expressed disapproval in the job the president was doing.
DeSantis’ approval numbers are still stuck in single digits in Central Florida, 3% on Saturday; disapproval of DeSantis was 55%. Senator Rubio’s approval numbers fell to 14% this week. 34% disapproved of Rubio’s job performance.
Hope Springs from Field PAC has been knocking on doors in a grassroots-led effort to prepare the Electoral Battleground in what has been called the First Round of a traditional Five Round Canvass. We are taking those efforts to the doors of the communities most effected (the intended targets or victims) of these new voter suppression laws.
Obviously, we rely on grassroots support, so if you support field/grassroots organizing, voter registration (and follow-up) and our efforts to protect our voters, we would certainly appreciate your support:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/2022senateswing
Hope Springs from Field PAC understands that repeated face to face interactions are critical. And we are among those who believe that Democrats didn’t do as well in the 2020 Congressional races as expected because we didn’t knock on doors — and we didn’t register new voters (while Republicans dud). We are returning to the old school basics: repeated contacts, repeated efforts to remind them of protocols, meeting them were they are. Mentoring those who need it (like first time and newly registered voters). Reminding, reminding, reminding, and then chasing down those voters whose ballots need to be cured.
We registered 14 New Voters last Saturday and updated (or corrected) the addresses of another 108 voters. All of these registrations were accomplished using the Florida state SOS website.
We also ask people who open their doors about whether they need public services delivered to their neighborhood. 158 voters filled out Constituent Service Request forms last Saturday. In general, we send these to Democratic elected officials responsible for the requested functions, but if the appropriate office is held by a Republican, we still send it along. For Democrats, though, we encourage them to reach out immediately to the voter who filled out the Constituent Service Request forms and let them know they are working on the issue. This credit-taking is enormously valuable to the Democratic office-holder.
We specifically ask voters if they have any concerns about the upcoming elections. Last year, we walked with lit about the changes in voting laws in Florida, but we also asked voters about their fears and experience in prior elections. Voters who say they have experience voter intimidation or other problems with voting are asked to fill out Incident Reports. We found 9 voters who wanted to fill out Incident Reports in Florida on Saturday. These are voters who witnessed some form of voter intimidation or malfeasance at the polls. We collate these Incident Reports, to be shared with local, state and federal officials in charge of voting, as well as use them to plan out our Election Protection strategy in the fall. They could also be used in court cases.
Several professional fundraisers have told me my reports are too cheery, that if I want to raise money I need to be more scary. Maybe that is true, but Hope Springs from Field’s origins are more grassroots. If this work needs to be supported, then it will be funded. If this work needs to continue into 2024, then it will be funded. So if you are able to support our efforts to protect Democratic voters, expand the electorate, and believe in grassroots efforts to increase voter participation and election protection, please help:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/2022senateswing
Thank you for your support. This work depends on you!