Phillips P. O’Brien/Atlantic:
Ukraine Pulled Off a Masterstroke
Ukrainian leaders announced one counteroffensive against Russia—but had another in the works.
Only a week ago, the most important engagement for Ukraine appeared to be the battle for Kherson. For months, President Volodymyr Zelensky, his senior aides, and other Ukrainian sources had publicly proclaimed the goal of liberating the politically and strategically important southern city and the rest of the Russian-controlled territory on the west bank of the Dnipro River. Not only did the Ukrainians discuss the upcoming campaign, but they took all the necessary preparatory steps. They used their most effective long-range weaponry, including the American-supplied High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, to destroy bridges, ammunition depots, and other targets up and down the Russian lines near Kherson. These logistical attacks suggested that the Ukrainians would focus on this area for the rest of the summer.
In response, Russian President Vladimir Putin—who seemed to agree that the city was the highest priority—did exactly what the Ukrainians hoped: He rushed forces to the area. Evidence exists that some well-armed Russian units were redeployed there from the Russian-occupied Donbas in the east.
David Rothkopf/Daily Beast:
What Happens to Russia After It Loses?
In the aftermath of Putin’s catastrophic war on Ukraine, Russia will never be the same.
Experts with whom I spoke all agreed that the war will have long-lasting implications for Russia and, as a consequence, for geopolitics. At the very least it puts to rest for the foreseeable future Putin’s notion that he will oversee the rebirth of Russian greatness, of a new Russian empire. At worst, it means that Russia’s decades-long slide that led to its Cold War collapse (and its struggles ever since) will be accelerated, and the country will be consigned by its floundering dictator to a period of greatly diminished global influence.
Sarah Posner/The Nation:
The Southern Baptist Convention’s Deal With the Devil
The roots of the Supreme Court’s reversal of Roe go back 50 years, when zealots preaching a gospel of misogyny and homophobia—led by an accused sexual predator—took over America’s largest Protestant denomination.
Albert Mohler Jr., the president of the denomination’s flagship seminary and one of its leading theologians]’s jubilation over the death blow to liberal jurisprudence echoes the recent history of his denomination, which underwent its own right-wing radicalization in the 1980s and ’90s. Known to its proponents as the “conservative resurgence” (and to its critics as the “fundamentalist takeover”), the radicalization of the Southern Baptist Convention (SBC) fueled the rise of the modern religious right and its formal marriage to the Republican Party. That transformation has reverberated throughout our politics, as Southern Baptists have forged unprecedented alliances with Catholics and other conservative Christians in a quest to drive progressive advances back to the margins, much as they had driven liberals out of their own denomination. In the years since the takeover, the homophobic, transphobic, and patriarchal views cemented in official Southern Baptist statements have become the gospel of the denomination and its 14 million members, a bellwether for tens of millions of other evangelicals, and the lodestar of the Republican Party, whose leaders have sought the moral imprimatur of popular Southern Baptist leaders. The reach of this regressive theology into our national politics is now at a historic apex, with Dobbs energizing the right’s pursuit of ever more punitive crackdowns on abortion and a revitalized offensive against LGBTQ rights.
Trump campaign operative who delivered Jan. 6 false elector lists is identified
Mike Roman passed the names to a House GOP aide in a bid to get them to then-Vice President Mike Pence, people familiar with the episode told POLITICO.
Roman’s role in the effort to deliver those slates of electors directly to Pence has not previously been reported. The onetime Trump White House researcher and former aide to the conservative Koch network, who was subpoenaed in February by the Jan. 6 select committee, did not respond to multiple requests for comment for this story.
Included because Mike Roman was one of the recent operatives subpoenaed by Department of Justice. He’s important, but relatively unknown.
NBC:
Republicans tried to sidestep the issue of abortion. Now they're seeking a reset.
For some, that has meant walking back support for a total ban, embracing more limited restrictions on abortion and trying to reverse the tide by painting Democrats as the radicals.
By 51% to 32%, battleground state voters say Republicans are more extreme on abortion than Democrats, according to polling exclusively provided to NBC News by WPA Intelligence, a GOP political consulting firm. The poll showed 41% of likely voters surveyed said the Dobbs decision, which did away with constitutional protections for abortion, made them more likely to vote for a Democrat; 24% said it made them more likely to back Republicans.
Asked which group they identified with in the abortion debate, 54% said “Pro Choice,” compared to 39% who identified as “Pro Life.”
…
In a slide deck prepared in late summer for the National Republican Senatorial Committee and presented to Republican candidates, OnMessage advised a three-part messaging strategy for GOP candidates to rebut their opponents: “forcefully dismiss Democrat lies,” “your opponent is the extremist” and “you are the compassionate reasonable person.”
“DO NOT ALLOW THIS TO HAPPEN,” the slide deck, obtained by NBC News, reads in an all-caps red typeface on a page about Democrats’ seeking to paint Republicans as extreme. “MUST FIGHT THIS TO A DRAW.”
Pennsylvania Capital-Star:
New Pa. poll points to trouble for Republicans on abortion
A telltale shift in voter preference in bellwether northwestern Pennsylvania highlights the risk of GOP overreach
Back in August of 2020, Donald Trump led Joe Biden in northwestern Pennsylvania by a margin of 58-36 percent. He also led Biden in Central Pennsylvania 55-38 percent. Those two areas are some of the most conservative areas of the state, generally giving Republican huge leads in those counties.
However, a look at those areas in results released last week showed Fetterman with a six-point lead over Oz, 35-29 in northwestern Pennsylvania, and two tied in Central Pennsylvania with each candidate garnering 32 percent of the vote.
To be fair, the poll does show there’s a huge amount of undecided voters, ranging from 36 percent of voters in northwestern Pa. to 25 percent in Central Pennsylvania.
It’s certainly possible that both Oz and Mastriano could still come out ahead on Election Day. However, they may well need to run the table to do so.
So, what’s behind the surprising numbers? Well, it could be a blip on the radar screen. But after being burned by some poll numbers in the 2016 presidential election which had Hillary Clinton ahead of Donald Trump, the F&M poll’s administrators vowed to make the necessary changes to cure the problem of false polling.
Its polls have held up in every election since then.
You have to wonder if the abortion issue could be galvanizing women to vote in the fall election even in conservative areas such as Central and Northwestern Pennsylvania.
Shan Wu/The Daily Beast:
Trump’s Lawyers Reveal That Garland’s DOJ Has Backed Them Into a Legal Corner
The latest filing makes clear their desperation and extremism as a result.
The DOJ’s decision to narrow its legal argument to just seeking access to the classified materials is a smart move because it plays to the strongest part of its argument—namely that it’s not possible to investigate a case involving classified documents without access to the documents—leaving Trump’s lawyers little choice but to attack the DOJ’s very decision to investigate at all.
For example, their use of the phrase “preordained conclusion” clumsily tries to mimic the cliched “rush to judgement” language famously used by legendary criminal defense lawyer Johnnie Cochran in his successful closing argument in O.J. Simpson’s murder trial. But the conclusion Cochran was challenging was the conclusion reached by a criminal investigation—namely that O.J. Simpson had committed murder. In contrast, Trump’s lawyers are trying to control the process of the criminal investigation itself.
And here in Connecticut, gubernatorial politics from The Hill:
Lamont holds double-digit lead in Connecticut governor’s race: poll
Gov. Ned Lamont (D) is leading Republican challenger Bob Stefanowski by double digits in the Connecticut gubernatorial race, according to an Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey released Tuesday.
The poll found that Lamont received 49 percent support among likely voters in the state when respondents were asked who they would vote for if the governor’s race was held today, compared to Stefanowski who received 38 percent support.
Knowing he’s trailing (from CT Mirror)…
Bob Stefanowski enters culture wars with ‘parental bill of rights’
Calls on state high school athletics board to ban transgender athletes from girls sports
And from August, CT Mirror:
Bob Stefanowski approaches Labor Day with a new team
CT GOP gubernatorial candidate’s campaign manager, senior advisor and TV consultant gone over 3-week span
As goes CT, so goes … well, Connecticut.