Specialized brigades, some recently trained by NATO, are expected to lead the counteroffensive as the so-called tip of the spear. Ecocide: the left bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast suffered more than the right one after the Russian invaders blew up the Kakhovka dam overnight on June 6, “the single most damaging event of the war so far.
The disaster came one day after American and Russian officials said a planned Ukrainian counteroffensive might have begun east of the Dnipro in the Donetsk region. Though the dam is far from that fighting, its destruction could divert both sides’ resources from the counteroffensive.
The dam creates a reservoir that supplies water for drinking and agriculture. It also provides water to cool reactors and spent fuel at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, though the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, said there was “no immediate nuclear safety risk.” The group said, however, that it was closely monitoring the situation.
Security of the dam, the second largest on the Dnipro, had been a continuing concern during the war, with both sides accusing the other of plotting to destroy it.
Here are other developments:
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Damage to the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (KHPP) dam in the early hours of June 6 caused massive flooding of the Dnipro River delta, river wetlands, estuaries, and shoreline settlements in Kherson Oblast.
Russian and Ukrainian sources began reporting loud noises resembling explosions emanating from the KHPP (across the Dnipro River in the Nova Kakhovka area about 55km northeast of Kherson City) between 0200 and 0230 local time on June 6, followed by reports of rushing water and an overall increase in the water level of the Dnipro.[1] Ukraine’s Kherson Oblast Administration announced the evacuation of several raions (districts) of the west (right) bank of Kherson Oblast as of 0730 local time and reported that the Tyahinka, Odradokamianka, Beryslav, Ivanivka, Mykilske, Tokarivka, Ponyativka, Bilozerka, and Ostriv areas had been partially or completely flooded.[2] Russian Kherson Oblast occupation officials announced the evacuation of the Nova Kakhovka, Hola Prystan, and Oleshky raions.[3] Ukrainian officials noted that over 80 settlements are within the flood zone in Kherson Oblast.[4] General Director of Ukraine’s hydroelectric power plant regulator Ukrhydroenergo Ihor Syrota said that water is draining from the Kakhovka Reservoir at a rate of 15-20cm an hour, which Syrota stated means that the reservoir will be entirely dry in the next four days.[5] A researcher at the Ukrainian Department of Water Bioresources at the Kherson Oblast Agrarian and Economic University, Yevhen Korzhov, noted that the rate of water discharge from the dam may lead to flooding as far downstream as Kizomys, about 120km southwest from the KHPP.[6] A Russian milblogger claimed that the water level in Nova Kakhovka, immediately adjacent to the KHPP, reached as high as 11m.[7] Various Russian sources additionally highlighted footage showing that several east (left) bank settlements, including Oleshky, Korsunka, and Dnipryany, are entirely or nearly entirely underwater.[8]
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- Damage to the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (KHPP) dam in the early hours of June 6 caused massive flooding of the Dnipro River delta, river wetlands, estuaries, and shoreline settlements in Kherson Oblast.
- The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and Ukrainian officials stated that the drop in the water level at the Kakhovka Reservoir should not affect the safety of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP).
- Ukrainian officials stated that Russian forces intentionally destroyed the KHPP dam and suggested that the Russian military did not prepare for subsequent flooding.
- Russian officials accused Ukrainian forces of destroying the KHPP dam and used the allegations to bolster ongoing efforts to portray Ukrainian assaults elsewhere in Ukraine as immediate failures.
- ISW has not yet observed clear evidence of what transpired at the KHPP on June 6 and is therefore unable to offer an independent assessment of responsibility at the time of this publication.
- Russian forces conducted another large-scale missile strike across Ukraine on the night of June 5-6.
- Russian sources claimed that the pro-Ukrainian all-Russian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK) and the Freedom of Russian Legion (LSR) are gone from a border settlement in Belgorod Oblast as of June 6.
- Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin continued to directly threaten the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and the Russian military command if they do not fulfill his demands for a larger independent army and political influence in Russia.
- Ukrainian officials offered assurances that the damage to the dam and subsequent flooding will not impede Ukrainian counteroffensive preparations.
- Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line.
- Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued ground attacks north and southwest of Bakhmut, and Russian forces continued limited offensive operations along the Avdiivka-Donetsk line.
- Ukrainian forces continued ground attacks in southwestern Donetsk and in eastern Zaporizhia oblasts.
- Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin claimed that the Russian 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade is part of the irregular 6th Division.
- Russian officials and occupation authorities continue efforts to use infrastructure projects to integrate occupied territories into Russia.
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KYIV, Ukraine — Ukraine’s military made gains against Russian forces in multiple locations along the eastern front, the country’s deputy defense minister said Monday, as an increasing cadence in combat operations raised speculation that the much-anticipated counteroffensive was finally imminent.
Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar wrote on Telegram that troops conducted multiple “offensive actions” in the eastern Donetsk region despite “stiff resistance and the enemy’s attempts to hold the occupied lines and positions.”
But Ukrainian officials denied claims by Moscow that they had launched the counteroffensive — and that Russian troops had thwarted it.
A spokesman for the Russian Defense Ministry said Ukrainian forces had started the counteroffensive by trying to push through five areas of the Russian line in Donetsk but had been repelled. The statement by Lt. Gen. Igor Konashenkov, in a video posted by the Russian state-owned news agency RIA Novosti, could not be verified.
Serhiy Cherevatyi, a spokesman for the Ukrainian army’s eastern command, called the Russian claim “delusional.” Maliar denied that the operation to push Russian forces back and eventually out of Ukraine was underway. Any offensive efforts, she said, were confined to an ongoing push around Bakhmut, the regional capital of Donetsk.
Ukrainian forces advanced between 200 and 1,600 meters in the area near the town of Orikhovo-Vasylivka and in Paraskoviivka, north of Bakhmut, Maliar said. Soldiers pushed between 100 and 700 meters near Ivanivske, also close to Bakhmut, she said.
Ukrainian officials have cautioned repeatedly in recent days that no single action would mark the start of the counterattack, nor would it be announced. But military analysts on Monday said the front-line activity could indicate its early stages.
An officer in a Ukrainian assault brigade in the southeast region told The Washington Post the counteroffensive has begun and his unit is ready to join. He spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to provide details. A unit near his pushed ahead yesterday, he said, and destroyed eight Russian tanks. For now, he said, Ukraine is focused on reconnaissance operations, “but the pace will increase every day.”
Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)
Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks along the Svatove-Kreminna line on June 6. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful ground attacks near Kreminna, Bilohorivka (10km south of Kreminna), and Berestove (30km south of Kreminna).[51] A Russian milblogger claimed that unspecified elements of the 6th Combined Arms Army (Western Military District) repelled Ukrainian attacks in the Kupyansk direction.[52]
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Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian Objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Click here to read ISW’s retrospective analysis on the Battle for Bakhmut.
Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued ground attacks north and southwest of Bakhmut. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that elements of the Southern Grouping of Forces (Southern Military District) repelled four Ukrainian assaults near Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut) and Berkhivka (6km north of Bakhmut).[53] A prominent Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces entered Berkhivka and that fighting was ongoing in the settlement as of the afternoon of June 6.[54] Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin previously claimed on June 5 that Ukrainian forces had captured an unspecified part of Berkhivka.[55] Other Russian sources claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian assaults near Berkhivka and that Ukrainian assaults occurred at least two kilometers away from the settlement.[56]
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Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)
Ukrainian forces continued ground attacks in southwestern Donetsk and in eastern Zaporizhia oblasts on June 6. A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger reported that Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in the area of Novodarivka (15km southwest of Velyka Novosilka), Rivnopil (11km southwest of Velyka Novosilka), and Neskuchne (2km south of Velyka Novosilka).[68] Russian “Vostok“ volunteer battalion commander Alexander Khodakovsky claimed that Russian forces recaptured Novodonetske (12km southeast of Velyka Novosilka) on June 6 after Ukrainian forces nearly liberated the entire settlement on June 5.[69] …. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked in the direction of Novosilka (10km west of Velyka Novosilka).[73] Ukrainian Defense Forces Tavriisk Direction Spokesperson Captain Valeriy Shershen stated that Russian forces are continuing defensive operations in the Novopavlivka and Orikhiv operational directions in Zaporizhia and western Donetsk oblasts.[74]
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The Russian-installed mayor of Nova Kakhova denies that the dam has been blown up and claims that everything is “calm” in the city. A strong indicator that the Russians did it. Emergency services on the Russian occupied side of Kherson have declared a state of emergency, saying that more than 600 houses have been flooded. The Russian-appointed mayor of Nova Kakhova, who initially dismissed the collapse, is now calling it a Ukrainian terrorist attack.
For years, it served as Crimea’s main water resource, but shortly after the annexation, Ukraine blocked the flow of water. Russia restored it after invading last year and occupying the territory around the canal.
The Kremlin’s spokesman, Dmitri S. Peskov, said in a briefing on Tuesday that water levels in the reservoir were falling as a result of the dam’s destruction, reducing supply to the canal. Only a small portion of the canal’s water supply is used for drinking water. Most of it is used for agricultural purposes in Crimea.
Sergei Aksyonov, the Kremlin-installed leader of Crimea, said on Tuesday that there was a risk of the water in the canal becoming shallow.
Writing on the Telegram messaging app, Mr. Aksyonov said that 40 million cubic meters of water remained in the canal and that work was being done to minimize losses. He said reservoirs in Crimea were 80 percent full, adding that there was sufficient drinking water for the peninsula’s residents.
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Ukrainian officials offered assurances that the damage to the dam and subsequent flooding will not impede Ukrainian counteroffensive preparations. Zelensky emphasized that the “detonation of the dam did not affect Ukraine’s ability to de-occupy its own territories.”[38] Ukrainian Joint Forces Commander Lieutenant General Serhiy Nayev noted that the Ukrainian command has already taken into account Russia’s propensity for ”insidious actions” and that as a result any potential planned counteroffensive actions will not be impacted in areas where there is flooding.[39] It is additionally noteworthy that the areas of the theater that are impacted by the flooding (those within a 120km flood radius between Nova Kakhovka and Kizomys) are geographically very far removed from areas of the frontline where ISW has observed recent combat activity in the past few days.[40] The flooding of the lower Dnipro will not likely have any impact on the areas that have seen active fighting recently.
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- Russia, as an occupying power, in violation of international law and despite multiple Ukrainian pleas, completely failed to ensure the security and proper maintenance of this key facility of very special importance. - Russia, despite Ukrainian and international efforts, absolutely failed to impose a demilitarized zone surrounding this key facility, and, similarly to facilities like the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant, it absolutely failed to abstain from deploying military forces in the facility's vicinity. - And, in the first place, by default, as an aggressor waging a destructive war of conquest and openly defying the law of war, it is directly and solely responsible for the whole of the ongoing massive loss of life and the destruction taking place in Ukraine. So it's more than obvious that regardless of the destruction's very immediate cause (be it Russian bombs planted or deadly Russian negligence), all 100% of the blame is on nothing but Russia.
I guess no one is taking seriously a dumb conspiracy theory saying that the dam could be destroyed by Ukraine -- for the sake of... causing a major technological disaster, with over 80 cities and towns flooded and the whole region affected, in a territory it pursues to liberate from the foreign aggressor to no substantial military effect? With or without the major flooding, Ukraine is not even close to seriously expecting a successful and decisive landing operation in the Dnipro east bank, due to very obvious challenges and complexities. So, given the fact that the sudden disaster also seriously affected Russia's military presence in the region -- I guess the most probable answer is that Russians fucked things up. Yes, AGAIN. As they often do. They absolutely failed to ensure the dam's proper operation, especially given its poor condition, and, knowingly committed gross violations, very possibly due to the fear of a possible limited Ukrainian assault from across the Dnipro. Fucking around and finding out, Vol. 45633. Knowing what Russia and its system is, the insane stupidity, IMHO, feels like a very likely answer. The result is what we're seeing now live. An insane tragedy for Ukraine that we will have to deal with for decades to come. However, the dildo of consequence is coming soon, too. Again.
I never agree with crypto-fascist Bret Stephens yet Ukraine needs armaments and long-run security guarantees, but not necessarily like one that Israel has, unless Bret is endorsing a return to the pre-1994 situation where Ukraine has nuclear weapons and the pre-2014 border.
Winning comes in two flavors. The first, and riskier, is to provide Kyiv with the weapons it needs — mainly long-range guided missiles, more tanks, Predator drones and F-16s — not only to push Russia out of the territories it seized in this war, but to retake Crimea and the breakaway “republics” in the east. This is what Ukrainians want, and what they are morally and legally entitled to.
But retaking Crimea will be hard, and even success will come with costs, primarily in the form of populations that aren’t necessarily eager to be liberated by Kyiv. Hence the second flavor: To help Ukraine restore its pre-February 2022 borders, but no further — with compensation in the form of membership in the European Union and a bilateral U.S.-Ukraine security treaty modeled on America’s security cooperation with Israel.
Would this increase America’s exposure to Russian aggression? No, it would diminish it, for the same reason Putin didn’t dare attack the NATO-member Baltic States but twice attacked Ukraine: Dictators prey on the weak, not the strong. Would it satisfy Ukraine’s need for security? Yes, both in guaranteed access to Europe’s markets and America’s arms.
And would it humiliate Putin? In the best way possible, by showing him and other despots, within and beyond Russia, that aggression against democracies never pays.
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