The above set of numbers originated from a written response from ICE to a request from House Rep Tony Gonzalez (R, TX) and, not surprisingly, circulating on social media like wildfire since then. The knee-jerk reaction of the Trump campaign has been that these are large numbers of criminals released into our neighborhoods by Biden administration but the truth is that these are cumulative numbers from decades, including those released under Trump administration! This topic is well-debated elsewhere, see some links in the comments section below and please add annotated links to any others that you have seen.
In this note, I focus on when did most of the releases of those with criminal convictions occur? Monthly release data by criminality are downloadable from www.ice.gov/… though unfortunately they only go back to FY20 monthly and to FY19 annually.
Now, on reflection it is clear that the absolute number of criminally convicted that are released by ICE depends on the overall number entering the ICE docket which varies tremendously year to year and month to month. So to assess the role of ICE we should look at the data as a proportion — the percentage that have a criminal conviction among the total number released.
The chart below shows this proportion before FY21, during FY21 (bridge year from Trump to Biden), and FY2-23. I excluded FY24 as it has a different reporting format and still considered provisional
Comparing Trump vs Biden years on proportion of criminally convicted in annual ICE releases
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Clearly, the proportion is higher during Trump administration by a significant margin. Over 10% during Trump years, dropping to just over 3% in the middle years of Biden administration.
Next we look at monthly data around the transfer of power. I was not expecting to see such a clear signal as we see in the chart below.
Proportion of criminally convicted in monthly ICE releases around the time of Presidential transition
Clearly, something changed in the new administration that caused the proportion to drop dramatically and immediately, as well as then stay low in the following years.
I realize that there are many moving parts that feed into this proportion so I invite comment from readers who are familiar with the historical policy context and how ICE processes have evolved during this period of analysis. Prima facie, it appears from the above analysis that the Biden administration has been remarkably MORE effective than the Trump administration at handling criminality among the illegal immigrant population, directly opposing a favorite Trump campaign talking point.
