Every vote matters—more than ever.
The latest poll from Siena College for The New York Times suggests Republicans are on track to retake the Senate, with their candidates leading in Montana—which is held by Democratic Sen. Jon Tester—as well as in Florida and Texas, Democrats’ two best pickup opportunities.
With the retirement of Sen. Joe Manchin, Republicans are all but sure to nab his seat in dark-red West Virginia. If this poll’s results bear out, Democrats’ 51-49 Senate majority would slip to a 49-51 minority, assuming they win in every other contested Senate seat they currently hold.
This should energize every Democrat to get out to vote and drive turnout to record levels. And there’s some evidence that may already be happening.
In Montana, Tester faces Republican Tim Sheehy, a political newcomer. The Donald Trump-esque play of presenting nonexpertise as being a “political outsider” appears to have resonated in the Big Sky State. The Times poll shows Tester down 8 percentage points, with 44% to Sheehy’s 52% among likely voters. However, 538’s polling average shows a closer race, with Sheehy ahead by 5.4 points.
Losing this seat and Manchin’s would effectively halt the agenda of a President Kamala Harris if she were elected this year. It would slow down cabinet appointments or force her to use acting secretaries. It would enable politicized impeachment trials if Republicans also held their House majority. Perhaps most consequently of all, a Republican Senate majority would be able to swat down any of Harris’ potential Supreme Court nominees.
Given Tester’s long odds of holding his seat, Democrats turn to their two best Senate pickup opportunities: Texas and Florida.
Vying for his third term, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz lead’s Democrat Colin Allred by 4 points, 48% to 44% percent, in what the Times calls Democrats’ “best opportunity” for flipping a seat. The poll’s result is in line with 538’s polling average for the race, which shows Cruz ahead by 3.6 points.
In Florida, Republican Sen. Rick Scott holds a large 9-point lead over Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, 49% to 40%. That being said, 538’s polling average shows a tighter race, with Scott half that lead, at 4.5 points.
As Daily Kos reported in September, polls are not election results, and because of that, “they can be changed by donating, mobilizing, and voting for Democratic candidates.”
Turnout is already breaking records. In New Mexico, early voting indicates a historic level of turnout. The same goes for Ohio, whose most populous county saw a higher level of first-day early voting this year than in 2016. Ohio is also where Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is fighting to keep his seat. 538’s polling average shows him leading by 2.3 points.
But Democrats need to keep the momentum. Mobilizing their voters will be crucial in not only defending vulnerable seats but also expanding their majority where possible. Grassroots efforts, shoe-leather canvassing, and targeted outreach can make a difference in galvanizing support and turnout.
You can help turn out the vote for the election by simply chatting to your neighbors. This is a cool one! Click here to sign up for Daily Kos/Indivisible’s Neighbor2Neighbor get-out-the-vote program.
