Russian forces conducted a series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on the evening of October 11 and the night of October 11 to 12.
The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched an unknown type of missile from Belgorod Oblast and 28 strike drones from Kursk Oblast and Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai overnight.[85] Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile forces, electronic warfare (EW) units, and mobile fire groups reportedly shot down 24 drones over Sumy, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, and Kherson oblasts, and two drones reportedly were "lost in location" due to Ukrainian EW countermeasures. Mykolaiv Oblast Military Administration Head Vitaliy Kim reported that two Russian drones fell in Mykolaiv Oblast.[86] Kim noted that Russian forces have changed their tactics from striking critical infrastructure to targeting what the Russian military assesses to be military targets – many of which Kim identified as farming facilities or agricultural enterprises. The Sumy Oblast Prosecutor's Office stated that Russian forces conducted a missile strike against civilian infrastructure in Sumy City overnight.[87] The Sumy Oblast Military Administration reported that Russian forces conducted a missile strike against Sumy Oblast on the evening of October 11.[88]
Ukrainian anti-aircraft missile forces, electronic warfare (EW) units, and mobile fire groups reportedly shot down 24 drones over Sumy, Poltava, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, and Kherson oblasts, and two drones reportedly were "lost in location" due to Ukrainian EW countermeasures.
Our Su-34 was shot down. The crew was killed. The airplane was shot down while dropping glide bombs, about 50 km from the front line. Our Su-34 was shot down apparently by an F-16, which was over enemy-controlled territory. There will be more such losses soon. NATO has released F-16s for hunting. Now there will be less FABs flying. Consequently, the losses of our infantry will increase.
A Russian Telegram channel, which claims to be managed by Russian airborne (VDV) officers and staff of the Russian “Dnepr” Grouping of Forces, claimed that a Ukrainian F-16 fighter jet presumably shot down the Russian Su-34 fighter aircraft while the Su-34 was dropping FAB glide bombs with unified planning and correction modules (UMPC) at a distance of about 50 kilometers from the frontline.[11] The Telegram channel later responded to the claims that the Su-34 could have crashed due to technical malfunction or human error, noting that such hypothetical scenarios still highlight a problem with the wear and tear of Russian aircraft, unprofessionalism among pilots, and pilot exhaustion.[12]
www.criticalthreats.org/...
Key Takeaways:
- Russian forces are reportedly relying on illicitly obtained Starlink terminals to improve combat coordination and the effectiveness of their tactical reconnaissance strike complex (TRSC) in Ukraine as part of an overarching effort to reach technological parity with Ukrainian forces.
- A Russian milblogger claimed that a Ukrainian F-16 downed a Russian Su-34 fighter aircraft in an unspecified area of the theater on October 12, but ISW cannot verify the claim that a Ukrainian F-16 was involved in the reported loss of the Russian Su-34.
- Unknown actors opened fire on personnel of the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs' (MVD) Center for Combating Extremism in Nazran, Republic of Ingushetia on the night of October 11.
- Indian enterprises are reportedly increasing exports of dual-use technologies to Russia, in part thanks to large Russian reserves of rupees from oil sales to India.
- Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Donetsk City, and Robotyne.
- Russian forces are reportedly struggling to conduct effective counterbattery fires.
https://t.co/fnqyzLqmll
For the past two weeks, residents of the Kursk region have been sending us more and more messages saying they often hear broadcasts in a language they don’t understand on the radio. Recently, locals from Kurchatov, Kursk region, also shared video footage of one of these broadcasts, where messages in #Chechen can be heard periodically. Russians in the video are laughing, calling it "Shashlyk FM," but if they knew what was actually being said, they probably wouldn't find it funny. These radio broadcasts, which air across all cities of the #Kursk region, are a means of communication between “external forces” and Kadyrov’s men.
InformNapalm has full recordings of these broadcasts, and we even know the translation of some of them, but we are observing the situation and won’t reveal all our cards to the Russian security forces just yet.
Moreover, #Kadyrov himself recently used this method of covert communication, announcing a blood feud against his business rivals in Chechen.
This is a form of coding, so that the Federal Center in Moscow can’t respond immediately. It’s clear that the radio messages in the Kursk region are in Chechen, not Russian, so that local security forces and the FSB can’t understand the direct interaction happening behind their backs between "external forces" and Kadyrov’s men.
Russian military sources claimed that Russian forces have recaptured nearly two dozen settlements in Kursk Oblast as of October 11, while Ukrainian military officials reported that Ukrainian forces partially regained lost positions amidst continued intensified Russian counterattacks on October 12. Chechen Akhmat Spetsnaz Commander Apty Alaudinov claimed on October 11 that Russian forces have recaptured 19 settlements in Kursk Oblast since the start of Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk Oblast but did not name these settlements.[30] ISW assesses that Russian forces have likely advanced within at least 13 settlements in Kursk Oblast that Ukrainian forces had previously reportedly operated in as of October 11.[31] The Head of Ukraine‘s Center of Countering Disinformation of the National Security and Defense Council, Lieutenant Andriy Kovalenko, stated on October 12 that Russian forces continued to commit Russian columns to assaults in Kursk Oblast after Ukrainian forces partially regained unspecified positions.[32]
Russian sources claimed that Russian forces continued efforts to dislodge Ukrainian forces from Glushkovsky Raion (west of the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast) on October 11 and 12.
Russian sources also claimed that Russian forces continued advancing on the left flank of the main Ukrainian salient in Korenevsky Raion and on the right flank of the main Ukrainian salient in Sudzhansky Raion in Kursk Oblast on October 11 and 12. ...ISW observed footage posted on October 11 of a Russian servicemember posing near an Olgovka exit sign, but ISW cannot independently geolocate the sign’s location.[38] ... Russian sources, including the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), additionally claimed that Russian attacks continued near Darino (southwest of Lyubimovka), Plekhovo (south of Sudzha), and Sverdlikovo (northwest of Sudzha), and that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian counterattacks near Lyubimovka, Tolsty Lug, and Novoivanovka on October 11 and 12.[42] Elements of the Russian 22nd Spetsnaz Brigade (Russian General Staff Main Directorate [GRU]), which previously operated in western Zaporizhia Oblast as of September 2024, are reportedly operating in Kursk Oblast.[43]
