Early voting: 47% Dem, 44% Rep, 9% Ind is voting 61%-35% Harris-Trump

Several polls out lately have asked people if they’ve already voted, and if they have, how they have voted. Here are the polls and the Harris-Trump percentages those early voters have said they voted.

• ABC/Ipsos: Harris 62-33
• CNN:  Harris 61-36
• NYT/Siena: Harris 58-40
• HarrisX poll: Harris 61-32
• USAToday/Suffolk: Harris 63-34

That’s 5 polls all showing roughly the same thing. There was also a Marist poll of 3 swing states showing Harris up 10-12 points in the early voting of each state, but I’ll just use national polls. Swing states will be closer than the national average (which is why they’re swing states), but there are also blue states where Harris will be ahead even more.

That’s an average of 61.2% for Harris, 35% for Trump.

According to TargetSmart the modeled partisanship of those who have voted so far is:

• 46.7% Democrat
• 43.9% Republican
• 9.3% Other/Independent

While TargetSmart’s modeling of people’s partisanship is undoubtedly imperfect, it does include a lot of actual partisan registrations, and is probably a halfway decent estimate.

What this means is that a partisan split of approx. 47% Dem, 44% Rep, 9% Ind is voting approx. 61%-35% Harris-Trump.

IOW, Trump is not even getting all of the GOP vote (35% of the vote vs. 44% GOP voters)! And not only all the Dems but also all of the Others/Independents are breaking for Harris.

Of course it’s going to be a bit more complicated than that, but what that means is that a large % of the GOP early vote is voting for Harris.

Have a nice evening. :-)