TL;DR
Help us win: donate.
And—no matter where you are, you can help Wisconsin go blue by volunteering. Sign up for a phone bank or a door-knocking shift here.
Okay, let’s dig in.
POLLS
The polling averages say Wisconsin is tied.
FiveThirtyEight has Harris up by 0.8% in Wisconsin.
You can take your pick of polling aggregators.
- VoteHub: Harris +0.6
- New York Times: Harris +0.6
- 270toWin: Harris +0.7
- DecisionDesk HQ: Trump +0.5
- Real Clear Politics: Harris +0.2
The Marquette University Law School poll is the Wisconsin gold-standard poll. Their final pre-election poll came out yesterday. They say Harris 50, Trump 49.
People working in politics are voraciously consuming internal polls and modeling. They’re helpful for guiding strategy and targeting. But I’ll spill the non-big non-secret: they, too, say the race is tied here.
Want to make the race un-tied, in our direction? Seriously, we’re still spending late money on things that can move the needle—like highly targeted digital GOTV ads. Help out here.
EARLY VOTE
What do we see in Wisconsin?
One thing is clear: it’s massive. Days ago, we eclipsed the final early+mail numbers from 2004, 2008, 2012, 2016 (and, of course, every midterm)—and the numbers keep rising.
1,224,779 have already cast ballots.
519,453 mail-in ballots. Historically, and likely this year, lopsidedly Dem.
705,326 in-person early votes. Historically, 50-50 R/D.
What we don’t know for certain is who these voters are supporting. We’ve seen a huge jump in early voting in red areas like Waukesha County.
BUT… these early voters have been a bit more likely to be female than in the past.
Unlike other states, when you register to vote in Wisconsin, you don’t register with a political party.
So any data you see about Dem vs Rep strength in early voting is based on modeling—informed guesses.
Each municipality processes its own in-person and mail-in ballots. There are two methods.
Some, like Madison, send them out to individual precincts to process at the same time as their Election Day ballots.
Others, e.g. Milwaukee, do it differently—which affects Election Night.
The absentee ballots that are processed at Central Count locations are typically reported *after* the counts from precincts have come in. So in Milwaukee, for example, you’ll get “100% of precincts reporting”—but many ballots still to be counted.
The bigger the Democratic advantage among these early ballots, the bigger the change can be once the absentee ballots are counted. Which gives rise to the “red mirage”—where Trump seems to be doing better—and then the “blue shift.”
This gave rise to countless conspiracy theories in 2020, all debunked.
Republicans killed a bill in Wisconsin that would’ve allowed early processing of absentee ballots and removed this effect.
So, expect some bad-faith GOP conspiracy-mongering again this time.
ORGANIZING AND GOTV
In Wisconsin, Democrats organize year-round. We’ve done it since the spring of 2017. We’ve been building our Get Out The Vote operation for, oh, 90 months.
The GOP? Not so much.
Our model is to hire staff that work with county parties and neighbor-to-neighbor organizing teams in every part of the state. These teams are led by volunteers. We now have hundreds.
That kind of infrastructure means that, at the biggest moments, we can absorb vast numbers of volunteers and put them to work. That’s exactly what’s happening now. Thousands of people are knocking on doors and calling phones every single day.
We’ve knocked on almost a million doors in the last two weeks in Wisconsin. We’ve placed more than twice as many calls to voters here.
And our knocks per day, in these last five days, are rising. Rapidly.
We’re watching, closely, for signs of the GOP’s ground game. The signals are sparse. It certainly looks like there’s no serious statewide coordinated campaign on the Republican side.
Elon Musk has financed a patchwork paid canvass, only supporting Trump.
The Koch network (Americans For Prosperity) is knocking on doors just for Eric Hovde.
Here and there, candidates or county parties are hitting doors.
Rs in disarray.
Field organizing can’t turn a nailbiter into a landslide, or a landslide into a nailbiter. But in a nailbiter, it can give you the edge.
The polls say this is a nailbiter. This could be the key to our edge.
Want to help? Sign up to volunteer here.
ADS
I’d give Dems the edge here.
First thing to know: there are a LOT of ads in Wisconsin. Every TV ad break. Every spot a digital ad could go. Radio. Sides of buses. Billboards.
Harris has gained ground on the economy. The economy’s improved, and Harris’s messaging on economic issues has closed the trust gap.
The GOP has responded by leaning into anti-immigrant and anti-trans messaging, often tied together.
On the Democratic side, ads generally talk about Harris’s economic proposals, her support for reproductive freedom, and Trump’s extremism—on democracy, abortion, and tax cuts for the rich.
The same themes show up in House races and even state legislative races. It’s a surround-sound strategy in the final stretch. From Dems, the message is clear: freedom, democracy, and an economy that works for working people.
No side has overwhelming dominance in the volume of ads in the final stretch. If the number of ads people see from each side is roughly equal, then the persuasiveness of the message is the key factor.
Remember the line from Kellyanne Conway—Trump's 2016 campaign manager: people vote on what affects them, not what offends them. In 2016, Trump was offensive, but he won.
But THIS year, Trump isn’t taking his own advice. So many Trump ads are about what offends conservatives.
Dems are running ads on things that directly affect undecided voters. Their financial future. Their personal freedom.
For that reason, I’d give Dems the edge in the air war in the final stretch.
VIBES ON THE GROUND
I’ve visited 32 of Wisconsin’s 72 counties in the last two weeks, from the bluest of blue counties, to the reddest of red and everywhere in between.
Everywhere I go, Dems are nervous about what they read… but excited by what they see in real life. The vibes are positive!
In rural, suburban, small-town, and urban Wisconsin, WisDems volunteers and staff tell me that they’re seeing many more previous Trump supporters switching to support Harris than formerly Democratic voters switching to support Trump. Especially among women.
Abortion isn’t in the headlines day after day. But when you talk to people who’ve switched away from Trump, it comes up all the time. We’ve seen it in the data, and we see it at the doors.
Meanwhile, all over the state, volunteers and voters have shared with me the same thing I’ve seen with my own eyes: the once-omnipresent sea of Trump yard, barn, and roadside signs has ebbed, and Harris-Walz signs have flooded in.
Signage is an imperfect signal, but to the extent that it tells us something, it points towards high Democratic enthusiasm and organization.
And maybe even some slippage in GOP enthusiasm and organization.
Signs don’t vote, but their owners sure do.
By the way, it’s not too late. If you want to get a yard sign for these last five days, find your local Democratic County Party and pick one up. And while you’re there, sign up for a volunteer shift and join the party!
Sometimes, in a campaign, you can feel that things are off. That people you thought you could count on are telling you they’re undecided.
This year, things feel very on. It feels like new supporters are coming out of the woodwork.
On the ground, the vibes are on our side.
So, to recap:
- Polls: tied
- Early vote: huge
- Ground game: Dem dominance
- Ads: Dem edge
- Vibes: Dem edge
What will happen? Nobody knows. But I’d rather be us than them.
If we win, it will be because we are never, ever taking anything or anyone for granted. And because we’re not writing any area or any community off.
Getting to this moment has been the work of thousands of people—on the campaign, with the party, and in the array of allied groups, from unions to grassroots organizations on the ground. I’m deeply grateful to all who’ve poured themselves into the fight.
Now, it’s time to finish strong.
With everything we’ve got.
Help us sprint through the tape.
Volunteer here.
And share this thread.
(Oh, and HAPPY HALLOWEEN!)