Kyiv could rapidly develop a rudimentary nuclear weapon similar to that dropped on Nagasaki in 1945 to stop Russia if the US cuts military aid
Ukrainian officials have said for months that they would not cede territory occupied by Russia in any peace settlement. Now, as Ukraine contemplates an accelerated timetable for negotiations pushed by President-elect Donald J. Trump, it is putting at least as much importance on obtaining security guarantees as on where an eventual cease-fire line might fall.
With Ukrainian forces steadily losing ground in the east, two senior officials said that defending Ukraine’s interests in potential talks would hinge not on territorial boundaries, which are likely to be determined by the fighting, but on what assurances are in place to make a cease-fire hold.
“Talks should be based on guarantees,” said Roman Kostenko, the chairman of the Ukrainian Parliament’s Defense and Intelligence Committee. “For Ukraine, nothing is more important.”
A senior Ukrainian official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive negotiations, was more direct. “The territorial question is extremely important, but it’s still the second question,” the official said, “The first question is security guarantees.”
Ukraine sets its borders based on its 1991 declaration of independence. Russia has since gained control of about 20 percent of Ukrainian land, but Kyiv would not formally renounce its claim over any territory under Russian occupation, Mr. Kostenko said.
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Russian forces conducted a large series of drone and missile strikes against Ukraine on the night of November 12 to 13.
The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched two S-300 missiles from Kursk Oblast at Sumy Oblast; two Kh-101 cruise missiles from the airspace over the Caspian Sea; two Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles from Voronezh Oblast; and 90 Shahed drones and unspecified strike drones from Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai and Oryol and Kursk oblasts.[72] The Ukrainian Air Force stated that Ukrainian forces downed two Kh-101 cruise missiles, two Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles and 37 drones over Kyiv, Poltava, Zhytomyr, Sumy, Cherkasy, Zaporizhia, Chernihiv and Kirovohrad oblasts. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that 47 drones were "lost" in Ukrainian air space, likely due to Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) interference, and that two drones flew into Russian and Belarusian airspace. Independent Belarusian monitoring group Hajun Project stated on November 13 that the night of November 12 to 13 was the fourth consecutive night that Russian drones flew into Belarusian airspace.[73] Kyiv City Head Serhii Popko stated that the November 12-13 strikes were the first combined missile and drone strikes against Kyiv City since September 1 [74] Ukrainian officials stated that a missile strike and debris from downed targets damaged a building and started a fire at a warehouse in Brovarskyi Raion, Kyiv Oblast.[75] Kharkiv City Emergency Services Head Bohdan Hladikh stated that Russian forces struck Saltivskyi Raion, Kharkiv City, with Molniya-1 drones, which have quiet electric motors and are hard to detect using conventional anti-drone means[76] The Sumy Oblast Administration stated Russian forces struck critical infrastructure facilities in Shostka Hromada with Shahed drones, causing heating outages in Shostka City[77] Private Ukrainian energy enterprise DTEK stated on November 13 that Russian strikes and cold weather have forced Ukraine to limit business' electricity consumption in Kyiv City[78]
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Ukrainian forces downed two Kh-101 cruise missiles, two Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles and 37 drones over Kyiv, Poltava, Zhytomyr, Sumy, Cherkasy, Zaporizhia, Chernihiv and Kirovohrad oblasts.
Ukrainian security services reportedly assassinated a Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF) official in occupied Crimea on November 13. Ukrainian outlet Suspilne reported on November 13 that sources in Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) stated that the SBU conducted a successful special operation in occupied Sevastopol, Crimea and planted an explosive on the car of the BSF's 41st Missile Boat Brigade Chief of Staff Captain First Rank Valery Trankovsky.[7] Trankovsky died from his injuries after the explosion.[8] SBU sources noted that Trankovsky ordered Russian cruise missile strikes from the Black Sea at civilian objects in Ukraine in 2022.[9] Sevastopol occupation governor Mikhail Razvozhaev reported that a car exploded in Sevastopol on the morning of November 13, killing a Russian servicemember, but did not identify the deceased.[10] Razvozhaev claimed that Russian authorities did not rule out sabotage — suggesting that the Russian occupation administration will likely further crackdown against those it deems to be pro-Ukrainian in retaliation for the attack. Geolocated footage shows the aftermath of the car explosion in occupied Sevastopol.[11] Likely Ukrainian partisans have conducted three assassinations of Russian occupation and military officials since late September 2024.[12]
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Three days into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as Putin’s soldiers were razing cities, raping and executing Ukrainians, Tulsi Gabbard — who was just tapped by Trump to be director of national intelligence — called on Zelensky to “embrace the spirit of aloha.”
Shortly after Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Gabbard tweeted that the war could have been avoided if the Biden administration and NATO had “simply acknowledged Russia’s legitimate security concerns” regarding Ukraine joining NATO. Earlier this month, she told Tucker Carlson that the Biden administration’s refusal to guarantee that Ukraine would remain outside NATO “just points to one conclusion … which is, they actually want ... Russia to invade Ukraine.”
Three days after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Gabbard tweeted a message to the presidents of Russia, the United States and Ukraine: “It’s time to put geopolitics aside and embrace the spirit of aloha, respect and love, for the Ukrainian people by coming to an agreement that Ukraine will be a neutral country — i.e. no military alliance with NATO or Russia.”
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One of fascism's main tactics is to physically and mentally exhaust you. To flood the zone with outrageous bullshit, to make you bite on a dozen pump-fakes — so that when the real shot comes, you're too worn out to react.
- The Kremlin is attempting to dictate the terms of any potential "peace" negotiations with Ukraine in advance of US President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration. The manner in which the Kremlin is trying to set its terms for negotiations strongly signals that Russia's objectives remain unchanged and still amount to full Ukrainian capitulation. The Kremlin does not appear any more willing to make concessions to the incoming Trump administration than it was to the current administration.
- Lavrov's pre-emptive rejection of the potential suggestion to freeze the current frontline further indicates that Russia is not interested in softening its approach or demands in negotiations and maintains its objective of total Ukrainian capitulation, which Russian President Vladimir Putin explicitly outlined in June 2024.
- Ukrainian security services reportedly assassinated a Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF) official in occupied Crimea on November 13.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian oil executives reportedly rejected a proposal to merge Russia's three largest oil companies. Contradictory reporting on the proposed Russian oil merger highlights a possible factional struggle between close affiliates of Putin and Russian energy executives.
- South Korean and US intelligence separately confirmed that North Korean troops have deployed into combat alongside Russian forces in Kursk Oblast.
- Russian forces recently advanced near Toretsk, Kurakhove, and Vuhledar and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and Ukrainian forces recently regained positions near Chasiv Yar.
- Russian forces continue to heavily rely on refurbished tanks and armored vehicles pulled from storage to replace vehicle losses during ongoing combat operations, but likely will not be able to sustain these losses in the long term.
https://t.co/ueFergdwPP
Russian continued ground attacks within the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast on November 13 but did not make any confirmed advances. Russian sources claimed on November 12 and 13 that Russian forces advanced southeast of Korenevo near Novoivanovka, Zeleny Shlyakh, and Darino; south of Sudzha near Kurilovka; and southeast of Sudzha near Plekhovo, although ISW has not observed visual confirmation of these claims.[21] Russian forces continued attacking southeast of Korenevo near Novoivanovka, Leonidovo, Darino, Nikolayevo-Darino, and Malaya Loknya.[22] A Ukrainian soldier operating in Kursk Oblast stated on November 13 that elements of the Russian 83rd Airborne (VDV) Brigade, 155th Naval Infantry Brigade (Pacific Fleet, Eastern Military District [EMD]) and 51st VDV Regiment (106th VDV Division) attacked his brigade's positions in an unspecified area in Kursk Oblast.[23] The Ukrainian soldier stated that Russian forces are conducting daily roughly reinforced platoon-sized mechanized assaults using four to six armored fighting vehicles.
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@KarolinaAHird: If a deal creates a DMZ, it would be on Putin's terms, and he will "simply use that as the front line for the next invasion of Ukraine in five, 10, 15 years, after his army has rested and reconstituted and institutionalized the lessons it is learning in Ukraine."
One idea floated among officials in Trump's camp could see Ukraine pledging not to join NATO for at least 20 years, while Washington continues sending weapons to deter a fresh Russian attack, the Wall Street Journal reported earlier this month, citing three people close to the president-elect.
The conflict would also become frozen, with Russia keeping control of roughly a fifth of Ukraine and an 800-mile demilitarized zone (DMZ) marking Kyiv's and Moscow's control. It would likely be policed by European forces, according to the report, rather than any U.S. forces or U.S.-backed organizations like the United Nations.
Czech President Petr Pavel on Friday echoed these reports, saying that a future deal could include a two-decade-long delay to Ukraine's NATO accession, giving Moscow control over Ukrainian territory it currently holds, and handing Europe the long-term responsibility for protecting the eastern flank of the continent and hundreds of miles of demilitarized territory.
It is not clear where a demilitarized zone would fall, although vice-president-elect JD Vance has said a "peaceful settlement" would likely mean that "the current line of demarcation between Russia and Ukraine, that becomes like a demilitarized zone."
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Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian oil executives reportedly rejected a proposal to merge Russia's three largest oil companies. The Financial Times (FT) reported on November 13, citing unspecified "people," that Russian President Vladimir Putin shot down the proposal to merge Russian state-owned Gazprom Neft, state-affiliated Rosneft, and independently owned Rosneft.[13] FT's sources attributed the proposed merger to Russian Energy Minister Sergei Tsivilev, the husband of Putin's cousin and Russian State Secretary — Deputy Defense Minister Anna Tsivileva. Former Russian oil executives told FT that, while the merger would have given Gazprom Neft and Rosneft access to Lukoil's UAE-based trading arm, concerns over the ability to circumvent Western sanctions and temporarily reduced oil production also contributed to Putin's rejection of the proposed merger. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) first reported on the proposed merger on November 9 but noted that the Kremlin and Rosneft denied the talks while Gazprom Neft and Lukoil did not comment.[14]
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