Strictly my own inexpert worries and opinions — to date I have not seen anyone else express quite the same PoV.
Are we witnessing the de facto death of NATO as presently constituted?
NATO was “born” less than 4 weeks after I was. I think that over the past 75 years NATO has, like me, been in a reasonably healthy state.
I hope that I have some good years left — I’m not noticeably in serious decline, and am planning activities and events (other than my funeral) in the short-term future — say, 5-10 years.
I wish I could say the same for NATO, but I fear for its short- and long-term future.
Implied in the constitution of an alliance like NATO is not just that a bunch of countries agree to a mutual defence pact. I believe that there is also a reasonable expectation by each party that they can share some confidential strategic information that the others will withhold from perceived and actual enemies.
But with the election of Trump as POTUS, and his choices of cabinet members, is there any reason for the rest of NATO to trust the US with such confidential information?
And if the rest of NATO cannot trust the largest, most powerful member (assuming that Trump does not formally withdraw the US from NATO**), does the alliance still hold?
Is NATO still NATO without the full involvement of the US?
What happens now?
** ETA: kalmoth has pointed out that Trump cannot withdraw the US from NATO without fulfilling a condition that is highly unlikely to happen.