I told my wife and friends we'd move to New Zealand if Trump wins. There was no doubt about it—I wasn't going to watch the destruction of U.S. democracy, at least in person. I would spend my days drinking wine, enjoying ocean views, and watching sheep—lots of sheep.
My wife and friends thought I was an idiot and predicted I would stay put. They were right on both counts. I still love New Zealand—the only place more beautiful than my beloved California—but no flight for me. It's stay and fight.
Other than the obvious fact that moving is a pain and California is still pretty nice, I'm staying because I'm pretty sure democracy will survive Trump's second term, in part because of Trumpism's internal contradictions. The economic and social damage will be immense, but our Republic will endure the catastrophe.
The central contradiction of Trumpism is the clash between his authoritarian desires and his ideological program to create a weaker national state —smaller bureaucracies, less regulation, and lower taxes.
Authoritarians love bureaucracies and state power. It takes a lot of people, a lot of money, and a lot of planning to censor political speech, surveil political opponents, put down protests, hunt down undocumented immigrants and other undesirables, and restrict access to reproductive care, at least across state lines. Authoritarianism also takes capable administrators who can oversee vast agencies and patiently accrete power and resources. This is especially the case in the United States, where Democrats will leverage their control of state and local governments to oppose authoritarian measures from Washington, DC. Implementing a true authoritarian regime will take hard work, creativity, and a willingness to enlarge national power.
This is where Trump faces a big problem. He wants to be an authoritarian, but much of Trumpism is devoted to reducing the power of the national state. Trump wants to cut taxes, cut federal spending, and cut federal bureaucracies. If early indications are correct, he plans on staffing the federal government with laughably inept loyalists. Matt Gaetz might fantasize about forever ending the Democrat Party, but do we believe he has the patience, intelligence, and cunning to subvert the professional ethos of the FBI and the rest of the Justice Department? He can fire people, but he'll inevitably fill vacancies positions with other incompetent loyalists. The Justice Department will inevitably become dysfunctional—the precise opposite of what a smart authoritarian leader would want.
Trump's plan to mobilize the military to deport immigrants is an implicit concession that the American state is ill-suited to his authoritarian designs. The various agencies that monitor the border do not have the resources or people to engage in a program of mass deportation. Hiring more agents, supervisors, and support staff will be expensive and time-consuming. Republicans don't have the patience or stomach for such a process, and so the only alternative is the military. Using the military—a force ill-suited for a massive law-enforcement effort—will spark opposition and backlash, not to mention legal challenges. The military's morale will plummet. Men and women trained to operate Patriot batteries and Abrams tanks will not want to find and arrest immigrant families in Modesto or Omaha.
Trump's massive program of deportation, in short, will inevitably be a high-profile failure, a mismatch of state power and his authoritarian fantasies.
Here's another way to think about it. Authoritarians want order and control, while Trumpism thrives on chaos and improvision. Authoritarians demand loyalty and expertise; Trumpism sees the two as fundamentally incompatible.
We should not feel that great about this scenario. A poorly managed federal government will significantly damage the country; tax cuts will exacerbate growing economic inequality, and environmental deregulation will accelerate climate change. Many people will unnecessarily suffer, while others enrich themselves through rampant corruption. But our democracy will still survive, Trumpism will discredit itself, and we will live to win another election.
