The pundits agree. It's a close race, but somebody’s going to win. The ‘Trump will triumph’ crowd point to a supposed tightening of the national polls as proof he has the late momentum.
However, Harris backers have pointed to the latest ‘gold-standard’ Des Moines Register poll, showing Harris has the lead in red state Iowa, as proof that pollsters have overreacted to 2016/2020 polls underestimating Trump support. And that these pollsters are now underestimating Harris’s support.
By itself, the poll is one drop in a bucket of polls supporting every possible position. However, it is buttressed by the latest NYT/Siena poll released on Sunday. This shows that, while the race remains tight, Harris has a 58%-42% advantage among those who decided on their choice in the last few days. Other anecdotal evidence further suggests that Harris leads among those who have just made up their minds.
Voter enthusiasm is hard to predict. However, Trump’s latest rallies do not reflect a highly motivated base.
NBC’s Vaughn Hillyard reported on a less-than-packed Monday morning rally in Raleigh NC
“We’re looking at ... about 70% full here. And for nine years ... we have talked about the enthusiasm and the masses that have come out for Trump’s rallies time and again, even at his politically lowest points, including in 2022.
But interestingly, and I can’t tell you exactly why, but in this final week, we have seen far smaller crowds. We were in Greensboro, NC, where just a few thousand people; Macon, GA, just a few thousand people yesterday. What does that mean? Ultimately, you can only discern so much from what crowd sizes look like. But interestingly, for the first time since I’ve been covering Donald Trump since 2015, there’s been us in the press that have been looking around questioning why the crowd sizes have been less than what we are accustomed to.
Mother Jones’s David Corn was at an afternoon rally in Reading PA, he reported a similar lack of vim among the sparse crowd.
"At the Trump rally in Reading, Pennsylvania, not even the floor is full. Campaign staff is trying to herd attendees into a couple of sections to make the place look packed. Very low energy."
In previous elections, Trump’s disdain for early and mail-in voting had put a damper on Republican pre-election day ballot casting. However in 2024, he has changed his tune. In the final weeks of the race, Trump has been urging MAGAS to bank their votes, with large signs at his rallies spelling out: “VOTE EARLY!”
Yet Democrats still lead (in votes cast by party registration) in the early voting in three Rustbelt toss-up states (MI + 3%, WI + 9%, PA + 32%).
Late endorsements are also swinging Harris’s way. In what is good news for Colin Allred and the Democrats’ chances of holding the Senate — even if Texas remains a stretch for Harris — conservative anti-abortion megachurch pastor William Dwight McKissic Sr, the founder of Cornerstone Baptist Church, in Arlington, TX, has endorsed Kamala for president.
In addition, Kamala’s supposed loss of support among young male Black voters has not been as extreme as the GOP mythologized. And is offset by huge enthusiasm among Black female voters. And pundits have consistently underestimated the effect anti-abortion sadism has had in inspiring voters to back Democrats.
Lastly, Harris and her team have spent time and treasure to ready the get-out-the-vote push on Tuesday. While Trump and the RNC’s GOTV has taken second place to his attempt to thwart a Harris victory in the courts, state legislatures and the US House.
My prediction is a Harris win, followed by a Trumpian firehose of bullshit trying to overturn the result.
