As we closed out the 2024 Campaign Season, the contrast between Kamala Harris and The Clown King (TCK) couldn’t be more stark. Harris focused on positivity and a To-Do-List for the American People, while TCK threatened his perceived political enemies, threatened the media, and found time to simulate a sexual act on a podium microphone while children were in the audience.
Final polls still indicate a close race, but another surprisingly accurate indicator is pointing toward a Kamala Harris win, and that is the S&P 500 Presidential Election Predictor. This indicator looks at the performance of the S&P 500 for the 90 days immediately before Election Day. If it is positive, the candidate of the incumbent party will win. If it is negative, the candidate of the incumbent party will lose. The table here shows the results of the last twenty-four presidential elections before this year. In 21 of the last 24 presidential elections, the indicator accurately predicted the winner with an impressive 87.50% accuracy rate. What is it predicting this year? Well, the 3-Month Return of the S&P 500 ending on 11/04/2024 is a positive 1.10%, and that means we should start preparing for a Harris win!
Warren Buffett famously said that the stock market is a voting machine in the short term and a weighing machine in the long term. Once Kamala Harris became the presumptive nominee, the stock market continued to rise. As her and TCK’s policy positions became known, investors evaluated them and made decisions as to how they would deploy their capital. Because the demand for equities has continued to push the index to record highs, the conclusion could be made that Harris is the preferred candidate.
Despite its limitations, the S&P 500 Presidential Election Predictor offers a compelling snapshot of the nation’s economic sentiment leading up to an election. While it shouldn't be solely relied upon for predicting outcomes, it does provide insight into how the economic environment and public sentiment might influence the voting population. For investors and political watchers alike, it remains an interesting metric to consider during election cycles, reflecting a connection between the economic climate and political continuity in the United States.
Finally, for some more joy, please check out this video for the new song “Time For Change” by Jamar Langley. Jamar was a finalist on Season 23 of The Voice and has made a campaign video for Kamala Harris using his song as the backing track. It has a message of unity and positive change and embodies the spirit of the Harris Campaign. Please share it with your friends and family as we await a Harris-Walz win!
