As North Carolina goes, so goes the nation?
Tomorrow, that may be the case. If Kamala Harris wins North Carolina, then there are very few ways for Donald Trump to put together an electoral college majority.
The bellwether county will be New Hanover — where the fast-growing city of Wilmington is located. New Hanover gave Joe Biden a slim 2% win in 2020, but he still lost statewide. The last time New Hanover went Democratic prior to that was for Jimmy Carter in 1976. Barack Obama came close in 2008 when he barely carried North Carolina. New Hanover gave Reagan a 30-point margin in 1984. George W. Bush won by 10 to 12 points in 2000 and 2004.
Of all the larger urban counties in North Carolina, New Hanover is the most Republican. But it has been steadily moving Democratic over the past 20 years — in large part due to newcomers moving in from more liberal states, but also from a generational shift.
North Carolina’s polls close by 7:30 p.m.,
so results will be coming in fairly soon in the evening.
I would suggest that:
1) If Harris is winning in New Hanover by 2% as Biden did in 2020
> > > then North Carolina will be a nail-biter.
2) If Harris is winning in New Hanover by 4%
> > > then she will likely win North Carolina.
3) But if Trump is winning in New Hanover
> > > then Harris will likely lose North Carolina.
Other important counties to watch are —
On the Harris side:
Mecklenburg (Charlotte) — that was GOP 30 years ago but went 67% for Biden in 2020
Durham (Durham) — that is majority minority and went 80% for Biden in 2020
High turnout and continued solid African American support are essential.
On the Trump side:
Gaston (Gastonia) — working-class suburban county of Charlotte, strong GOP
Johnston — fast-growing food processing and light industrial, strong GOP.
Turnout and Trump’s percentage of the vote may be lower than in 2020
especially considering GOP Mark Robinson’s disastrous gubernatorial run.
I am increasingly confident that Harris will have North Carolina in her column.
And carry New Hanover County by 5+%.
Disclosure statement — I have degrees from both UNC and NC State which I rarely admit at sports venues. I did party far more at Chapel Hill, got serious when I went to State.
