(I’m starting this diary specifically to discuss Assad’s whereabouts and fate.)
CNN is reporting that the Biden administration thinks Assad is on the way out: Assad regime in Syria may fall in days, US increasingly believes:
Biden administration officials, watching the remarkable speed of the Syrian rebel advance, increasingly see the possibility of the regime of Bashar al-Assad falling within days, five US officials told CNN.
If the American analysis proves true, it would represent a spectacularly fast fall from power for the Syrian dictator after a 14-year war, one that had been relatively stagnant until just last week.
Officials cautioned that a formal assessment on Assad’s fate hasn’t emerged and that views vary, saying his demise isn’t a forgone conclusion.
“The emerging consensus is that is an increasingly plausible scenario,” one senior US official said.
“Probably by next weekend the Assad regime will have lost any semblance of power,” another official said.
However, there is a disturbing note in all this:
The Biden administration appeared caught off guard by the speed of the rebel advance launched last week. Regime troops have collapsed and melted away, leaving a fragile shell of an army to defend the president and Damascus.
If that sounds familiar, it is:
The US has misjudged the staying power of regimes before, most recently in Afghanistan — where the US intelligence community judged that the Afghan government would be more resilient than it ultimately was — and in Ukraine, which the US wrongly believed would fall to Russia within days of Moscow’s invasion. As a result, in 2022 the US intelligence launched a review of how it assesses the “will to fight” of foreign militaries, CNN previously reported.
I’d say another review is in order. Foreign Policy has its own analysis: Why Assad’s Regime Is Collapsing So Quickly (Dec. 5):
For policymakers in the United States, the fact that regional actors appeared to be taking charge of the Syria file was an encouraging sign and a source of relief. More recently, driven by their opposition to the European Union’s policy of isolating Assad and belief in his consolidated victory, a group of 10 European states, led by Italy, have joined forces as they seek to reengage Assad’s regime and explore avenues for diplomacy and refugee returns to Syria.
All of these developments were undergirded by the assumption that although conditions in Syria were bad, the crisis itself was both frozen and contained—and that Assad himself was not just strengthening his position but consolidating it, too. That assumption was misplaced. [emphasis added]
Basically, “Syria’s economy has been in shambles for years.” And Assad did nothing to improve the lives of the Syrian people. The UN reports “that at least 90 percent of Syrians now live under the poverty line.” Nor can Assad cannot count on help from his usual friends:
Assad no longer has anybody to rescue him from state bankruptcy. Russia’s economy has been hit hard by the effects of its war in Ukraine, and Iran’s economy is in poor shape, too.
At least we can take some small comfort from the apparent fact that Iran and Russia also misjudged the Syrian situation. Retreat of Syrian Forces Threatens ‘Saigon Moment’ for Russia (WSJ subscription required).
It is now being reported by WION that Bashar al-Assad's family flees Syria, president's whereabouts unclear:
As rebels continue to take control of more cities in Syria, Bashar al-Assad’s family is reported to have fled to Russia, the Wall Street Journal has reported. This includes his wife, children and two of his brothers-in-law.
Meantime, per Newsweek: Syrian Government Denies Assad Has Fled as Rebels Advance.
To be continued. . . .
-------------------— Update 1: 1505 PT 7 Dec ------------------—
Bloomberg reports as of 2 hours ago that Syria’s Assad is Under Siege and Is Making Overtures to US:
With Syrian rebels edging ever-closer to the capital, President Bashar Al-Assad is making a last-ditch attempt to remain in power, including indirect diplomatic overtures to the US and President-elect Donald Trump, according to people with direct knowledge of the situation.
Biden is still the president for another 6 weeks, but apparently both Assad and Trump are ignoring that. Anyway, Trump — whose 2019 pullout from Syria upset even his supporters: Republicans slam Trump's Syria pullout: 'Disaster,' 'Betrayal,' 'Mistake' — says the US should have nothing to do with the current conflict:
Trump, who finds himself in Paris, has responded to events on the ground. He took to X to say: “There was never much of a benefit in Syria for Russia, other than to make Obama look really stupid. In any event, Syria is a mess, but is not our friend, & THE UNITED STATES SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH IT. THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT. LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED!”
Meanwhile. . . .
The president’s whereabouts are unclear, although he’s believed to be in Damascus or his hometown of Al-Qardaha, close to Russia’s Khmeimim airbase. It’s also possible he’s in the Iranian capital, Tehran, a person familiar with US policy said Saturday.
Assad’s office issued a statement condemning “rumors and fake news,” saying the president remains in the capital.
and
Assad’s own Alawite community, which has stuck by him since 2011 and paid a heavy price to defend the regime, also appears to sense the end may be near.
-----------------------------— Update 2 1540 ------------------------—
BNE (formerly Business News Europe) which covers Europe and the Middle East, reports 2 hours ago that Assad has fled: #BREAKING Assad flees Syria for Abu Dhabi, regime falls – Turkish press reports:
A private jet departed Damascus and arrived in Abu Dhabi on December 7, carrying Syria's President Bashar al-Assad and the rest of his family, as they fled rebels rapidly taking control of his country, Turkish media have reported.
Flight radar data reviewed by bne IntelliNews showed a private aircraft leaving the Syrian capital and later landing in the United Arab Emirates. bne IntelliNews could not independently verify who was on board or the purpose of the flight.
The Economic Times has a similar report, though it says Assad’s whereabouts are unknown.
----------------------------— Update 3 1800 PT -----------------------------—
CNN: Syrian rebels appear to have entered Damascus as Assad regime’s defenses crumble
By early Sunday morning, a source familiar with the rebel’s advance told CNN: “Militarily, Damascus has fallen.”
As for Assad himself:
Although the official line from the Syrian president’s office is that Assad has not fled, a source with knowledge of the situation told CNN that Assad is nowhere to be found in Damascus.
