The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.
Subscribe to The Downballot, our weekly podcast
Leading Off
● Primary Night: Primary season is about to (largely) go on a month-long break, but before it does, we've got one of the most packed election nights for all of 2024 on Tuesday. Jeff Singer previews the major races we have in store for us ahead of this mid-season finale in Colorado, New York, South Carolina, and Utah.
Rep. Lauren Boebert appears poised to complete the toughest part of her district swap, though her many primary rivals in eastern Colorado still haven't given up hope that they can do what Boebert herself did four years ago and pull off a true upset.
There's more suspense, however, back in the western part of the state as Democrats are doing what they can to elevate an underfunded election denier who represents the closest thing there is to Lauren Boebert 2.0. But national Republicans aren't sitting by passively. They're running ads to deter their base from picking a nominee who could threaten their hold on what should be a secure seat—again.
There's even more to watch elsewhere in Colorado and across the nation on Tuesday. Donald Trump is pushing to install his lackeys in office around the country. Among the most notorious are a televangelist who wants his state's senior senator to be executed and a state GOP chair whose call to burn pride flags infuriated even fellow Republicans. However, this informal Trump slate must overcome a series of well-funded blockades aimed at thwarting hardliners.
We also have plenty to see on the Democratic side, including the resolution of the most expensive House primary ever. We've got the complete dope on all of these races and more—including a special election that Democrats hope will yield yet another strong showing—in Singer's preview.
The first polls close Tuesday evening at 7 PM ET in South Carolina. We'll begin our liveblog at Daily Kos Elections two hours later, when polls close in Colorado and New York.
Senate
● FL-Sen: The Florida AFL-CIO has endorsed businessman Stanley Campbell in the Aug. 20 Democratic primary over former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, who is the frontrunner to take on Republican Sen. Rick Scott. The Palm Beach Post identifies the state AFL-CIO, which represents over 1 million members, as the Sunshine State's largest labor organization.
● MD-Sen: The Democratic firm Public Policy Polling shows Democrat Angela Alsobrooks leading Republican Larry Hogan 45-34 in the first poll anyone has released since Alsobrooks won her expensive primary in mid-May. This survey, which PPP informs Daily Kos Elections was not done on behalf of a client, also shows Joe Biden leading Donald Trump 56-30 four years after the president carried Maryland 65-32.
Governors
● MO-Gov, MO-AG: A pair of surveys from the GOP firm Remington Research Group conducted for different clients during opposite ends of June each find Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft with only a single-digit advantage in the Aug. 6 GOP primary for governor of Missouri, a contest where RRG previously showed Ashcroft as the clear frontrunner.
RRG's survey from June 5-6 for Will Scharf, a Trump lawyer who is running for attorney general, gives Ashcroft a 29-21 lead against Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe, with state Sen. Bill Eigel taking another 8%. (We discuss Scharf's race later in this item.) The firm's June 19-20 poll for the local tip-sheet Missouri Scout, by contrast, gives Ashcroft just a slender 31-29 edge over the lieutenant governor, with Eigel similarly situated with 9%.
The secretary of state has spent the primary looking like a strong contender to claim the office that his father, John Ashcroft, held before he served in the U.S. Senate and as George W. Bush's first attorney general, but Kehoe has constantly enjoyed one key advantage. Kehoe and his joint fundraising committee have brought in by far the most cash in the GOP primary to replace termed-out incumbent Mike Parson.
Kehoe's side got still more help recently when conservative megadonor Rex Sinquefield invested another $1 million into his allied PAC. (Sinquefield, as a 2014 Politico profile detailed, is devoted to advancing three "idiosyncratic passions: promoting chess, dismantling the traditional public school system and eliminating income taxes.") Updated reports are due July 15, and they'll tell us if Ashcroft remains well behind financially as he tries to defend his longheld frontrunner status.
Both of RRG's new polls, by contrast, show Scharf with a single-digit deficit in the GOP primary against his fellow hardliner, appointed Attorney General Andrew Bailey, with a huge portion of uncommitted voters. The earlier poll for Scharf, which Politico first publicized on Monday, puts the incumbent in the lead 24-18, while the more recent numbers for the Missouri Scout have Bailey up 27-23. The polls respectively find 58% and 50% undecided.
An early June WPA Intelligence poll for the pro-Scharf Club for Growth had the attorney general ahead by a much larger 37-17 spread, though the Club argued that, with the right attacks, the challenger's well-funded allies could change the trajectory of the contest.
Scharf's side, as we recently wrote, has a massive cash edge thanks in large part to powerful national conservative Leonard Leo and his network. But while Bailey has Sinquefield and some other well-heeled allies in his corner, the $250,000 that the Sinquefield Cup's namesake recently contributed to his allied PAC is dwarfed by what Scharf's backers have at their disposal.
● UT-Gov, UT-Sen: Noble Predictive Insights, a firm that sometimes conducts polls for conservative clients, gives Gov. Spencer Cox a 55-42 lead over far-right state Rep. Phil Lyman in Tuesday's GOP primary, a double-digit advantage that's still considerably closer than what the few other public polls have found. A mid-April survey from NPI found Cox demolishing his opponent 51-4, while an early June poll from HarrisX had the governor ahead 62-25.
The Senate portion of NPI's newest poll is less surprising, and it finds Rep. John Curtis outpacing Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs 48-28 in the GOP primary to succeed retiring incumbent Mitt Romney; HarrisX gave Curtis a similar 34-16 advantage earlier this month.
Staggs, who has Donald Trump's endorsement, has argued that it's time to "replace Joe Biden’s favorite Republican with Donald Trump’s favorite Republican in Utah," but as we detail in our primary preview, major donors are dedicating relatively little money to make this happen.
House
● MO-01: Rep. Cori Bush is using one of her first TV ads for the Aug. 6 Democratic primary to try to make AIPAC's heavy spending for St. Louis County Prosecuting Attorney Wesley Bell into a liability for him. "Donald Trump and [Sen.] Josh Hawley's donors are bankrolling Wesley Bell," declares Bush's narrator. "These ads are paid for by Republican billionaires attacking our congresswoman and our home."
Bush's ally, New York Rep. Jamaal Bowman, has been trying the same argument ahead of his renomination battle on Tuesday, and we're about to get a good read on how effective this line of attack is.
● NJ-10: Democratic Sen. Cory Booker has endorsed Newark City Council President LaMonica McIver three weeks ahead of the July 16 Democratic primary in the special election to fill the late Rep. Donald Payne's seat.
● TX-13, TX-38: The House Ethics Committee released reports Monday that shed more light into separate allegations that two Texas Republicans, Reps. Ronny Jackson and Wesley Hunt, had improperly used campaign funding for non-campaign purposes. The panel's board recommended that the body "further review" the allegations against each of them.
The committee disclosed reports by the independent Office of Congressional Ethics that found each congressman's campaign had paid several thousands of dollars in membership dues at a private dining club in his respective district—Jackson at The Amarillo Club in Amarillo and Hunt at The Oak Room in Houston. Both congressmen claimed that the payments were legitimate because they used the locations for campaign-related events.
The OCE previously made this allegation against Jackson two years ago, and the committee revealed in May that it was looking into both congressmen but didn't disclose the subject of its probe into Hunt. While both Republicans claimed last month that they would cooperate with the committee, the OCE contends that neither Jackson nor Hunt sufficiently cooperated with its own investigations.
Both incumbents secured renomination in March and are each defending reliably red seats.
● WA-03: The Democratic firm Public Policy Polling, working on behalf of the Northwest Progressive Institute, shows far-right Republican Joe Kent edging out freshman Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez 46-45 in a potential general election rematch. The sample favors Donald Trump 50-45, which is similar to his 51-47 victory here four years ago.
The release for this poll, which is the first we've seen here, did not include numbers testing another Republican, Camas City Councilmember Leslie Lewallen, in either an Aug. 6 top-two primary or a hypothetical general election against the incumbent. Lewallen, though, is still hoping that bad memories of Kent's 2022 loss to Gluesenkamp Perez—a 50.1-49.3 upset that helped Democrats win every House seat that touches the Pacific Ocean—will convince voters to give her a look.
Lewallen uses her new TV ad to argue that Gluesenkamp Perez, who is one of the most prominent centrists in the Democratic caucus, is bringing "chaos" to southwest Washington, but "Joe Kent can't stop her." Lewallen continues of her intra-party rival, "He had his chance, he lost. I can, and I will."
Ballot Measures
● MT Ballot: Organizers announced Friday they have submitted roughly 117,000 voter signatures for a ballot initiative that would enshrine abortion rights in Montana's constitution. Supporters need roughly 60,000 valid signatures statewide and approximately 600 signatures from 40 of Montana's 100 state House districts.
County officials have until July 19 to verify them, and GOP Secretary of State Christi Jacobsen's office has until Aug. 22 to certify whether the amendment qualifies for November's ballot.
Other Races
● GA Public Service Commission: On Monday, the Supreme Court declined to hear an appeal by Voting Rights Act plaintiffs challenging Georgia's statewide election method for its Public Service Commission, a body that regulates certain utilities. The decision leaves in place last year's 11th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals ruling that overturned a trial court's order for Georgia to adopt district-based elections to replace the statewide system under which a Black candidate has won just once ever.
Consequently, Georgians will continue to elect commissioners, all five of whom are currently Republicans, in staggered statewide elections for six-year terms. Due to the court rulings and appeals, PSC elections in 2022 and 2024 were canceled and three commissioners—a majority—are serving after their terms were supposed to expire.
Elections will resume starting with November 2025 specials, when appointed Commissioner Fitz Johnson will be up for a one-year term and incumbent Tom Echols will be up for a five-year term. The winner of Johnson's seat will be up for a full term along with incumbent Jason Shaw in 2026. Commissioners Bubba McDonald and Tricia Pridemore will go before voters in 2028, and the special election winner for Echols' seat will be up for a full term in 2030.
However, there may be a silver lining for Black voters, who heavily favor Democrats. Georgia shifted significantly leftward during the Trump era, culminating in Joe Biden's 2020 victory and Democratic wins for Senate in the 2020 and 2022 cycles. Two Black Democrats only narrowly lost contests for the PSC in the 2020 cycle, and Democrats could flip the board later this decade.
A switch to district-based elections, by contrast, could have made it almost impossible for Democrats to ever flip the PSC because Republicans had already planned to gerrymander a 4-1 majority.
Poll Pile
- AZ-Sen: North Star Opinion Research (R) for American Greatness: Ruben Gallego (D): 39, Kari Lake (R): 38, Eduardo Quintana (G): 9 (48-42 Trump in two-way, 42-32 Trump with third-party candidates)
Ad Roundup
Campaign Action