Sometimes, it pays to get in front of a damaging story that may derail an entire race. A story such as this one will be attack ad fodder because it is an unforced error. Dave Min has to be ready to counter this problem.
California state Sen. Dave Min (D-Irvine), who is running for Congress next year in a competitive Orange County district, was arrested on suspicion of drunk driving and released from Sacramento County jail Wednesday, according to Sacramento Sheriff’s Department and California Highway Patrol records.
Min confirmed the arrest in a social media post that he was cited with a misdemeanor DUI.
“Last night I was cited for a misdemeanor for driving under the influence,” Min wrote on Facebook Wednesday. “My decision to drive last night was irresponsible. I accept full responsibility and there is no excuse for my actions. To my family, constituents and supporters, I am so deeply sorry. I know I need to do better. I will not let this personal failure distract from our work in California and in Washington.”
It has already led to a highly divisive Top 2 primary in California in the 47th district, where activist Joanna Weiss sent a very nasty ad barrage Min’s way and Min responded with some mudslinging of his own. This was the state of the race in February 2024.
The intraparty contest between two Democrats vying for Rep. Katie Porter’s toss-up Orange County seat is rapidly emerging as one of the most vicious primary battles in California.
The latest salvo: an ad from state Sen. Dave Min accusing his rival, Joanna Weiss, of powering her campaign with money earned through the legal defense of sex offenders. The attack comes a week after Weiss released an ad slamming Min for his DUI arrest last year.
The volley of attack ads is the most public manifestation yet of a feud that has been playing out in Democratic circles for months. The two camps have been making their case to party bigwigs and activists that their rival’s baggage could compromise Democrats’ chances of holding on to a hard-fought swing seat that could very well tip the balance of power in the House in November.
Min won the second spot in the Top 2 primary with 25.9% of the vote, outpacing Weiss who only won 19.4% of the vote. The GOP frontrunner, Scott Baugh, captured 32.1% of the vote.
It remains to be seen whether or not Dave Min can pick up the pieces and reassemble the Democratic coalition here. The question for him is whether or not being Rep. Katie Porter’s protégé is enough to secure him the victory here.
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Dave Min for California-47
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What’s the Big Idea?
Election results by precinct in 2022.
THIS DISTRICT IS A TOSSUP, with a D+3 PVI
There was a time when Orange County was considered reliably Republican turf. It was the turf that won the state for Reagan, and for Nixon as well. Those days are long gone, and Orange County started changing when the demographics of the county started changing. A Congressional district first fell in 1996, but the county remained stubbornly in the thrall of the GOP.
Even during the elections of 2008 and 2012, Obama failed to win the county. That’s how strong the legacy of voting for the GOP is. In 2016, Clinton was the first Democratic candidate to carry to county since FDR in 1936. Biden would carry the county (and this district; 54.5% to 43.4%) again 4 years later, and by a wider margin. Orange County is changing, and that was nowhere more evident than during the 2018 blue wave election when Rep. Katie Porter wrested this seat away from GOP Rep. Mimi Walters.
Elsewhere in the county, there was a snap back to the GOP in 2020, but Rep. Katie Porter continued winning. She was almost caught napping against Scott Baugh (who is the GOP nominee again this year), only winning by 9000 votes or so — a 51.7% to 48.3% margin. It is this result combined with a weak nominee in Dave Min that makes this district a tossup despite Biden likely winning the district again.
Here’s where this race will be won in the 47th district.
- Irvine: This is the home base for Min, and it is important that he turn out everyone willing to vote for him. There are other parts of the district that aren’t nearly as good to him as this city is, so he needs a supercharged turnout from the Democratic anchor of the district.
- Costa Mesa: This city is not quite as Democratic as Irvine, but it is still a key part of the coalition Dave Min needs to get to Congress. Full of white and Hispanic voters (Irvine is Asian), it truly is a rainbow coalition he needs to win over his opponent.
Here’s where we need to keep the margins down, or we lose.
- Huntington Beach: This was ground zero against the COVID restrictions in 2020-21. There was definitely a conservative backlash in this area, and now this city is included in the district. Hopefully the people there have mellowed out a couple years later, because Min needs at least 45% of the vote to win here.
- Newport Beach: This city also was heavily featured in the conservative backlash to COVID restrictions. It isn’t as large of a city as the other one, but it compensates by being more conservative. Min needs about 42% of the vote here to win, and I hope he can manage that.
Dave Min: The FInancial Guru
State Sen. Dave Min was the winner of a feisty Top 2 primary despite being a flawed nominee.
Dave Min was born in 1976 to Korean-American immigrants and grew up in the San Francisco Bay area. He graduated from Wharton School of Business at Pennsylvania University for his undergraduate program, and then he graduated from Harvard University with a JD, specializing in financial law.
Min would go on to work in the financial sector for a while before becoming an attorney at the SEC and Banking Committee counsel for Sen. Chuck Schumer. He became a financial advisor for various think tanks and policy centers, including the Center for American Progress. He testified on the impact of Dodd-Frank regulations in Congress in 2012.
Eventually, Min would wind up a professor at UC Irvine, the same as Rep. Katie Porter. He specialized in banking, capital markets, and real estate finance. The two professors would run against one another in the 2018 blue wave election. He was inspired to run because of Donald Trump’s Muslim ban. After a contentious convention where Dave Min was favored by the California Democratic Party, Rep. Katie Porter ultimately secured a spot in the Top 2 primary system.
The two rivals became fast friends after that race, with Porter supporting Min for his 2020 State Senate run. Min has to dispatch Costa Mesa mayor Katrina Foley in another contentious primary. Min narrowly won that race, having gained 51.2% of the vote against the incumbent State Sen. John Moorlach. Instead of running for another term, Min decided to run for the 47th district, which Rep. Katie Porter vacated for her Senate run, in 2024.
Min is also strong on the issues of combatting domestic violence and sexual abuse. Min would also strengthen hate law protections, especially for those targeting Asian-Americans with hatred. His wife is a leader on these issues, and she has helped Min craft much of the legislation mentioned above. Min would be a leader in Congress on these issues as well. Min’s issues page details his stances on many other of the key issues of his campaign as well.
Min is a much better choice for Orange County, warts and all. Min lists all of his accomplishments on his campaign website.
Scott Baugh and His Dirty Tricks
Scott Baugh has been a fixture in Orange County politics for decades. He has high name recognition.
Scott Baugh was born in Redding, CA in 1962 to a rather large family. He is an alumnus of Liberty University, having earned a degree in business administration. He then went on to earn his JD degree with honors from McGeorge School of Law. Baugh would then settle down in Huntington Beach, CA to practice the law.
Baugh became involved in politics in 1995 during the recall of State Rep. Doris Allen because she became House Speaker primarily with the vote of Democrats. Once Allen was recalled, Baugh ran in her stead and won the district centered on Huntington Beach. He was termed out in 2000 after rising to House Republican Leader.
From 2004 to 2015, Baugh was the chairman of the Orange County GOP. He also helped run Mitt Romney’s finance committee during the 2008 GOP primary. Baugh would take a break from politics for a couple of years, but he came back in 2018 to run for the 48th district. He would place 4th in that contest. He would run again in 2022 against Rep Katie Porter and hold her to a narrow win.
Scott Baugh has a criminal past when it comes to election laws. When running in the 1990s, Baugh ran afoul of California campaign finance laws and eventually paid around a $50k fine. He also had associates change the registration of Orange County residents to the GOP, leading to 12 arrests (though Baugh avoided arrest here). It is clear that we should expect dirty machinations from the Baugh campaign.
To make matters worse, Baugh is an election denier. Baugh is the founder of an organization that has attempted to disenfranchise Californians and spread election disinformation. Baugh also refused to admit that Joe Biden’s 2020 election wasn’t “marred by fraud”. He called the 1/6 Committee “a bit of a sham show”. Combined with the problems above, it is a frightening fact that Baugh will do anything to win an election, including discrediting the system.
Baugh also spouts off other conspiracy theories, including that “wokeism” is more dangerous to America than 9/11 and World War II. He claims that religious freedom is under attack in America, and that only the GOP stands in the way of Godless communism. He even claims that churches are starting to ‘get infected’ by “wokeism”!
Baugh has had a long tenure in politics which gives Democrats plenty of attack ad fodder. His issues page neglects many key issues, which is why the DCCC opposition file fills in the gaps in his horrendous record.
How Can You Help?
With the problems listed in the opening, supporting Dave Min is going to be a tough sell for the constituents of California’s 47th district. It is going to take a huge persuasion campaign to prevent voters from defecting to Scott Baugh, even though Democrats have a voter registration edge in this district. It will take money, volunteers, and making people aware of Baugh’s horrendous record to win here.
Luckily, Min has raised a ton of money after the primary. Baugh still has the edge in terms of cash-on-hand, but Min is closing the gap fast!
This race is in the Los Angeles media market, which is one of the most expensive in the nation. Outside money is flooding into this area because of all of the competitive Congressional races. Not all of the $19.2M reserved by the House Majority PAC (Dem) and the $18.2M reserved by the Congressional Leadership Fund (GOP) is earmarked for this race. A significant portion of it will definitely be spent here though. Even the NRCC is getting in on the action with a $2.5M ad buy.
There will be a canvassing event on July 13th in Irvine. If you live in the area, please help Min by participating. Right now is a critical time to persuade voters not to give up on Democrats, so be prepared for voters that aren’t the most enthusiastic.
The Tour to Save Democracy is also hosting an event for Dave Min on July 16th from 1-3PM EDT. This tour is travelling around the country to the most vulnerable seats to fire up Gen-Z activists to take back the House and retain the Senate. The location of this event is private for now, so expect details to be revealed closer to the event launch.
If you live elsewhere, there are chances to help Min with phone banking. It’s virtual, meaning that you can join from anywhere in the nation. The next opportunity is tomorrow night from 6-8PM PDT. Thursday seems to be the day the Min campaign reserves for this critical outreach, because he has booked phone banking events every Thursday until the election.
I’m considerably worried about this race despite Biden likely winning the district again. The divisive primary is a staple of this area, but nominating someone damaged by an arrest, conviction, and on-going probation adds to the challenge. Dave Min is campaigning for an open seat, and those are always harder to win. Maybe my worries are misplaced, because Min has released polling that shows him ahead. This is pre-debate though, so it should be taken with a grain of salt.
Scott Baugh has some skeletons in the closet, and that fact gives me hope. He’s trying to flip a district that Daily Kos Elections rates as the 20th most vulnerable seat in Democratic hands, but I think it undersells how vulnerable we are here. Rep. Katie Porter fended off Baugh in 2022, but Dave Min is no Katie Porter.
The real question is whether Porter can shepherd her protégé through this race and have Dave Min be the next member of Congress from the district.
Dave Min for California-47
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