Russian forces conducted drone and missile strikes against Ukraine on the night of July 9 to 10 and a missile strike against Mykolaiv Oblast during the day on July 10.
The crisis of credibility in the Russian army is so severe that commanders are having to check soldier’s locations using drones and red underwear.
The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched one Iskander-M ballistic missile, four Kh-59/69 cruise missiles, and 20 Shahed-136/131 drones at Ukraine overnight on July 9 to 10.[90] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces shot down 14 Shahed drones over Odesa, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Dnipropetrovsk, Khmelnytskyi, Cherkassy, Vinnytsia, and Rivne oblasts and prevented three Kh-59/69 missiles and three Shahed drones from reaching their target via unspecified means. Ukrainian authorities reported that missile debris damaged port infrastructure, killed two, and wounded one near Odesa's port.[91] Ukrainian state electricity transmission operator Ukrenergo and the Rivne Oblast Military Administration reported that Russian drones struck energy infrastructure in Rivne Oblast causing power outages in half of the region.[92] Mykolaiv Oblast Military Administration Head Vitaliy Kim stated that a Russian missile of unspecified type struck civilian infrastructure Voznesensk, killing one and wounding eight.[93]
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- Ukrainian First Deputy Defense Minister Lieutenant General Ivan Havrylyuk stressed that robust Western security assistance will be crucial for Ukraine's ability to contest and seize the battlefield initiative. Havrylyuk also challenged the notion that Russian forces will be able to indefinitely sustain the consistent gradual creeping advances that support Russian President Vladimir Putin's theory of victory for winning a war of attrition in Ukraine.
- Ukrainian forces are already attempting to contest the battlefield initiative in limited and localized counterattacks at the tactical level — emphasizing that the current state of grinding positional warfare along the frontline is not an indefinitely stable one.
- Havrylyuk assessed that Russia will face medium- to long-term economic and equipment challenges that will impede the Russian military's ability to indefinitely retain the theater-wide initiative, sustain consistent offensive pressure that results in gradual creeping advances, and win a war of attrition.
- Putin's articulated theory of a slow, grinding victory in Ukraine is notably premised on accepting continuously high casualty rates, as exemplified by reported Russian losses accrued during two recent offensive efforts.
- NATO allies reaffirmed their commitment to supporting Ukraine and announced new security assistance packages for the Ukrainian war effort at the NATO summit in Washington, DC on July 9 and 10.
- Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev reaffirmed that Russia would not accept or uphold any negotiated peace settlements with Kyiv short of Ukrainian capitulation, the destruction of the entire Ukrainian state, and the full occupation of Ukraine.
- Servicemembers of a Russian motorized rifle regiment that was previously implicated in the execution of Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) in late May 2024 reportedly executed two Ukrainian POWs in the same area in western Zaporizhia Oblast in June 2024.
- Select US military bases in Europe have instituted increased alert levels in response to intensified Russian sabotage and hybrid operations against NATO allies over the past several months.
- Russian forces recently advanced in Vovchansk, near Kreminna, and near Toretsk.
- The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed on July 10 that the Russian military trained the first batch of Moscow Military District (MMD) counter-drone instructors at the Alabino training ground in Moscow Oblast.
Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces are attempting to sustain offensive operations in the Kharkiv direction despite heavy losses and a lack of progress. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on July 9 that Ukrainian forces stopped the Russian offensive operation in Kharkiv Oblast in May and June and partially credited the US government for its recent permission for Ukraine to strike some military targets within Russia with US-provided weapons.[49] Ukrainian Kharkiv Group of Forces Chief of Staff Colonel Viktor Solimchuk stated that Russian forces are still attempting to create a "buffer zone" to conduct artillery strikes on Kharkiv City but that heavy Russian losses are complicating Russia's ability to intensify offensive operations in the area.[50] Solimchuk stated that Russian forces are specifically concentrating on battles within Vovchansk and intensifying offensive operations in the direction of Lyptsi and Starytsya.[51] Solimchuk added that Russian forces in the area still have significant offensive potential and are currently regrouping, replenishing degraded forces, improving logistics, and training assault groups in the rear.[52] Solimchuk and Ukrainian Kharkiv Group of Forces Colonel Yuriy Povkh stated that Russian forces will continue efforts to probe Ukrainian defense elsewhere along the international border in northeastern Ukraine in an effort to fix Ukrainian forces along a wider front.[53] Povkh added that Russian forces are transferring additional engineering equipment to northern Kharkiv Oblast to construct and expand fortifications at recently seized positions and ISW has collected satellite imagery showing new Russian field fortifications in recently Russian-seized territories in northern Kharkiv Oblast.[54] Povkh and Solimchuk noted that Ukrainian forces lack the necessary air defense assets in the Kharkiv direction to sufficiently defend against the Russian aviation threat and that Russian forces launched almost 1,700 glide bombs in the Kharkiv direction between May 10 and July 8.[55]
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Russian forces recently marginally advanced NW of Kreminna amid continued Russian ground attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on July 10. Geolocated footage published on July 10 indicates that Russian forces recently marginally advanced south of Novovodyane.
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Russian forces recently advanced in the Toretsk direction. Geolocated footage published on July 10 shows that Russian forces advanced southwards towards the northern outskirts of Pivdenne (southeast of Toretsk).
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Solovyov, who demonstrates his loyalty to Putin’s regime by doggedly producing reports from the frontlines, relayed another glaring issue. He said Russian military commanders have been falsely claiming to have taken certain towns or villages. “You brought up lying,” he said. “My close friend, Ilyukha—I talk about him a lot—the head of combat training for the fifth brigade, created a system of red underpants. They would regularly get hit because of their lying neighboring units. They exclaimed that certain places were taken, but then it turned out that they actually weren’t.”
Solovyov described the process that had to be created because of these deceptive commanders: A surveillance drone is sent to the area that was supposedly taken by Russian troops, “If you’re really there, wave a red rag over your head. Then it becomes clear whether you’re really there, or are just claiming to be there in your reports. This is called a system of red underpants, it works very well. You immediately see what is real and what is a fairy tale.”
