The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.
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Leading Off
● NJ-Sen: New Jersey Sen. Bob Menendez was convicted in federal court Tuesday on all 16 counts of corruption he was charged with last year and is scheduled to be sentenced on Oct. 29. However, while it remains likely that Rep. Andy Kim, who won the Democratic primary for Menendez's Senate seat in June, will succeed the incumbent in the 119th Congress, there are many questions about just what will happen next.
Menendez, who is still a member of the Democratic caucus in the Senate, turned in enough signatures in May to run in the general election as an independent. However, he still has until Aug. 16 to withdraw his name. Kim would be the favorite with or without Menendez on the ballot in this reliably blue state, though Republicans are hoping that their nominee, wealthy developer Curtis Bashaw, can put up a fight.
It also remains to be seen whether Menendez, who predicted his conviction would be reversed on appeal, will be able to complete the rest of his term. Two prominent Democrats, Gov. Phil Murphy and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, both called on the senator to resign following Tuesday's verdict, with Murphy going on a step further.
"If he refuses to vacate his office," said the second-term governor in a statement, "I call on the U.S. Senate to vote to expel him."
It would take two-thirds of the body to make Menendez the first senator to be expelled since the Civil War, when multiple members were ejected for supporting the Confederacy.
If Menendez were to leave office―one way or the other―before his term ends in January, it would be up to Murphy to appoint a successor for the remainder of his current term. In his statement following Menendez's conviction, Murphy said that he would "make a temporary appointment" should a vacancy arise, which would seem to rule out Kim as an option.
(The governor and the congressman are anything but allies: Murphy's wife, former financier Tammy Murphy, ran against Kim in the primary, though she dropped out in March after repeated setbacks.)
There's also the question of whether the Garden State could end up hosting two Senate elections. In theory, if Menendez were to leave quickly enough, a special election for the final two months of his term could be held in November, simultaneously with the regular election for a full six-year term. But such a special election might not be practical, since New Jersey law would also require a primary, and there just might not be enough time to conduct one.
The state's last Senate vacancy arose when Democratic Sen. Frank Lautenberg died on June 3, 2013. Then-Gov. Chris Christie set a primary for Aug. 13 followed by a special election on Oct. 16—a Wednesday. That allowed Christie, a Republican who was up for reelection that fall, to avoid appearing on the same ballot as Democrat Cory Booker, the popular Newark mayor who won the special.
P.S. While no senator has been expelled since 1862, several others resigned in disgrace to avoid such a fate. This roster includes Harrison Williams, a New Jersey Democrat who was convicted in May of 1981 for corruption in the wide-ranging scandal nicknamed "Abscam."
Williams initially refused to resign, but Democrats sought to change his mind after Republican Tom Kean won the race to succeed termed-out Gov. Brendan Byrne that November. Democrats called for Williams to quit while Byrne, whose term was set to end the following January, was still in a position to appoint a fellow Democrat.
However, the senator turned down their entreaties. Byrne, explains the New Jersey Globe's David Wildstein, still held out hope for a last-second change of heart, and he even attended Kean's inaugural carrying a letter that would have appointed former state Senate President Joseph Merlino to a vacant seat.
That letter was worthless, though, by the time Williams' expulsion trial began in March of 1982. Williams at last quit when he realized that he was all but assured of getting the boot, and Kean picked Republican Nicholas Brady to replace him. Brady, however, did not run that fall and Democrat Frank Lautenberg reclaimed the seat for his party, while Williams went on to serve 21 months in prison.
Election Recaps
● NJ-10: Newark City Council President LaMonica McIver overwhelmingly defeated Linden Mayor Derek Armstead 47-14 in Tuesday's 11-way special Democratic primary for New Jersey's 10th District.
McIver should likewise have no trouble in the Sept. 18 general election to succeed Rep. Donald Payne, a Democrat who died in May, in a constituency that President Joe Biden carried 81-19 in 2020. This contest will be on a Wednesday, though most elections in New Jersey, including this primary, are on Tuesdays. (That said, the 2013 special election to fill the seat held by the late Sen. Frank Lautenberg was also held on a Wednesday.)
Democratic leaders from the 10th District's three counties are set to meet Thursday to pick a nominee to replace Payne—who posthumously won renomination in June—as their nominee for the full two-year term. There's little question, though, that they'll choose McIver, who won her primary with the support of prominent state and local party leaders.
Governors
● IN-Gov, IN-04: Monday was the deadline for major-party nominees in Indiana to take their names off the general election ballot, and―despite speculation to the contrary―no notable candidates ended their campaigns.
The Democratic nominee for governor remains Jennifer McCormick, a former Republican state education superintendent who won her new party's primary without opposition in May.
Powerful Republican attorney Jim Bopp instigated rumors that she'd drop out last month after far-right pastor Micah Beckwith won his party's convention for lieutenant governor, a development he argued would hurt the party's nominee for governor, Sen. Mike Braun. (Nominees for governor and lieutenant governor are selected separately in the Hoosier State but run together as a ticket in the general election.)
However, while Bopp predicted in a memo that McCormick would step aside so that party leaders could replace her with former Sen. Joe Donnelly, there was never any indication that Democrats were considering such a swap. McCormick's team quickly said she would not be dropping out, while Donnelly, who recently finished his stint as ambassador to the Vatican, didn't show any obvious interest in running.
McCormick and her running mate, former state House Minority Leader Terry Goodin, will be the underdogs in a conservative state. Braun also ended June with a $1.7 million to $700,000 cash advantage over McCormick.
Over in the 4th District, meanwhile, GOP Rep. Jim Baird remains his party's nominee for his safely red constituency despite some chatter last year about his plans.
Howey Politics relayed speculation in September that Baird could retire this cycle and time his departure to ensure that his son, state Rep. Beau Baird, would succeed him without facing any serious intraparty opposition. However, while one unnamed source confidently predicted that the elder Baird was "definitely not going to end up running," the congressman proved this skeptic wrong by easily claiming—and then keeping—his party's nomination.
● NC-Gov, NC-AG, NC Supreme Court: North Carolina Democrats hold a huge financial advantage in the races for governor and attorney general, according to new campaign finance reports. The situation is different in the race for a crucial seat on the state Supreme Court, though, as Republican Jefferson Griffin finished June with a small cash edge over appointed Democratic Justice Allison Riggs.
We'll begin with the state's most prominent downballot contest: the race to succeed termed-out Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper. Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein outpaced his far-right rival, Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, $13.8 million to $5.1 million during the period of Feb. 18 to June 30. Stein likewise finished with a $15.9 million to $6.6 million cash advantage.
Over in the contest to replace Stein as attorney general, Democratic Rep. Jeff Jackson took in $4.2 million during this time―about three times as much as Republican colleague Dan Bishop's $1.4 million haul. Jackson ended June with $5.7 million in the bank, while Bishop, who is a notorious election denier, had $2.7 million available.
Riggs, for her part, outraised Griffin $650,000 to $464,000, but it was the Republican who ended last month with a $1.4 million to $1.1 million cash advantage. Democrats, as we've written before, need to hold this seat in November as part of a multicycle plan that represents their only realistic path toward rolling back the GOP's iron grip on state politics.
● NJ-Gov: Several powerful Democrats in populous Hudson County announced Tuesday that they would support Rep. Josh Gottheimer should he run to succeed termed-out Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy next year.
The New Jersey Globe's David Wildstein reports that this group includes County Executive Craig Guy, who is also the county party chair, and Union City Mayor Brian Stack, who is also a state senator. Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop, who leads the largest city in Hudson County, is running, and Wildstein writes that he and Stack have a contentious relationship.
● WA-Gov: SurveyUSA, polling on behalf of the Seattle Times, finds that Democratic Attorney General Bob Ferguson and former Republican Rep. Dave Reichert remain poised to advance past the Aug. 6 top-two primary for governor of Washington. Ferguson leads with 42%, while Reichert leads his fellow Republican, former Richland school board member Semi Bird, 33-7 for the second spot in the fall general election. Another 4% goes to Democratic state Sen. Mark Mullet.
This release did not include numbers testing Ferguson and Reichert in their likely general election battle to succeed Gov. Jay Inslee, a Democrat who is retiring after three terms as chief executive.
House
● FL-01: Florida Patriots PAC opens its new commercial against Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz by reminding primary voters of some of the most salacious allegations that have been leveled against the incumbent. "According to a witness, Congressman Matt Gaetz has sex with a 17-year-old girl" in 2017, the narrator says at the ad’s start.
The narrator then brings up former Seminole County Tax Collector Joel Greenberg, a onetime Gaetz friend who pleaded guilty to sex trafficking of a minor in 2021. "His 'wingman' Joel Greenberg later tells investigators that Gaetz had sex with the underage girl and knew she was getting paid."
After accusing the congressman of paying Greenberg to "'hit up' the same teenage girl," the narrator warns that "your daughters are never safe with the real Matt Gaetz." The congressman has denied the allegations.
Florida Patriots PAC, according to FEC reports, has spent $1.5 million so far to attack Gaetz or promote Navy veteran Aaron Dimmock, who is challenging him in the Aug. 20 primary for the 1st District. The group is funded entirely by America Fund, an organization that also financed the effort to deny renomination to Virginia Rep. Bob Good last month. (Good has requested a recount following his apparent loss against John McGuire.)
Gaetz, like Good, was one of the eight Republicans who voted to end Kevin McCarthy's speakership last year, and McCarthy is reportedly trying to unseat Gaetz as part of a "revenge tour." Gaetz, though, recently publicized an internal poll from Fabrizio, Lee & Associates that gave him a huge 67-20 advantage over Dimmock. No one, including the challenger, has released any contradictory data so far.
● MO-03: State Rep. Justin Hicks announced Tuesday that he was dropping out of the Aug. 6 Republican primary for Missouri's conservative 3rd District, a move he said he made to honor Donald Trump's decision to back former state Sen. Bob Onder. But Hicks, who did not mention or endorse Onder himself, was already struggling to raise money or pick up big-name support even before Trump made his preference clear.
Onder and former state Sen. Kurt Schaefer remain the front-runners to succeed retiring GOP Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer, who supports Schaefer.
Ad Roundup
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