• TN-05: Republican Rep. Andy Ogles is about to learn if the twin powers of incumbency and Donald Trump's endorsement are enough for the freshman to overcome a series of scandals and a well-funded opponent in Tennessee, which as always hosts America's only Thursday night primary.
Ogles' sole intraparty foe in the 5th District, which GOP map makers made safely red two years ago, is Courtney Johnston, who is a member of Nashville's Metro Council. Johnston has used her wide fundraising advantage to air commercials portraying the congressman as someone who "gets nothing done."
Johnston is also getting backup from a super PAC called Conservatives With Character, which has spent around $650,000 to aid her. The super PAC, treasurer Randy Stamps tells the Tennessee Lookout's Sam Stockard, originally focused on running positive ads for Johnston because "[h]er name ID wasn’t where it needed to be."
CWC, however, has since shifted its strategy to attack Ogles for claiming to be an economist―which is one of many apparent fabrications he's made to his life story. WTVF's Phil Williams reported in February of 2023 that Ogles also has presented himself as "a nationally recognized expert in tax policy and health care, a trained police officer, even an expert in international sex crimes'—none of which appears to be true." The congressman's team eventually claimed he'd simply "condensed" his life story "for the sake of brevity."
But while CWC displayed a picture of Ogles seated next to George Santos in one of its ads, it's largely focused on portraying the congressman as a tax hypocrite rather than a serial liar. That same spot accuses Ogles of backing a sales tax increase as mayor of Maury County while repeatedly failing to pay property taxes himself. It also displays footage of him proclaiming that the ideal tax "touches the greatest number of individuals," though it omits the part where Ogles called for the "smallest tax."
CWC and Johnston seem to have largely avoided highlighting the other bad headlines that Ogles has dealt with during his brief time in office. Williams, a prominent Tennessee investigative reporter whom comedian John Oliver nicknamed "Nashville's nosiest bitch," reported last year that Ogles raised close to $25,000 in 2014 for a children's burial garden that was never constructed.
The congressman in May drew more unwelcome attention after he dramatically amended his 2022 campaign finance reports to say he loaned his effort $20,000, rather than the $320,000 he'd previously claimed. Those inflated figures allowed Ogles to claim he had considerably more money available three weeks before the primary than the paltry $2,000 he now says he had on the bank, something that likely convinced outside group allies like the Club for Growth that he was in stronger shape than he actually was.
This time it's clear that Ogles is getting badly outspent going into the primary, but the congressman is hoping his powerful allies will once again help him prevail. Ogles is airing an ad featuring audio of Trump praising him as someone who "bravely stood up against the Biden administration's unconstitutional COVID mandates."
If that sounds like an odd argument for 2024, there's a good reason: The Tennessean notes that the recording comes from a tele-townhall Trump did for him in 2022. Ogles, however, is at least telling the truth when he says he has Trump's endorsement this year.
The incumbent is also getting some outside help, though according to the FEC's site, his allies have only spent about half as much as CWC has for Johnston. The biggest pro-Ogles group is Americans for Prosperity, the Koch affiliate that has often opposed Trump's endorsed candidates in this year's primaries. Ogles, however, served as AFP's state director in the years before the group became toxic in MAGA world after it backed Nikki Haley's unsuccessful campaign against Trump.
Ogles is the sole member of Tennessee's delegation who faces any serious primary opposition on Tuesday. While Rep. David Kustoff initially seemed to be in for a third expensive Republican primary battle against wealthy perennial candidate George Flinn, the state GOP ejected Flinn from the 8th District's ballot in April because he ran for the neighboring 9th District as an independent in 2022.
P.S. So why is Tennessee's primary on a Thursday? Nicholas Fandos investigated that recuring question for Politico in 2014 and found that, while this policy has been in place since the state's first constitution was drafted in 1796, no one knows why. "I can’t find any rationale for why Thursday was in there," Tennessee state librarian Charles Sherrill said a decade ago, and no one appears to have discovered any new information since then.
• TN State Legislature: The Tennessee Lookout's Adam Friedman reports that outside groups have now spent a total of $4.5 million across 16 Republican primaries, plus one Democratic contest, to support candidates who want to use taxpayer money to pay for private schools.
The bulk of this spending comes from School Freedom Fund, a Club for Growth affiliate funded by Jeff Yass, a Pennsylvania-based conservative megadonor who is an ardent charter schools advocate. However, WTVF's Phil Williams highlights how these ads don't concern vouchers at all and instead feature declarations like "[m]urderers and rapists should be in prison."
One recipient of this aid is Senate Education Committee chairman Jon Lundberg, who is trying to fend off a Donald Trump-backed rival with a well-known last name in East Tennessee. That challenger is Bobby Harshbarger, whose mother, Diana Harshbarger, represents the 1st Congressional District. The congresswoman, who faces no primary opposition on Thursday, has been sending out mailers that feature a photo of the two candidates with other family members and a caption that simply declares "Harshbarger endorsed by President Trump."
Trump, who is not known for his intense interest in Volunteer State politics, himself wrote on Truth Social in mid-July, "Bobby’s mother is the GREAT Congresswoman from Tennessee, Diana Harshbarger. He and his family are fierce advocates for our Movement to Make America Great Again and, therefore, Bobby Harshbarger has my Complete and Total Endorsement." Gov. Bill Lee, however, remains in Lundberg's corner.
Note that, unlike in most Southern states, it only takes a simple plurality to win a party primary in Tennessee.
