The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.
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Leading Off
● TN-05: Republican Rep. Andy Ogles is about to learn if the twin powers of incumbency and Donald Trump's endorsement are enough for the freshman to overcome a series of scandals and a well-funded opponent in Tennessee, which as always hosts America's only Thursday night primary.
Ogles' sole intraparty foe in the 5th District, which GOP map makers made safely red two years ago, is Courtney Johnston, who is a member of Nashville's Metro Council. Johnston has used her wide fundraising advantage to air commercials portraying the congressman as someone who "gets nothing done."
Johnston is also getting backup from a super PAC called Conservatives With Character, which has spent around $650,000 to aid her. The super PAC, treasurer Randy Stamps tells the Tennessee Lookout's Sam Stockard, originally focused on running positive ads for Johnston because "[h]er name ID wasn’t where it needed to be."
CWC, however, has since shifted its strategy to attack Ogles for claiming to be an economist―which is one of many apparent fabrications he's made to his life story. WTVF's Phil Williams reported in February of 2023 that Ogles also has presented himself as "a nationally recognized expert in tax policy and health care, a trained police officer, even an expert in international sex crimes'—none of which appears to be true." The congressman's team eventually claimed he'd simply "condensed" his life story "for the sake of brevity."
But while CWC displayed a picture of Ogles seated next to George Santos in one of its ads, it's largely focused on portraying the congressman as a tax hypocrite rather than a serial liar. That same spot accuses Ogles of backing a sales tax increase as mayor of Maury County while repeatedly failing to pay property taxes himself. It also displays footage of him proclaiming that the ideal tax "touches the greatest number of individuals," though it omits the part where Ogles called for the "smallest tax."
CWC and Johnston seem to have largely avoided highlighting the other bad headlines that Ogles has dealt with during his brief time in office. Williams, a prominent Tennessee investigative reporter whom comedian John Oliver nicknamed "Nashville's nosiest bitch," reported last year that Ogles raised close to $25,000 in 2014 for a children's burial garden that was never constructed.
The congressman in May drew more unwelcome attention after he dramatically amended his 2022 campaign finance reports to say he loaned his effort $20,000, rather than the $320,000 he'd previously claimed. Those inflated figures allowed Ogles to claim he had considerably more money available three weeks before the primary than the paltry $2,000 he now says he had on the bank, something that likely convinced outside group allies like the Club for Growth that he was in stronger shape than he actually was.
This time it's clear that Ogles is getting badly outspent going into the primary, but the congressman is hoping his powerful allies will once again help him prevail. Ogles is airing an ad featuring audio of Trump praising him as someone who "bravely stood up against the Biden administration's unconstitutional COVID mandates."
If that sounds like an odd argument for 2024, there's a good reason: The Tennessean notes that the recording comes from a tele-townhall Trump did for him in 2022. Ogles, however, is at least telling the truth when he says he has Trump's endorsement this year.
The incumbent is also getting some outside help, though according to the FEC's site, his allies have only spent about half as much as CWC has for Johnston. The biggest pro-Ogles group is Americans for Prosperity, the Koch affiliate that has often opposed Trump's endorsed candidates in this year's primaries. Ogles, however, served as AFP's state director in the years before the group became toxic in MAGA world after it backed Nikki Haley's unsuccessful campaign against Trump.
Ogles is the sole member of Tennessee's delegation who faces any serious primary opposition on Tuesday. While Rep. David Kustoff initially seemed to be in for a third expensive Republican primary battle against wealthy perennial candidate George Flinn, the state GOP ejected Flinn from the 8th District's ballot in April because he ran for the neighboring 9th District as an independent in 2022.
P.S. So why is Tennessee's primary on a Thursday? Nicholas Fandos investigated that recuring question for Politico in 2014 and found that, while this policy has been in place since the state's first constitution was drafted in 1796, no one knows why. "I can’t find any rationale for why Thursday was in there," Tennessee state librarian Charles Sherrill said a decade ago, and no one appears to have discovered any new information since then.
The Downballot
● Primary season is back with a vengeance! Daily Kos Elections editor Jeff Singer joins co-hosts David Nir and David Beard on this week's episode of "The Downballot" to recap Tuesday's action and preview a whole host of major races in the month ahead.
The trio discusses why Democrats are upbeat about their chances to take charge of Arizona's largest county after this week's primaries—and what it could mean if the MAGA brigades instead seize control of election administration. Also on the docket: under-the-radar GOP ballot measures in Wisconsin designed to strip the Democratic governor of key powers; Republicans in Alaska struggling to adapt to the reality of ranked-choice voting; and a chance for Florida Democrats to stick their thumb in Ron DeSantis' eye.
Never miss an episode! Subscribe to "The Downballot" wherever you listen to podcasts. New episodes every Thursday morning!
Election Night
● TN State Legislature: The Tennessee Lookout's Adam Friedman reports that outside groups have now spent a total of $4.5 million across 16 Republican primaries, plus one Democratic contest, to support candidates who want to use taxpayer money to pay for private schools.
The bulk of this spending comes from School Freedom Fund, a Club for Growth affiliate funded by Jeff Yass, a Pennsylvania-based conservative megadonor who is an ardent charter schools advocate. However, WTVF's Phil Williams highlights how these ads don't concern vouchers at all and instead feature declarations like "[m]urderers and rapists should be in prison."
One recipient of this aid is Senate Education Committee chairman Jon Lundberg, who is trying to fend off a Donald Trump-backed rival with a well-known last name in East Tennessee. That challenger is Bobby Harshbarger, whose mother, Diana Harshbarger, represents the 1st Congressional District. The congresswoman, who faces no primary opposition on Thursday, has been sending out mailers that feature a photo of the two candidates with other family members and a caption that simply declares "Harshbarger endorsed by President Trump."
Trump, who is not known for his intense interest in Volunteer State politics, himself wrote on Truth Social in mid-July, "Bobby’s mother is the GREAT Congresswoman from Tennessee, Diana Harshbarger. He and his family are fierce advocates for our Movement to Make America Great Again and, therefore, Bobby Harshbarger has my Complete and Total Endorsement." Gov. Bill Lee, however, remains in Lundberg's corner.
Note that, unlike in most Southern states, it only takes a simple plurality to win a party primary in Tennessee.
Governors
● DE-Gov: Primary School relays that a mid-July survey from Public Policy Polling for the Democratic Lieutenant Governors Association finds the DLGA's favored candidate, Lt. Gov. Bethany Hall-Long, leading 31-19 against New Castle County Executive Matt Meyer in the Sept. 10 Democratic primary, with another 9% going to National Wildlife Federation leader Collin O'Mara.
However, PPP's poll was in the field July 16-17, which was before state election officials released a report last week that concluded Hall-Long's campaign had violated state campaign finance law. That investigation found that Hall-Long had failed to disclose nearly $300,000 in payments over several years to her husband, campaign treasurer Dana Long, to reimburse what the couple called personal loans, which fell short of the payment amounts by $33,000.
No one has released a poll here since that report came out on July 25, and the only other survey from in months was a Slingshot Strategies poll from early July that found the lieutenant governor tied 27-27 with Meyer while O'Mara took 7%. That poll was conducted on behalf of Citizens for a New Delaware Way, a PAC that recently began airing ads attacking Hall-Long over her campaign finances.
● NC-Gov: Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein has launched a new TV ad that attacks Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson for running a childcare center that state officials cited for numerous health and safety violations between 2005 and 2007, which endangered toddlers and infants.
The narrator declares that state inspectors found that the center, Precious Beginnings, was unsanitary, lacked proper adult supervision, contained hazards such as "uncovered electrical outlets," and sometimes operated "without lights, heat, or running water." The commercial says that other violations included "falsified staff credentials and no background checks."
Robinson his wife, Yolanda Hill, ran the center from 2000 to 2007 before selling it and later forming Balanced Nutrition, the family's nonprofit organization that aided other childcare centers with obtaining federal funding for food. That nonprofit itself was more recently at the center of a separate state investigation.
Just last week, state officials ordered Balanced Nutrition to repay $132,000 in federal funding over an extensive lack of documentation, potentially fraudulent claims for payment, and excessive administrative costs. Hill, whose salary at Balanced Nutrition nearly doubled from $71,000 in 2019 to $140,000 in 2023, shut down the nonprofit this spring after officials began their investigation.
Robinson's campaign responded to Stein's ad about Precious Beginnings by downplaying the accusations as "old news" and accusing his detractors of "cherry-picking a few minor violations and clerical errors to grind a political ax while ignoring visits that include ‘superior’ ratings."
House
● AZ-08: The Associated Press has called Tuesday's Republican primary for attorney Abe Hamadeh, who leads venture capitalist Blake Masters 30-25 with an estimated 86% of the vote in. While the two 2022 ticket mates waged a truly ugly battle against one another, Hamadeh should have little trouble succeeding outgoing Rep. Debbie Lesko in a constituency that Donald Trump carried 56-43 four years ago.
● OH-09: A new Noble Predictive Insights poll sponsored by Inside Elections shows longtime Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur ahead 47-37 against Republican state Rep. Derek Merrin in the 9th District, which is based in the Toledo area and northwestern Ohio. This is the first poll that anyone has released this cycle for this contest, where major outside groups from both parties have reserved several million dollars for TV ads.
Donald Trump won this constituency 51-48 four years ago, but the survey finds him tied 46-46 with Kamala Harris in a two-way matchup and 44-44 with third parties included. Additionally, NPI shows Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown leading Republican challenger Bernie Moreno 49-36 in the 9th District. Brown, according to VEST data on Dave's Redistricting App, carried the current version of the 9th District 56-44 in 2018 as he was winning statewide by a smaller 53-47 spread.
● WI-03: SEIU Wisconsin has endorsed businesswoman Rebecca Cooke for the Democratic nomination to take on GOP Rep. Derrick Van Orden. Cooke faces state Rep. Katrina Shankland, who previously earned the state AFL-CIO's backing, in the Aug. 13 primary.
Ballot Measures
● Los Angeles County, CA Ballot: The Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors on Tuesday voted 3-2 to officially place a charter amendment on the fall ballot that, among other things, would create an elected county executive post and expand the Board of Supervisors from five members to nine. We recently took a look at this plan, and how it could lead to the formation of one of the most impactful elected positions in the country.
Mayors & County Leaders
● Maricopa County, AZ Board of Supervisors: The Associated Press projects that Republican Supervisor Tom Galvin has defeated his far-right primary challenger, former state Sen. Michelle Ugenti-Rita. Galvin leads Ugenti-Rita 57-43 with an estimated 86% reporting. Donald Trump carried the 2nd District 53-46 in 2020.
Grab Bag
● Where Are They Now?: Joe Biden has nominated former Rep. Anthony Brindisi to serve on a federal district court in northern New York. Brindisi represented the old 22nd District in the Utica and Binghamton areas for one term after narrowly ousting Republican Rep. Claudia Tenney in 2018, but Tenney defeated him in their 2020 rematch by a tiny 109-vote margin as Trump carried the conservative district by a much wider 55-43 that year.
Brindisi in 2021 campaigned for a seat on New York State Supreme Court (which, despite its name, is not the Empire State's highest court) but badly lost in a tough year for his party. Gov. Kathy Hochul, however, named him to the New York State Court of Claims in 2022.
Poll Pile
- MN-Sen: SurveyUSA for KSTP, KAAL, and WIOP: Amy Klobuchar (D-inc): 55, Royce West (R): 33; Klobuchar (D-inc): 54, Joe Fraser (R): 33 (50-40 Harris in two-way)
Ad Roundup
Campaign Action
