Republican Speaker of the House Mike Johnson is facing a revolt from inside his own party. Again.
This time, the subject of the uprising is a continuing resolution aimed at extending government funding past the end of September. While Republicans are always gleeful about holding a gun to the government’s head, bringing services to a halt just one month before the election seems to many like a bad idea. Even so, House Republicans thought this would be a great time to engage in a big political stunt by slipping into the funding legislation a poison pill aimed at addressing the nonexistent threat of noncitizen voting.
Now Johnson finds himself in a trap. A group of the most obstinate Republicans are trying to use this opportunity to force Johnson into cutting government funding. He can’t get his own party to go along with his leadership, and he can’t go begging to Democrats because the proof-of-citizenship stunt makes this legislation untouchable.
Somewhere, ousted Speaker Kevin McCarthy is smiling.
While Fox News presents the revolt as coming from House conservatives, those who have said they would vote against the bill range from extremists in the House Freedom Caucus to more moderate Republicans who have voted with Johnson in the past.
Johnson’s plans began falling apart almost the moment the House returned from its August recess. The Republican speaker had proposed a six-month extension of government funding. To get the support of hard-liners in his party, Johnson decorated the legislation with proof-of-citizenship requirements. The plan was endorsed by Donald Trump.
But even though the scheme had Trump’s blessing, Republicans began to splinter away by insisting that Johnson go for a longer period of funding. The reason isn’t that these Republicans have a concern over six months being too short. It’s because earlier legislation included a requirement that any funding period longer than six months would automatically trigger a cut in government funding.
However, there are already House members who have made it clear that they don’t want this because, among other things, it would represent a cut to the military. So giving in on this point would gain Johnson some votes but cost him others.
By Monday, at least five Republicans had now come out against the six-month resolution. Given Republicans’ majority in the House, that’s more than Johnson can afford to lose. Five House Democrats earlier voted to require proof of citizenship when voting as part of the SAVE Act. But it seems unlikely any of those Democrats would step forward to save Johnson now, not when Republicans have put themselves in such an effective trap.
However, things got worse on Tuesday. Johnson said he was sticking to this plan (six-month funding, poison pill included), even though the number of Republicans in opposition has now grown to at least six.
As Punchbowl News reports, “Every move Johnson makes to pick up votes in one place loses him votes somewhere else.”
Democrats have bailed out Johnson when his fractious caucus threatened to disrupt vital government functions. But in putting a poison pill in the funding legislation, Johnson may have made that impossible. Democratic leadership in the House is whipping against the bill as Johnson’s brilliant idea to unite his party turns out to be another story of Republicans in disarray.
Even if by some miracle Johnson managed to get the bill out of the House, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has made it clear the resolution won’t stand a chance in his chamber. Still, that could give Republicans the chance to avoid taking the full blame for going into Election Day with a government shutdown. President Joe Biden has already said he would veto the measure if it comes to his desk (it won’t).
But the growing revolt among Republicans leaves Johnson searching for votes in the House. If he expects those votes to come from Democrats, it will mean removing the proof-of-citizenship requirements. However, another group of Republicans expressed that they are voting for the continuing resolution only because they want those requirements.
So if Johnson were to cut this portion of the legislation, it would make him even more dependent on Democrats to get the funding passed.
Add to this a high rate of absenteeism as legislators sneak away to campaign back home—and with more missing Republicans than Democrats—and Johnson’s real margin to get something passed may be only two votes. Or less.
If Johnson wants to keep from being the proud owner of a highly visible shutdown—like Trump is gunning for—he’s going to either have to find new skills of persuasion or come up with a bill that doesn’t make it an automatic no for Democrats.