Welcome to week 3 of my tracking of polls and pundits — so you don’t have to do it all yourself!
This week I start tracking polling averages in the key battleground states, as well as the overall electoral counts from the various election sites. Next week, I’ll start doing the same for the key Senate races. Also, we start looking a little more closely at the methodologies of each site, some now and some next week. Now for today’s snapshot:
Electoral-vote.com (E-V): Harris 277, Trump 261, ties 0 (slight movement towards Trump). Weakest D states are PA, NC and NV at 1 or 2-point leads; weakest R states are MI, GA, and AZ. Electoral-vote has one of the simplest methodologies. For each state, this site uses the most recent poll along with any others taken within a week of it, then averages them if there is more than one for the state.
538: Harris 289, Trump 249 (slight movement towards Harris). Tossup states are PA, NC, GA, AZ and NV (these are states where neither candidate has reached a 60% chance of winning; Harris has now done so in WI and MI). 538 is not a polling aggregator (though they do provide a polls-only average of national presidential polls). Instead, as stated on their site, “538’s forecast is based on a combination of polls and campaign “fundamentals,” such as economic conditions, state partisanship and incumbency. It’s not meant to “call” a winner, but rather to give you a sense of how likely each candidate is to win.” So Electoral-vote is giving you a true average of recent polls only; 538 is attempting to forecast odds of winning on election day, with current polling as just one of the predictive variables.
The Economist: Harris 271, Trump 267 (very slight movement towards Harris). Key states are WI, MI, PA, NC, GA, AZ, and NV, the same group that numerous other sites all have as tossups. The Economist’s approach is like 538’s; national and state-level polls are combined with “fundamental data about the state of the economy, historical voting patterns and the demographics of each state” to produce a forecast.
Princeton Election Consortium (PEC): Median of 268 electoral votes for Harris (very slight Harris shift).
270towin.com (270): Harris 226, Trump 219, tossups 93 (tossups are WI, MI, PA, NC, GA, AZ, and NV). No change from last week. This is the 270towin “consensus” map, which draws from projections by multiple other sites. For state polling averages, 270’s methodology is similar to E-V’s: all polls within 7 days of the most recent are averaged, with no more than one poll from any one source.
Sabato's Crystal Ball: No update to state ratings — still Harris 226, Trump 219, tossups 93 (tossups are WI, MI, PA, NC, GA, AZ, and NV).
Cook Political Report: No update here either — Harris 226, Trump 219, same toss-ups.
InsideElections.com: No update here either — Harris 226, Trump 219, same toss-ups.
CNN: Also no change — Harris 225, Trump 219, tossups 93 (the same).
Real Clear Politics (RCP): Harris 221, Trump 219, (slight movement towards Harris), 8 tossups (WI, MI, NH, PA, NC, GA, AZ, and NV — VA moved from tossup to leans Harris). The GOP-leaning RCP site’s “no tossups” map also shows a slight shift towards Harris (Harris 276, Trump 262).
State averages/forecasts:
| State |
E-V |
538 |
270 |
RCP |
|
| WI |
D +3 |
D +3 |
D +2.8 |
D +1.2 |
|
| MI |
R +1 |
D +2.2 |
D +1.2 |
D +0.7 |
|
| PA |
D +2 |
D +1.1 |
D +0.8 |
D +0.1 |
|
| NC |
D +2 |
D +0.1 |
D +0.2 |
R +0.1 |
|
| GA |
R +2 |
D +0.2 |
R +1.3 |
R +0.3 |
|
| FL |
R +4 |
R +3.6 |
R +4.2 |
R +6.0 |
|
| AZ |
R +1 |
D +0.1 |
R +2.0 |
R +1.3 |
|
| NV |
D +1 |
D +1.1 |
D +0.4 |
D +0.9 |
|
The Senate:
There is movement here, but unfortunately in a bad direction, with some sites shifting the MT race from tossup to tilts or leans R. This leaves D’s with anywhere from 47 to 49 seats, except according to the always right-leaning RCP averages.
Electoral-vote.com: No change from last week — D 49, R 51, with GOP pickups in MT and NV.
Princeton Election Consortium: Also no change — D 49, R 51, with the same two GOP pickups.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball: No update — D 48, R 51, 1 tossup (OH).
Cook Political Report: D 47, R 51 (pickups in MT and WV), 3 tossups (MI, OH).
Inside Elections: D 48, R 50 (pickups in MT and WV), 1 tossup (OH).
RCP: True to their GOP lean, D 44, R 50 (pickups in MT and WV), and 6 tossups (MI, OH, PA, MD, FL, and AZ).
