Here's what Nate Cohn says
.
.
It’s still too soon to judge the fallout from the presidential debate, but the polls suggest that Kamala Harris might be poised to gain. The initial surveys of people who watched the debate found that most viewers thought she beat Donald Trump, and candidates deemed the winner in post-debate surveys usually tend to gain in the polls.
.
.
We have the fact that the highly respected Des Moines Register poll shows Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris by only four points when he led President Biden by 18 points earlier in the state.
.
.
Vice President Kamala Harris has made up significant ground on former President Trump in Iowa, a state previously thought to be safely in the former president’s column.
Harris has narrowed Trump’s lead to four points, trailing the former president 47% to 43% in Iowa, according to the latest Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll released Sunday.
The poll represents a shocking reversal from where Trump stood in the state in spring, when the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll showed Trump leading President Biden by 18 points in Iowa, 50% to 32%.
.
.
Vice President Kamala Harris has had similar success in cutting Donald Trump's expected lead in Alaska to give percentage points, a state solidly red for six decades
.
.
New polling conducted by Alaska Survey Research from September 11 to 12, after the ABC News debate between Harris and Trump, showed the Democrat down by 5 points with likely voters in the northwestern state. Harris had the support of 42 percent of respondents, whereas Trump had the backing of 47 percent.
.
.
Here are the most recent polls listed on 538, none more recent than the 13th of September
.
.
Data for Progress has Vice President Harris leading by 4, 50% to 46%, among 1,283 likely voters
You Gov has Vice President Harris up 49% to 45% among 1,090 likely voters with third party candidates
You Gov has Vice President Harris leading 48% to 44% among 1,175 registered voters with third party candidates
You Gov has Vice President Harris 50% to 46% among 1,090 likely voters without third party candidates
You Gov has Vice President Harris leading 50% to 45% among 1,175 registered voters
TIPP has Vice President Harris leading 45% to 41% among 1,721 registered voters with third party candidates
TIPP sees Vice President Harris leading 47% to 43% among 1,721 registered voters without third party candidates
IPSOS calls Vice President Harris leading 51% to 46% among 2,196 likely voters with third party candidates
IPSOS sees Vice President Harris ahead of Donald Trump 50% to 46% among 2,772 registered voters with third party candidates
IPSOS has Vice President Harris ahead of Donald Trump 51% to 45% among 3,276 adults with third party candidates
IPSOS sees Vice President Harris ahead of Donald Trump 52% to 46% among 2,196 likely voters without third party candidates
IPSOS has Vice President Harris leading 51% to 47% for Donald Trump among 2,772 registered voters without third party candidates
IPSOS finds Vice President Harris ahead of Donald Trump 51% to 46% among 3,276 adults without third party candidates
Redfield & Wilton Strategies sees Vice President Harris ahead of Donald Trump 44% to 42% among 1,952 likely voters
IPSOS finds Vice President Harris leading Donald Trump 43% to 39% among 1,690 adults without third party candidates
IPSOS has Vice President Harris leading 47% to 42% among 1,405 registered voters without third party candidates
Atlas Intel lies with Donald Trump 51% to Vice President Harris at 47% among 1,775 likely voters
Atlas Intel lies again with Donald Trump at 51% to Vice President Harris at 48% among 1,775 registered voters without third party candidates
RMG Research has Vice President Harris at 51% to 47% for Donald Trump among 2,756 likely voters without third party candidates
Morning Consult sees Vice President Harris 50% to 45% for Donald Trump among 3,317 likely voters without third party candidates
.
.
Vice President Harris raised $47 million in the 24 hours after the debate
.
.
New York Times reports how the debate may widen the disparity in how well the two candidates campaigns raise funds
.
.
Debate May Widen the Money Gap Between Harris and Trump
Large donors to former President Donald J. Trump’s campaign expressed concern after his performance. The Democrats raised big money in the hours after the debate.
.
.
Vice President Harris' campaign raised $361 million in September, more than three times the amount raised by the Trump campaign
.
.
Vice President Harris' entrance into this election lit a fuse and attracted a large number of new volunteers
.
.
Over 170,000 volunteers have also signed up to help the Harris campaign with phone banking, canvassing and other get-out-the-vote efforts. Election Day is 100 days away.
"The momentum and energy for Vice President Harris is real — and so are the fundamentals of this race: this election will be very close and decided by a small number of voters in just a few states," Michael Tyler, the campaign's communications director, wrote in a memo.
.
.
Vice President Harris has a much more muscular ground game than Donald Trump
.
.
Trump has scant voter turnout operation in swing states, GOP worries
Republican officials see Trump’s campaign as comparable in size to a midterm election rather than a presidential
Republican officials are raising the alarm that Donald Trump’s campaign has invested far fewer resources for its voter turnout operation in battleground states than previous presidential election races, and attempts to bridge the gap with political action committees have come too late.
The Republican National Committee (RNC) once envisioned an extensive field operation for the 2024 election, including having about 90 staffers in the must-win state of Pennsylvania.
In response to reporting for this story, the Trump campaign said their field operation is larger than the RNC’s in 2022, which had 350 staffers in battleground states and 50 in Pennsylvania, according to RNC midterms data obtained by the Guardian.
Still, the Trump campaign appears to be dwarfed by the Harris operation, which is understood to have roughly 375 staffers in Pennsylvania alone, after Democrats spent years building up its voter turnout efforts in the state that could decide the election.
.
.
Donald Trump is relying upon a risky strategy, outsourcing work normally performed by volunteers
.
.
Then there are the voter registration numbers which aren't showing up in the polls, but who are very likely to vote since that's the only reason that they would register to vote.
.
.
I STRONGLY RECOMMEND you visit this site because polls alone are not going to give you as comprehensive an understanding of where the election is. This website tracks new voter registration.
.
.
- In the week after Vice President Harris became the presumptive nominee, new registrants were 22 points in favor of Democrats. During that same week in 2020, new registrants were 3 points in favor of Republicans.
- Since VP Harris became the presumptive nominee, women are accounting for nearly 55% of all new registrants.
- In Texas, the week after Harris became the presumptive nominee, new registrants were +10 Democratic, compared to +16 Republican during the same week in 2020.
- Overall, its young Black women leading the voter registration surge post Harris ascension to the top of the ticket. Registration among this voting bloc has nearly tripled relative to the same point in 2020
.
.
This trend of increased voter registration was seen early on
.
.
Ever since Vice President Kamala Harris entered the presidential campaign three weeks ago, polls and campaign finance data have shown how the race has changed. She has come from behind to build a small lead over former President Donald J. Trump in national polls and in several swing states, and she raised far more money than he did last month.
Now, new voter registration data in two swing states adds to the evidence that Ms. Harris’s candidacy has energized potential Democratic voters.
.
.
Taylor Swift's endorsement led 338,000 to use a government voter registration Website
.
.
- Taylor Swift’s endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris on Instagram drove at least 337,826 visitors to Vote.gov, a government website that directs users to state-specific voting information.
- Swift released her endorsement minutes after the conclusion of the debate between Harris and Donald Trump.
- Swift’s presidential endorsement has already earned her the ire of Trump and his campaign
.
.
Most endorsements may help draw interest from some people who weren't invested in a campaign before and convince their followers to give the candidate a hearing, but there are doubts about how much impact on the election they actually make. With Taylor Swift, we may be looking at one of the most significant endorsements ever, especially in this context. You can see that Donald Trump recognizes how much of a threat she is to his campaign because he said, "I hate Taylor Swift!"
.
.
Vice President Harris leads in enthusiasm among voters
.
.
Harris Voters’ Enthusiasm Surges Past Trump’s In Major Polling Turnaround—Here’s Why That Matters
Vice President Kamala Harris heads into the final stretch of the 2024 presidential campaign boosted by a surge in enthusiasm among Democrats, a massive turnaround after former President Donald Trump had an edge just months ago, polls show—momentum that could attract voters who would have otherwise sat out the election or reluctantly voted for Trump.
.
.
.
.
Now, we have to keep in mind that we have this asymmetry problem, but Vice President Kamala Harris has mostly resolved it. There are some 53% percent plus of voters who will not vote for Donald Trump for president. So, he has a well-understood low ceiling. On the other hand, he has an inelastic floor meaning that there is virtually nothing that he could do or his opponent could do to stop them from voting for Donald Trump. We have a larger potential universe of voters whom we can attract, but often the difference makers, those who determine whether we win or lose, are uninformed, making voting decisions for superficial or selfish reasons, and are unreliable. Thankfully, Vice President Harris is a brilliant, strong charismatic and talented Democratic Party nominee for president and so she is able to attract these voters who can make the difference.
.
.
When we take a comprehensive look at this election, we consider voter enthusiasm and voter registration data and her far superior voter turnout ground operation and her massive amount of volunteers and her enormous fundraising advantage and her decisive debate victory and how she has narrowed what should have been large leads in red states, then we put that with the polls and she probably has about a five percentage point lead now.
.
.
