Say what you will about 538 but I enjoy the stats discussion and number crunching that they do. From my (cheap) seats it’s just another data point in a complex puzzle and I drop by most days during election season to check on trends, see what’s new, etc.
I’m fully aware of the (sometimes well deserved) criticism they receive around here and I’m in no way advocating for them as the ‘best’ or ‘true’ source of polling information. They didn’t predict Clinton in a landslide despite what seems to be conventional wisdom and I find their arguments less annoying than Lichtman based ones out there. Your mileage may vary.
Anyhow, I was well and truly surprised to see them state today that the margin between Harris and trump is smaller in Florida than it is in Wisconsin: 3.1 vs 3.4 .
I believe Florida (and Texas for that matter) aren’t turning blue this cycle no matter what happens. But given that less than a week ago Kos himself noted that Florida was creeping into the discussion I find it amazing to see that Wisconsin is polling so strong (at least as of right now) for Harris that it’s been displaced (also, at least for now) in the top 7 of close races.
LFG
