A forecasting model developed by Northwestern Professor Thomas Miller shows seismic shift since the debate. The model Harris with a small lead of 288 to 250 prior to the debate. His model is not based on polling, but rather data from the Investor Prediction Markets, specifically PredictIt. You can get daily updates at virtualtout.com
From the university website:
Called “The Virtual Tout,” Miller’s system uses data from PredictIt, a prediction market where users bet real money on political races. Miller then uses that data to simulate one million hypothetical elections per hour to find the average outcome. By looking at each state as its own “market,” Miller can predict not just the popular vote but how the Electoral College will vote.
From The Virtual Tout (link above) where the website updated daily, he states the following:
Political polls are snapshots of the recent past. Polls have limited predictive power when conducted many days before an election.
and
Prediction markets, on the other hand, are forward-looking. Investors anticipate with will happen on election day and place their bets accordingly. Just as the stock market is a leading indicator of what will happen with the economy, a political prediction market is a leading indicator of what will happen with an election.”
So, does it work? In the last election his model got all states other that Georgia correctly and we all know how close that one was.
Anyway, it is nice to see a landslide predicted rather than a tight race. Posting this for amusement purposes only. We still have work to do to make sure it happens. As my statistics professor said almost daily back in the 70s, “Conclusions hold with certainty only to some degree of probability.”
More Details at Data scientist who correctly predicted 2020 election now betting on 'landslide' Harris win
