Bill McKibben raises this question, and goes beyond the obvious concern that those of us who are seniors (I am 78) have for Social Security and Medicare. In this Rolling Stone piece he points out some interesting factoids from recent polling data, as you can see in this paragraph:
Consider, for instance, the Fairleigh Dickinson poll last week that found the biggest lead yet for Kamala Harris — a seven point national edge that came largely from her 16-point lead among people over the age of 65. On Thursday, a Suffolk University poll for USA Today found Harris leading Trump 53-42 among voters over 60 — her largest vote share of any demographic. And it’s the same in many of the swing states: A New York Times/Siena College poll showed her with a modest lead among older voters in Arizona — and there are a lot of older voters in Arizona. In North Carolina, another swing state crowded with retirees, she’s up by 10 points among older voters. In Maine, statistically the oldest state in the union, Harris led by 20 points among older voters. In Vermont, the second-oldest state, 61 percent of older voters thought Trump’s mental and physical health were “very poor,” higher than any other group. (Which is worth thinking about — if anyone’s an expert on gauging decline, it’s those of us who see it around us regularly, and perhaps sense it in ourselves).
He recognizes that there is other polling that is not SO rosy, but still undercuts the notion that Seniors as a whole are conservative — even good polls recently showing Trump with leads among seniors show those leads as minimal:
There are enough polls out there that you can find the opposite too — the last Washington Post poll, now almost two weeks old, shows Trump beating Harris by two points among older voters, and a Pell Center poll had him up by 3. But I think it’s safe to say Trump shouldn’t count on older voters.
Let me quote just one more paragraph from this piece, even as I urge you to read it in its entirety:
To the extent that we are “conservative,” clean air and reproductive rights are among the things we want to conserve. Older voters are second only to the youngest cohort in their share of “climate voters,” in part because we’ve lived long enough to know how drastically the climate has changed. Eighty-six percent of older Americans think abortion should be legal at least under certain circumstances — in part because we’re old enough to remember coathangers. As for democracy — well, January 6 may have hit us particularly hard, because we’ve lived through 15 or 20 elections, and had come to take the peaceful transfer of power entirely for granted.
I have felt for some time that this election is different enough that polls were not completely picking up what is happening. We do know that polling in 2022 did NOT pick up the margins the three statewide women (Gov. Whitmer, AG Nessel, and SecState Benson) would win by, and were totally wrong on the Kansas abortion referendum which they predicted would lose but which won by around 20 points. There is ample evidence in special elections since that Democratic candidates are outperforming both the polls and Biden’s performance. And polling certainly has not been reflecting the recent performances in registrations since Biden withdrew, which is seeing explosions in new registrations for demographics that tend to favor Dems, about which others have written here.
What is also interesting is to look inside the recent ABC /Ipsos poll done by Langer which showed a 6% margin, 52-46, for Harris among LIKELY voters in a poll with a 2% margin of error. Here are a few takeaways from those internals that I noted for a presentation I have to do tomorrow to a current events group at the PA CCRC at which I now reside (and these are from my notes):
Favorability ratings in the latest ABC poll
Kamala Harris (+3%) 46% favorable 43% unfavorable
Tim Walz (+11%) 42% favorable 31% unfavorable
Donald Trump (-25%) 33% favorable 58% unfavorable
JD Vance (-12%) 32% favorable 44% unfavorable
8/27/24 – Summary table
More to More to Does not apply
Harris Trump to either Skip
a. Is honest and trustworthy 43 25 30 1
b. Has the mental sharpness it takes
to serve effectively as president 47 37 15 1
c. Is in good enough physical health
to serve effectively as president 57 25 16 2
d. Represents your personal values 41 34 23 1
e. Understands the problems of
people like you 41 33 24 1
(Names rotated. Items a-e randomized)
Trend:
a. Is honest and trustworthy
More to Harris More to Trump Does not apply to either Skip
8/27/24 43 25 30 1
8/13/24 41 26 32 1
b. Has the mental sharpness it takes to serve effectively as president
More to Harris More to Trump Does not apply to either Skip
8/27/24 47 37 15 1
8/13/24 46 37 15 2
McKibben notes that early to mid Baby Boomers are a product of childhood under Eisenhower and for most of us adolescence in the 60s, which also may explain some of our reactions to Trump.
I suspect that a variety of issues for those of us NOT threatened by changes in society starting with the 60s and even recently makes us MORE sensitive to threats posed by Trump, not merely to social insurance programs, but to the possibility of rolling back even more rights since Dobbs,and regardless of where we were on Vietnam and conflicts since to the disrespect to Veterans and especially his disrespect to the tradition of Arlington (where I lived from 1982 until the beginning of July) to be beyond partisan politics. As a choir director in an Orthodox Church I did several burials at Arlington National Cemetery and separately I attended the burial of a WWII veteran who was the father of a close friend, the then Treasurer of Arlington County. I remember that my one-term Senator Jim Webb, a highly decorated Marine, would not allow press to even accompany him on his visits to the Cemetery, and he would be visiting graves of Marines with whom he had served, some of whom had died under his command.
I think we are seeing many indications of how different this election is shaping up to be. It is not yet done — with almost two months to go, there are many things that could happen in the world that could scramble things. But I increasingly believe this election will not be that close, despite how the media is portraying it, and despite the headlines, coverage, and in the case of Trump the lack of calling him to account, may make it appear.
If there is anything even approaching a “Silver Wave” there is no path forward for Trump.
Make of this what you will.
Peace.
