Netanyahu has lost the war in Gaza. He has failed to accomplish any of his stated goals - except the goal of staying out of jail. Under his ‘governance,’ Israeli society has been ripped apart. Israeli security services have become a shadow of their former self, resulting in the catastrophic security failure on October 7th. Many of Israel’s best and brightest are leaving the country, the economy is in tatters, and as long as Netanyahu and his terrorist thugs are in the driver's seat, things will continue to get worse.
It Is Not Hamas That Is Collapsing, but Israel
"Some argue that withdrawing army forces from Gaza after signing a hostage deal with Hamas would be the same as being defeated and surrendering... This claim is grounded in a fundamental misunderstanding of what is taking place in the Gaza Strip. It is fueled by clichés spread by the political and military echelons to justify their actions and gain public support and legitimacy to continue a failed war... it is those very same people declaring that a cessation of hostilities means our defeat and surrender who are bringing the military closer to collapse and the state to its downfall,"
"In other words, the day will come when the IDF will no longer be able to remain in the Gaza Strip because Hamas will be in full control of it – both in the underground tunnel city that stretches hundreds of kilometers and above ground,"
Be careful what you wish for
Israel’s wars used to be measured in days. The armies of corrupt Arab governments were no match for Israel’s military machine. That began to change in Lebanon. Before the Israeli invasion of Lebanon, the country's Shia population was no threat to Israel. In fact, there was quite a bit of friction between Palestinian militants in the South of Lebanon and the local Shia population. Then, Israel invaded and occupied Lebanon.
18 years of Israeli occupation resulted in the creation of Hezbollah. Lebanon’s Shia had gone from a neutral, marginalized non-entity to becoming the most effective Arab fighting force that the IDF had ever faced. Hezbollah attacks made the cost of the occupation more than the Israeli public was willing to pay, and Israel was forced to abandon Lebanon.
Israel’s actions created a deadly and battle-hardened military force on its Northern border. IDF attacks on Lebanese civilians and civilian infrastructure, rather than dividing the civilian population from the militants, drew them closer together and acted as a recruitment tool for anyone ready to take the fight to the Israelis. Hezbollah has a much more sophisticated underground infrastructure and much more advanced weapons than Hamas. As a result, tens of thousands of residents from northern Israel have been displaced and may not be able to return because of Hezbollah attacks. That has taken a heavy toll on jobs, businesses, and communities.
In Gaza, meanwhile, successive Israeli governments sought to weaken the PLO-controlled Palestinian Authority and split the Palestinian leadership by funding first the Muslim Brotherhood and then its military wing, Hamas. Hamas took over Gaza with Israel’s aid and support, the Palestinian leadership was split, and the Palestinian Authority was emasculated. The PLO had traded recognition of Israel and an abandonment of armed struggle in exchange for what? Did they get a Palestinian state? No. Did they get a cessation of settlements? No. Did they get an end to settler attacks on Palestinians? No. They got nothing except the privilege of being wardens for Israel’s hated illegal occupation. They lost the support of Palestinians and became reviled and hated as corrupt collaborators.
Israel had succeeded, mission accomplished, but... be careful what you wish for.
The unintended consequences of Israel's Gaza policy
Israel’s stranglehold on Gaza — the world’s largest prison camp, putting Gaza “on a diet” as Israeli officials put it, resulting in widespread food insecurity and mass unemployment, the repeated “mowing the lawn” of Gaza - killing 100s and sometimes 1,000s of women and children, the assassinations and repeated invasions (all the while providing Hamas with funding) has forged Hamas into a deadly battle-hardened force along the lines of Hezbollah. Even though Hamas is Sunni and Hezbollah (and their Iranian patrons) are Shia - Israel provides a common enemy that unites them all.
Israel has created the Frankenstein monsters that could destroy it. The violence and policies it has resorted to prevent peace and any hope for a Palestinian state have blown up in its face. The colonial project now threatens to consume the colonists.
Netanyahu spins BS about how he is destroying Hamas when, in fact, the opposite is happening. Hamas has rebuilt the fighting capability of its damaged battalions, and ten months into the war nowhere in Gaza is safe for the IDF. There are multiple recruits ready to take the place of every fallen Hamas fighter, ready to avenge murdered siblings, children, parents, and relatives.
Years of Hamas leadership assassinations by Israel have created an organization that quickly replaces fallen leaders and losses in its ranks. As in Lebanon, collective punishment has had the opposite effect that the Israelis had intended. Before the war, Gazans were fed up with Hamas governance; now, Netanyahu has turned Gaza into a Hamas recruitment factory with an endless supply of young males with nothing to lose. The median age in the Gaza Strip is around 18 years old. Why just wait passively for an Israeli bomb to find you when you can instead die killing Israeli soldiers and avenging family murdered by the Israelis? Either way, you're likely dead. How would you choose to go out?
While the Israeli military establishment is concerned about its ability to sustain the Gaza war, Netanyahu wants to expand the war to the West Bank, Lebanon, and Iran. Netanyahu won’t stop until he loses power and has to face justice, or he destroys Israel - whichever comes first.
An economy on the brink, a society hopelessly divided, a military at odds with its government, violent religious extremists out of control, emigration of many of Israel’s brightest, a genocidal war that can’t be won that is making the country a pariah state - welcome to Netanyahu’s Israel.
Biden is doing Israel no favors by accommodating and enabling this toxic agent of chaos.
