Der Spiegel interviewed Lew Gudkow (Lev Gudkov), a sociologist in Moscow who has researched Russian attitudes about the Ukraine war. I was surprised by his frankness and wonder how he stays out of jail and avoids high windows. These are my notes about the interview. The bottom line: do not expect the Russian people to pressure Putin for peace. The article appeared in the print edition dated Jan 4, 2025. There is no link, and linking would be a copyright violation.
Public opinion in Russia is dominated by propaganda and total government control of the media. The people rally around the leadership and are increasingly anti-Western. 77% support the war, and this remains consistent, but 57% also want negotiations for peace, meaning Ukraine capitulation, loss of territory, a new government, and no NATO membership.
A vague unrest is growing. Recent surveys say that people think the war has brought more bad than good, and that the stated goals are not reachable. There is growing awareness of the magnitude of the casualties, despite official lies. The economy is also a growing problem. Wages have grown during the war, but inflation is 20-30% (officially only 9%) and the people are feeling poorer. Some blame western sanctions. The government tries to blame the CIA, etc. but the people do not believe this can explain why potatoes are 50% more expensive.
Public opinion at present is no risk for Putin. The people feel a need for an authority that explains everything, and the government is increasing the repression of negative news and views. The educated elites keep quiet and focus on making money. Despite the problems, most folks think that the war must be fought and won with every means, even if it is not a just war. The support for using nuclear weapons has grown from 21% to 39% (no time frame given). The problems from the war have not resulted in criticism of the leadership, but instead a more aggressive attitude about winning the war. 56% of the people fear a possible escalation into a war with NATO.
Some folks are completely clueless about the war, e.g. believing the war began with the Ukraine attack on Kursk instead of 2.5 years earlier with the Russian attack on Ukraine. Russians mostly see Ukrainians as friendly Russian people (i.e. not a cause of war).
The Russian attitude toward Germany and Europe is a mixture of jealousy and anger, because they want to live like Europeans (wealthy, free) and this seems impossible. They mostly accept the government propaganda about the moral degeneration of the West.
Russian support for Putin is at 87%. If Putin were to lose the Ukraine war, it would mean the end of his power and likely his life. He would likely be able to hold on to power if a compromise were reached in which conquered territories were ceded to Russia. The Russian people would be deeply disappointed and angry that so little was gained in return for the great loss of life. Putin would try to blame others. Putin would be at risk only if the support of the elites becomes shaky. Putin rotates the generals and officials to keep them from accumulating power and becoming a threat.
In 2025, the economy will likely get worse, but this will not threaten Putin. He will increase the repression and the people will accept this. The cynicism will grow and the people will not care. Gudkow is pessimistic about the future and sees no way out of Putin’s dictatorship and tyranny.