Russian forces conducted a series of drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of October 10 to 11.
The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 78 Shahed-type, Gerbera-type, and other drones, including over 40 Shahed-type drones, from the directions of Oryol, and Kursk cities; Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; and occupied Cape Chauda, Crimea.[70] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces downed 54 drones and that 21 drones struck six locations. Ukrainian officials reported that Russian strikes damaged residential areas and civilian and energy infrastructure in Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk and Odesa oblasts.[71]
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reported on October 10 that Ukrainian utilities restored power to over 725,000 households on October 10 in Kyiv City and Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, and Chernihiv oblasts, but that the situation in Sumy Oblast remains difficult.[72] Zelensky reported that continued Russian strikes are complicating electrical repairs in Kharkiv, Kherson, and Donetsk oblasts. Zelensky reported that Ukrainian utility workers also restored water supply to Kyiv Oblast and continue to work in Kirovohrad Oblast.
Novhorod-Siverskyi Raion Military Administration Head Oleksandr Seliverstov reported on October 11 that Russian forces struck civilian vehicles at the Chernihivoblenegro Oil Refinery near Zhadove, Chernihiv Oblast, injuring one and killing another.[73] The Bakhmach City Council in Chernihiv Oblast reported on October 11 that Russian forces then conducted a “double tap” drone strike against Ukrainian rescue workers responding to the Chernihivoblenegro oil refinery strike, injuring four first responders.[74] The Bakhmach City Council reported that one of the injured first responders later died. Russian forces use double tap strikes to spread fear among the Ukrainian populace, and these strikes very likely constitute a serious violation of the international legal principle of distinction that requires that parties only target combatants and civilians directly participating in hostilities.[75]
During the night of October 10–11, Russia launched 78 attack UAVs (Shahed, Geran, and others) from multiple directions including Oryol, Millerovo, Kursk, and occupied Crimea. Ukraine’s air defense, using EW, drone units, and mobile fire groups, shot down or suppressed 54 of them. 21 drones hit six locations.
Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian oil infrastructure on October 11 amid worsening gas shortages in Russia and occupied Crimea. Sources in Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) told Ukrainian broadcaster Suspilne that SBU Center “A” drone operators struck the Bashneft-Novoil Oil Refinery in Ufa, Republic of Bashkortostan, one of Russia’s largest fuel and lubricant suppliers, on the morning of October 11.[24] The oil refinery reportedly supplies fuel and lubricants to the Russian military, and Suspilne noted that this is the third strike against a refinery in the Republic of Bashkortostan in the last month (since mid-September 2025). A Ukrainian OSINT analyst reported that the facility is roughly 1400 kilometers from the international border of Ukraine and assessed that geolocated imagery indicates that the facility’s AVT-5 unit, a critical component of the oil refining process, is damaged.[25]
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European authorities continue to report increased unidentified drone sightings in European airspace near military facilities. Czech General Staff Spokesperson Zdeňka Košvancová reported on October 10 that the Czech military has detected an increasing number of incidents involving unidentified drones operating near Czech infrastructure, particularly military facilities, in recent weeks.[19] German outlet Der Spiegel reported on October 9 that the German military detected an unidentified drone that entered the security perimeter of a NATO air base in Geilenkirchen on the evening of October 8.[20] Der Spiegel, citing an internal memo, reported that the drone overflew the air base’s runway at low altitude. Der Spiegel noted that the NATO air base houses airborne early warning and control (AWACS) surveillance aircraft that fulfill a critical role in monitoring NATO’s eastern flank. Der Spiegel reported that German authorities have not yet attributed the incident to any specific actor. ISW assesses, however, that Russia has been increasingly engaging in covert and overt attacks against Europe and that Russia has entered Phase Zero of its campaign to prepare for a possible NATO-Russia war in the future.[21] The ongoing unattributed drone incursions across Europe are part of a recently intensified pattern and therefore are likely part of Russia’s broader condition setting effort.
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- The Russian defense industry is implementing long term efforts to increase T-90 tank production and recreate Russia’s pre-war tank reserves, indicating that Russia intends to present a long term military threat to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
- Recent open-source data indicates that Russia is also increasing its refurbishment of T-72 tanks, possibly for use on the battlefield in Ukraine in the short term or to reestablish its tank reserve to threaten NATO in the medium term.
- Russian forces are still using tanks to advance on the battlefield during infrequent mechanized assaults when Ukraine’s drone defenses are degraded, indicating that tanks remain and will remain a relevant weapon on the battlefield under proper tactical conditions.
- Russia may be able to pose a significant threat to NATO on a timeline much sooner than 2036 and without necessarily reconstituting its tank fleet.
- European authorities continue to report increased unidentified drone sightings in European airspace near military facilities.
- Ukraine’s European partners continue to allocate aid to Ukraine and deepen cooperation with the Ukrainian defense industrial base (DIB).
- Russian forces advanced near Pokrovsk and Velykomykhailivka and in the Dobropillya tactical area.
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**General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine**
*Operational information as of 22:00 on October 10, 2025 regarding the Russian invasion*
In total, there have been 198 combat clashes since the beginning of this day. Ukrainian defenders continue to resolutely repel the enemy's attempts to advance deeper into our territory, inflicting fire damage on them.
Russian invaders launched one missile strike using 32 missiles and 34 air strikes, dropping 71 guided bombs. In addition, they used 2,016 kamikaze drones and carried out 3,062 shelling attacks on the positions of our troops and populated areas.
- - There were 12 combat clashes in the North Slobozhansky and Kursk directions. The enemy carried out 101 artillery strikes, including two with multiple launch rocket systems.
- - Today, the enemy attacked 24 times in the South Slobozhanskyi direction in the areas of Vovchansk, Vovchanski Khutory, Zapadny, Kamianka, Dovhenke, and in the direction of Kutkivka, Dvorichanskyi, Odradnyi, Bologivka, and Kolodyaznyi.
- - In the Kupiansk direction, the enemy made 11 attempts to advance in the areas of Stepova Novoselivka, Pishchane, Petropavlivka, Bohuslavka, and in the direction of Kurylivka. Three combat engagements are still ongoing.
- - In the Lyman direction, the Defense Forces repelled 14 assaults in the areas of Novyi Mir, Kopanky, Drobysheve, Shandryholove, Karpivka, Ridkodub, Derylove, Serednie, Torske, and in the direction of Olgivka. Eight more clashes are still ongoing.
- - In the Sloviansk direction, the enemy attacked seven times in the areas of Dronivka, Yampil, and Hryhorivka.
- - Since the beginning of the day, Russian units have carried out one attack in the direction of Virolyubivka in the Kramatorsk direction.
- In the Kostyantynivka direction, there were 16 combat clashes today. The enemy attempted to storm the positions of Ukrainian units in the areas of the settlements of Pleshchiivka, Predtechine, Toretsk, Kleban-Byk, Rusyn Yar, Poltavka, and in the direction of the settlement of Berestok.
- In the Pokrovsk direction, since the beginning of this day, the enemy has attacked 51 times in the areas of the settlements of Shakhov, Volodymyrivka, Zatyshok, Nikanorivka, Rodynske, Myrolyubivka, Novoekonomichne, Myrnohrad, Lysivka, Pokrovsk, Zvirove, Kotlyne, Novoukrainka, Udachne, Molodetsk, Gorikove, Filiya, and in the direction of Novopavlivka. Our defenders are holding back the enemy's advance and have already stopped 47 enemy attacks, with fighting continuing in four locations.
Today, according to preliminary data, 198 occupiers were neutralized in this direction, 140 of whom were killed. In addition, Ukrainian soldiers destroyed one artillery system, eight vehicles, and 61 UAVs. Our soldiers also hit six armored combat vehicles, one artillery system, and 12 shelters for enemy personnel.
- In the Oleksandrivka direction, Ukrainian defenders repelled 21 attacks by invaders in the areas of Andriivka-Klevtsove, Oleksandrohrad, Sichneve, Verbove, Novovasylivske, Tolstoy, Sosnivka, Novohryhorivka, Malynivka, and Poltavka. Five more combat clashes are ongoing.
- In the Huliaipole direction, the enemy did not conduct offensive operations, but carried out air strikes on the areas of Zaporizhzhia and Zaliznychne.
- In the Orikhiv direction, the occupiers made seven attempts to advance on the positions of our troops in the areas of Kamyanske, Stepove, and Plavni.
- In the Prydniprovsk direction, enemy units made five unsuccessful attempts to storm the positions of our units.
Today, we would like to commend the soldiers of the 40th Separate Brigade of Coastal Defense, who are effectively holding back the enemy.
Russia may be able to pose a significant threat to NATO on a timeline much sooner than 2036 and without necessarily reconstituting its tank fleet. understandingwar.org/...
Russian forces are still using tanks to advance on the battlefield during infrequent mechanized assaults when Ukraine’s drone defenses are degraded, indicating that the tank remains and will remain a relevant weapon on the battlefield under proper tactical conditions. Russian forces recently conducted a company-sized and reinforced battalion-sized mechanized assault in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka-Dobropillya areas in Donetsk Oblast after largely refraining from conducting larger mechanized assaults.[13] Russian forces appear to be conducting these assaults during rainy weather conditions, as rain and high winds impede Ukrainian drone operations.[14] Russian forces will likely continue to seize on bad weather as an opportunity to advance when Ukrainian forces cannot effectively fly drones. This dynamic underscores that Ukraine’s drone defenses depend on certain weather conditions and that drones alone are insufficient to defend against ground and armored forces. Russia’s reported efforts to refurbish T-72A tanks indicate that Russia will likely have sufficient armored stocks to re-equip frontline units in priority areas and continue opportunistic mechanized assaults in the short term, although Russia may also stockpile newly refurbished or produced tanks for future use in Ukraine or against a NATO member state.
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