Survey Says is a weekly series rounding up the most important polling trends or data points you need to know about, plus a vibe check on a trend that’s driving politics or culture.
Early voting for New York City’s mayoral race kicked off about a week ago, and turnout is smashing records—surpassing both the 2021 mayoral election and June’s Democratic primary, when democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani stunned the establishment with a comfortable win.
But what those big numbers actually mean is anyone’s guess. Early-voting data doesn’t show who’s casting ballots or which candidate stands to gain. The question looming over Tuesday’s election is simple: Can Mamdani really become New York’s next mayor?
Polling says he just might. In polls conducted since the start of August, an average of 45% of respondents back Mamdani in the race, while independent candidate Andrew Cuomo pulls in 29% support and Republican Curtis Sliwa gets 16%.
That’s a fairly comfortable lead, but some more recent polls have shown a slightly tighter race. Two new polls—one from Suffolk University and another from Quinnipiac University—show Mamdani’s lead as just 10 percentage points over Cuomo, a smaller lead than in previous polls.
While those numbers suggest a softening lead, he’s still clearly ahead, and other new polls show a larger margin. For instance, a new one from Emerson College/PIX11/The Hill has Mamdani up 26 points over Cuomo.
Any shift toward Cuomo may stem from Mayor Eric Adams’ exit from the race and his endorsement of Cuomo. In Suffolk’s data, Adams had about 8% support in September, but now he’s down to 2%, with Cuomo appearing to gain from Adams’ lost support. In a potential problem for Cuomo, though, Adams’ name still appears on the ballot.
Demographics could also shape how election night unfolds. According to voter data obtained by Gothamist, New Yorkers ages 55 and older have cast just over half of all early ballots so far—a sharp reversal from June, when younger voters dominated turnout.
Democratic mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani, shown in June.
That might be a warning sign for Mamdani, whose base relies on younger, first-time, and working-class voters. But recent polling complicates that narrative as well. Across many recent surveys, Cuomo leads among older voters by only a handful of points—a slim edge that might not be enough to blunt Mamdani’s strength among the under-40 crowd.
Cuomo may want an older electorate, but he’d need a massive gray wave to make it count.
“I think it’s always wise never to be overconfident,” Andres Bernal, a political analyst at the City University of New York and Mamdani supporter, told Daily Kos. “Even at Mamdani’s recent rally with [Rep.] Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and [Sen.] Bernie Sanders, there was definitely a message out there to not get lazy and really be focused on getting out there and voting and canvassing.”
Still, uncertainty lingers. Nearly every pollster missed Mamdani’s June performance—a win that may not repeat if those low-propensity voters stay home. Then again, it’s unclear if many pollsters have adjusted their demographics since June, making it possible that Mamdani is ahead by even more than current numbers suggest. Either way, his campaign isn’t taking any chances.
“The energy and enthusiasm for Mamdani, the youthful energy for it, the sense of hope, and the sense of being for somebody—as opposed to being against somebody else—will triumph,” Bernal predicted.
The bigger question is what this means for Democrats after Tuesday. Off-year elections rarely carry national lessons. But when a democratic socialist looks poised to lead America’s largest city, it’s hard not to see a bigger story about what the Democratic Party is—and what it’s becoming.
Independent mayoral candidate Andrew Cuomo, shown in October.
Already, pundits are framing Mamdani’s rise as a referendum on the Democratic Party’s direction: Should it tack to the center to win back swing voters, or should it lean into the energy of the left?
If Mamdani wins by more than 50% of the vote, the latter narrative may well dominate. Republicans are itching to make him the face of the Democratic Party—a stand-in for the “radical left” ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. That alone says something: The GOP is so nervous—nervous enough to redraw congressional maps to cling to their slim House majority—that it needs a fresh boogeyman.
Still, New York is its own political universe. Mamdani’s campaign—movement-heavy, youth-driven, unabashedly ideological—may win over a deep-blue city. But his formula won’t necessarily work elsewhere. Democrats in less blue states, like Virginia or New Jersey, are operating in different ecosystems, where suburban moderates often decide elections.
You can see that contrast clearly. In Virginia’s and New Jersey’s gubernatorial elections, centrist Democrats Abigail Spanberger and Mikie Sherrill are leading their GOP challengers. If both of them and Mamdani win, it won’t reveal much about the party’s broader trajectory. Their victories would stem from different coalitions and different playbooks.
“It’s a little silly to take three elections and make some huge pronouncement about the future of the Democratic Party,” said Dave Hopkins, a political scientist at Boston College. “It’s okay for the world to be a complicated place and for not every election to tell exactly the same story.”
Virginia Republican gubernatorial candidate Winsome Earle-Sears, left, and Democratic candidate Abigail Spanberger.
Spanberger faces Republican Winsome Earle-Sears, Virginia’s far-right lieutenant governor, who called abortion “genocide” in 2021. In New Jersey, Sherrill’s opponent, Republican Jack Ciattarelli, may not be as far right as Earle-Sears, but he is still comfortably in MAGA territory. Both Democrats are running careful, policy-heavy campaigns—steady, disciplined, and low on flash. Mamdani’s doing the opposite, leaning into street-level energy with rallies alongside Ocasio-Cortez and Sanders, with a movement-style push that feels closer to protest than politics.
Even if all three Democrats win, that won’t stop the party from trying to find a grand takeaway. A Mamdani win will no doubt unleash a flood of think pieces claiming to have decoded the party’s future. But the truth may be simpler: Mamdani built a coalition that fits his city in this moment and with this electorate. He’s a product of his own political ecosystem.
Still, his rise points to something Democrats can’t ignore. If Democrats want to win over younger voters who’ve tuned out, they’ll need candidates who speak to them and make them feel seen. Mamdani is managing that. Whether anyone else can is the real question heading into 2026.
“Let’s say all three Democrats win. Well, in that case, it’s okay to say the progressive wing of the party got a big victory in New York, and the more centrist candidates did well in New Jersey and Virginia,” Hopkins said. “If anything, that shows the Democratic Party has never only had one kind of candidate.”
“A party trying to build a national majority has to be flexible about tolerating ideological and stylistic differences across constituencies,” he added. “And maybe that’s the story: Success for Democrats means letting different kinds of candidates run different kinds of races in different parts of the country.”
Any updates?
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Americans are somewhat split over the NFL tapping Puerto Rican-born artist Bad Bunny for the 2026 Super Bowl halftime show, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll. Nearly half of Americans (48%) approve of the decision, while 29% disapprove and 24% have no opinion. Support breaks sharply along partisan lines—and by race and age, too. Bad Bunny draws strong backing from Black and Hispanic adults and from younger Americans, especially those ages 18 to 34. Politically, 74% of Democrats approve of the decision, while 63% of Republicans oppose it.
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At midnight on Sunday, Americans gained an extra hour of sleep as daylight saving time ended. But the twice-yearly clock change—loved by some, loathed by others—remains one of the country’s most persistent small-scale debates. Even President Donald Trump has weighed in, urging lawmakers to “push hard for more Daylight at the end of a day.” Americans have mixed feelings, according to a new YouGov/Economist poll. Twenty-three percent look forward to the change, while 34% do not. But most agree on one thing—ending the switch altogether. Sixty-five percent say they want to stop changing their clocks twice a year, while only 13% think it should continue.
Vibe check
Let’s check in on how the Democratic gubernatorial candidates in New Jersey and Virginia are holding up, shall we?
Of the three Democrats facing high-profile races on Tuesday, Mamdani has the largest average lead over his opponents. That said, Virginia’s Abigail Spanberger and New Jersey’s Mikie Sherrill are also ahead on average.
Spanberger leads Earle-Sears by an average of 8.0 points, based on a Daily Kos analysis of all polls conducted since early August and compiled by The New York Times.
Sherrill’s numbers look similar, with her enjoying a 5.4-point advantage, on average, over Ciattarelli in polls since the start of August.
All told, Democrats are heading into Tuesday in better shape than many expected. A hat trick would mark another strong night for the party—and another rough one for Trump.
Andrew Mangan contributed research.
