In May, I wrote that the Democrats could actually retake the U.S. Senate in 2026 if things break right:
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2025/5/1/2319854/-Democrats-Must-Think-Big-in-2026-We-Can-Win-the-Senate
Since the terrific results of the off-off year election this last Tuesday night, I am more convinced than ever that the Senate is in play. I am glad to see that the mainstream media and the political establishment are coming to this conclusion as well. Having said that, I am concerned that DSCC won’t compete in states that would usually be out of reach, not believing enough in the giant blue wave that I think is coming and that many of those races are ripe for major upsets.
In 2020, the following Republican Senators won by 10 points or less.
- Dan Sullivan, Alaska (+6)
- Ashley Moody (Marco Rubio’s seat), Florida (+5)
- Joni Ernst, Iowa (+6)
- Roger Marshall, Kansas (+8)
- Susan Collins, Maine (+4)
- Steve Daines, Montana (+10)
-Thom Tillis, North Carolina (+1)
- Jon Husted (J.D Vance’s seat), Ohio (+5)
- Lindsay Graham, South Carolina (+8)
- John Cornyn, Texas (+6)
This is the order I think the Democrats have for possible pick-ups from most to least likely:
North Carolina – Thom Tillis has declined to run again after being trashed by Donald Trump. Given what happened on Tuesday, I think former Governor Roy Cooper is almost a shoo-in to win.
Maine – Susan Collins shtick is getting old. My only concern for the Democrats is that they get the right candidate to run against her. Graham Plantner seemed good at first to me, but those Nazi tattoos… Governor Janet Mills, at 78, would not be my first choice. But she is popular and I think Collins would lose to her.
Ohio – Jon Husted holds J.D. Vance’s old Ohio Senate seat. Vance only won by 5 points during Biden’s midterm. In 2024, Sherrod Brown only lost by 3.5 points only because Trump was at the top of the ticket and because the Republicans spent a boatload of money lying about him. But given the poor economy, Brown’s bona fides regarding working class economic issues should give him the upper hand.
Iowa – Joni Ernst is no longer running for reelection and farmers are getting hammered by Trump’s tariffs. Also, Iowa’s governor is very unpopular and the likely Democratic candidate for Governor, State Auditor, Rob Sand, is very popular. A solid Democratic senatorial candidate should be more than competitive.
Texas – the Democrats’ white whale. Beyond this upcoming Senate race, the Democrats (and some progressive billionaires) should be spending huge sums of money to turn the state blue. The problem in Texas is that so many potential progressive voters just don’t vote, millions of them. But if Texas does become blue, just as California did, it will be almost impossible for a Republican to be elected President again. And Senator John Cornyn only won by six points in 2020 and he is going to face a primary challenger from the Attorney General, Ken Paxton. Several decent Democrats including Colin Allred and James Talarico are vying for the nomination. A major investment is warranted here.
Kansas - A Democrat hasn’t been elected Senator from Kansas since the 1930’s, but watch a clip of Roger Marshall being interviewed. He has an ugly persona beyond his MAGA conservatism. He was so obnoxious and stupid during a Senate hearing, Anthony Fauci was overheard calling him a “moron”. The current governor of Kansas is a Democrat so it is possible for us to win there. In a wave election, I believe Marshall can be beat.
Alaska – Alaska already has high prices because of its location. Dan Sullivan’s refusal to confront Trump on tariffs and Trump breaking his promises on inflation are something Sullivan can’t run away from. I am begging Mary Peltola to run against him (and not for Governor).
Florida – Ashley Moody (Rubio’s replacement) is unimpressive. I know that Florida has swung dramatically red the last few cycles. But much of that has to do with poor Democratic voter turnout. If that can be turned around, plus the fact that Trump is screwing with not only Obamacare but Medicare, a strong candidate could pull off a victory for the Democrats.
Montana is another state that has trended red and absent a strong Democratic opponent, Steve Daines is likely to be reelected. But Howard Dean was right, that we should be contesting everywhere because if the stars align correctly, almost anyone can be beat. Having said that, Daines is probably a safe R as is South Carolina’s Lindsay Graham.
But there a few other seats to keep an eye on, like in Nebraska. The independent, Dan Osborn, only lost to Deb Fischer in 2024 by six points. I know Pete Ricketts won by more than 20 points last time, but if the economy is bad enough, Osborn’s working class message will resonate. And even Mississippi, which has a strong candidate in Scott Colom running against the mediocre Cindy Hyde-Smith, the Democrat might break through.
This last Tuesday the Democrats “over performed” by high single digits in almost every part of the country. Even if the Supreme Court gets rid of Trump’s tariffs (which they obviously should), I believe the economy is going to get worse, not better, in the next 12 months.
Also, people are pissed about the ICE roundups and the rigging of the economy for the rich and the destruction of the White House and Trump’s monarchal ambitions.
Trump’s inroads into young voters and Latinos in 2024 have reversed back to the Democrats. The Republicans will not make the necessary adjustments to fix these things.
In my opinion a Blue Wave…no, a Blue Tsunami is coming.
It would be a shame to not field strong candidates in all these Senate races given the likely economic downturn and people’s anger over immigration and Trump’s authoritarianism.
