Russian forces have gained 0.77 percent of Ukrainian territory since the start of 2025 while suffering disproportionately high personnel costs.
Drone strikes on pipelines, mine the Gulf of Finland, hit Moscow?
Russian forces conducted a series of drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of December 8 to 9.
The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 110 Shahed-type, Gerbera-type, and other drones – of which roughly 70 were Shahed-type drones – from the directions of Bryansk, Oryol, and Kursk cities; Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai; occupied Donetsk city; and occupied Hvardiiske, Crimea.[107] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces downed 84 drones and that 24 drones struck nine locations. Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces struck energy, residential, and civilian infrastructure in Sumy, Kharkiv, and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts.[108]
Ukraine’s largest private energy company, DTEK, reported on December 8 that it suspended activities at the last DTEK-operated “Bilozerska” coal mine in Donetsk Oblast due to the deteriorating security situation and lack of stable power supply.[109]
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Ukraine’s air defense forces shot down or suppressed 131 drones overnight, out of 149 launched from multiple directions. Most were Shahed-type drones. Hits were recorded at 11 locations, and debris fell in 4 more.
Ukrainian forces may have continued their long-range strike campaign against Russia’s defense-industrial base (DIB) on the night of December 8 to 9. Footage posted on December 9 shows a large plume of smoke, reportedly from a Ukrainian drone strike in Cheboksary, Chuvashia Republic.[33] Russian opposition outlet Astra reported that a drone struck targeted a Joint Stock Company (JSC) VNIIR-Progress enterprise in Cheboksary, which produces military equipment like satellite receivers and antennas.[34] Governor of Chuvashia Republic Oleg Nikolaev confirmed that Ukrainian drones struck Cheboksary on December 9 and declared a state of emergency in the republic.[35]
The Kremlin’s cognitive warfare effort aims to achieve several of Putin’s original war aims through a negotiated settlement, as Russian forces are currently unable to achieve them on the battlefield. Putin and other high-ranking Kremlin officials have repeatedly and publicly reiterated their commitment to Russia’s original war aims, including granting Russia a veto over future NATO expansion, the removal of the Ukrainian government, the installation of a pro-Russian puppet government, and limits on Ukraine’s ability to defend itself.[4] Putin reiterated on December 9 his call for Ukraine to cede all of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts – including areas that Russian forces currently do not occupy. Putin claimed that Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts are Russia’s “historical territory” and were “always part of Russia.”[5] Putin repeated his narrative that Ukraine is an artificial state that Soviet authorities whimsically created. The Russian Federation has notably recognized Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty, and borders several times in the past three decades, including with its recognition of Ukrainian independence in 1991, the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, and the 1997 Russian-Ukrainian Friendship Treaty.
ISW continues to assess that the Russian campaign to militarily seize the rest of Donetsk Oblast, including Ukraine’s heavily fortified Fortress Belt, would likely take at least two-to-three years, pose a significant challenge, and result in difficult and costly battles that the Russian Federation may not be able to sustain.[6] Russia’s cognitive warfare effort aims to push Ukraine and the West to cede this heavily defended territory to Russia without a fight, allowing Russia to avoid spending significant amounts of time and resources to try to seize it on the battlefield. Ceding Donetsk Oblast to Russia would also notably set conditions for Russia to renew its aggression against Ukraine from more advantageous positions at a time of its choosing, particularly as Putin and other Kremlin officials continue to indicate that their longer-term strategic goal of controlling all of Ukraine – not only its southern and eastern regions – remains unchanged.[7]
Russian forces have gained 0.77 percent of Ukrainian territory since the start of 2025 while suffering disproportionately high personnel costs. ISW has observed evidence to assess that Russian forces have seized roughly 4,669 square kilometers since January 1, 2025. Data from the Ukrainian General Staff indicates that Russian forces have suffered a total of 391,270 casualties in that time – or about 83 casualties per square kilometer. The Russian rate of advance has not exceeded a footpace, even in areas where Russian forces have been making relatively quicker gains recently, such as in the Hulyaipole and Pokrovsk directions. Russian advances are unlikely to move faster than a footpace in the near- to medium- term. The drone-dominated battlefield denies Russian forces the ability to conduct maneuver warfare at the scale necessary for rapid, operational-level advances that restore maneuver to the battlefield.[8] Ukraine’s drone-based defenses have some vulnerabilities (e.g. weather factors) that Russian forces have managed to exploit to make tactically significant advances, but Ukraine’s drone defenses overall have denied Russian forces the ability to use armored vehicles and conduct mechanized maneuver and have forced Russian forces into grinding attritional infantry missions.[9] This equilibrium is unlikely to change rapidly, barring any sudden changes in the fundamental technologies and operational concepts underpinning the current war in Ukraine.
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- The Kremlin is significantly intensifying its cognitive warfare effort to present the Russian military and economy as able to inevitably win a war of attrition against Ukraine.
- The Kremlin’s cognitive warfare effort aims to achieve several of Putin’s original war aims through a negotiated settlement, as Russian forces are currently unable to achieve them on the battlefield.
- Russian forces have gained 0.77 percent of Ukrainian territory since the start of 2025 while suffering disproportionately high personnel costs.
- Russia’s resources are not endless as Putin is trying to assert, and Putin currently appears to be facing difficult decision points regarding the strategic sustainment of Russian force generation.
- Putin is very likely preparing to attempt to offset Russia’s near-exhaustion of voluntary recruitment in 2026 by mobilizing elements of Russia’s strategic reserve to sustain combat operations in Ukraine. The Kremlin remains unlikely to undertake a single large-scale mobilization at this time, however, and is most likely to persistently recruit reservists on a rolling basis.
- A Kremlin official suggested that Russia may try to renege on any future peace agreement it signs with Ukraine due to the Ukrainian government’s alleged “illegitimacy” – as ISW has long warned.
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky commented on the latest 20-point US-proposed peace plan.
- Ukraine continued discussions with its European allies on December 8 about the ongoing peace negotiations.
- Russian forces recently advanced near Lyman and Pokrovsk and in western Zaporizhia Oblast. Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Oleksandrivka.
https://t.co/OICjQgCeS4
**General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine**
*Operational information as of 22:00 on December 9, 2025, regarding the Russian invasion*
In total, there have been 164 combat engagements since the beginning of this day.
Ukrainian defenders continue to resolutely repel enemy attempts to advance deeper into our territory, inflicting fire damage on them.
Russian invaders carried out 40 air strikes, dropping 109 guided bombs. In addition, they used 3,313 kamikaze drones and carried out 2,994 shelling attacks on the positions of our troops and populated areas.
- - One combat engagement took place in the North Slobozhansky and Kursk directions. The enemy launched an air strike, dropping one guided aerial bomb and carrying out over a hundred shellings.
- - Today, the enemy attacked twice in the South Slobozhanskyi direction in the Prylipka area and in the direction of Izbitske.
- - In the Kupianskyi direction, the enemy made two attempts to advance towards Petropavlivka and Bohuslavka.
- - In the Lyman direction, the Defense Forces repelled 13 assaults in the areas of the settlements of Hrekivka, Novyi Mir, Mirne, and in the direction of the settlements of Stavy, Drobysheve; two more combat engagements are still ongoing.
- - In the Sloviansk direction, the enemy attacked 11 times in the areas of Yampil, Serebryanka, Siversk, Pereizne, and Fedorivka. One combat engagement is ongoing.
- - In the Kramatorsk direction, two enemy attacks have been repelled in the Chasovoy Yar area and in the direction of Bondarny.
- - There were 18 combat clashes in the Kostyantynivka direction today. The enemy attempted to storm the positions of Ukrainian units near Kostyantynivka, Oleksandro-Shultyne, Shcherbinivka, Pleshchiivka, Ivanopil, Rusyne Yar, and in the direction of Sofiivka. Two combat clashes are currently ongoing.
- - In the Pokrovsk direction, since the beginning of the day, the enemy has attacked 42 times in the areas of the settlements of Shakhov, Ivanivka, Chervonyi Lyman, Myrnohrad, Hryshyne, Pokrovsk, Kotlyne, Udachne, Molodetsk, Dachne, Filia, and in the direction of Novopidhorodne and Novopavlivka. Our defenders are holding back the enemy's advance, with fighting still ongoing in five locations.
According to preliminary data, 122 occupiers have been neutralized in this direction today, 87 of them irrevocably. In addition, Ukrainian soldiers destroyed two vehicles, six motorcycles, two ground robotic complexes, seven unmanned aerial vehicles, three units of special equipment, two personnel shelters, and two vehicles and 13 shelters for enemy personnel were also hit.
- - In the Oleksandrivka direction, Ukrainian defenders repelled 13 attacks by invaders in the areas of the settlements of Zelenyi Hai, Yalta, Vorone, Vyshneve, Rybne, Yegorivka, Pryvilne, and in the direction of Danilivka. Two more combat engagements are currently ongoing.
- - In the Huliaipole direction, 13 combat engagements took place in the areas of the settlements of Zatyshshya, Huliaipole, Bilohirya, and in the directions of Varvarivka and Dobropillia. Two more combat engagements are still ongoing.
- - No clashes have been reported in the Orikhiv direction at this time.
- - In the Dnipro direction, the enemy launched three unsuccessful offensive operations in the area of the Antonivsky Bridge.
- - No significant changes in the situation have occurred in other directions.
Glory to the Ukrainian defenders!
Glory to Ukraine!
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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky commented on the latest 20-point US-proposed peace plan. Zelensky stated on December 8 that the latest US-proposed peace plan contains 20 points.[30] Zelensky stated that territorial issues remain unresolved and that Ukrainian forces are fighting in order to not give up Ukrainian territory. Zelensky noted that Russia is putting military, informational, and diplomatic pressure on Ukraine to cede all of Donetsk Oblast. Zelensky noted that there is currently a proposal to “exchange” the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) and part of the territories that Russian forces occupy for the parts of Donetsk Oblast that Russian forces currently do not occupy. Zelensky continued to reiterate the importance of security guarantees for post-war Ukraine.
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Ukraine continued discussions with its European allies on December 8 about the ongoing peace negotiations. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met on December 8 with French President Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and German Chancellor Friederich Merz in London to discuss diplomatic engagement with the United States and further defense support for Ukraine.[31] Starmer noted the importance of reaching a settlement that guarantees a just and lasting peace for Ukraine. The Ukrainian readout of the meeting noted that the leaders reiterated that a peace plan must provide for Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, security guarantees from Ukraine’s partners, and a full ceasefire. Zelensky and Starmer also held a joint telephone conversation with representatives of Finland, Italy, Poland, Norway, the Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden, Turkey, NATO, and the European Commission on December 8, wherein the parties emphasized that the Coalition of the Willing must play a significant role in future security guarantees for Ukraine.[32] Zelensky noted that Ukraine is engaging in continuous communication with its partners to ensure that the ongoing negotiations consider Europe’s position.
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they still haven't released the Epstein files because withholding exculpatory evidence is clearly what you do when you're "innocent."
