It's becoming increasingly clear that Trump and his administration are conducting a big test to see how much power they can concentrate in the executive branch. In my opinion, what we see as gaffes, like the rescinded executive orders, are merely tests, probes, if you will. Trump attempts something that appears clearly illegal and then retreats when he gets push back. But I believe the purpose of these tests is not merely to own the libs or inspire terror, but rather to probe the "enemies" defenses. Having learned what they are and how effective they are, the next step is to try to neutralize or eliminate them if possible then run the test again. This is the big and ominous difference between Trump 2 and Trump 1. Trump 1 was blindsided by all the guardrails. Trump 2 is all about undermining as many of those guardrails as possible. Whether this is just a haphazard incursion into authoritarianism or checkmate will likely become apparent over the next four years.
So what are those guardrails and how can he undermine or eliminate them.
The DOJ
For a law to have an effect, there must be enforcement. Legislators can pass laws, judges can issue orders but they are nothing more than words unless there is some force that is capable and dedicated to taking enforcing those laws or court orders. Unfortunately, the Constitution assigned all enforcement power to the executive branch. This may prove to be a fatal flaw.
Historically, the principal line of defense has been the DOJ. The vast majority of DOJ employees are career employees, not political appointees. When they are made aware of people breaking the law, even within their own executive branch, they have generally risen to the occasion and investigated. Occasionally, political considerations will impact decisions to subsequently charge and prosecute but generally they have served as a strong deterrence to executive misconduct.
Clearly Trump realized this after his first term so he is investing a lot of energy into derailing this feature of the DOJ by replacing any career employees with those politically loyal to Trump or at least corrupt enough to not care. This is the first test. We have yet to find out if he can successfully eliminate all significant opposition to ignoring laws broken by the executive branch. Of course, getting rid of the inspectors general helps in this because it has the potential to effectively blind the DOJ to any fraud or corruption elsewhere within the government.
Acts of revenge against Jan 6 prosecutors not withstanding, expect him to be most successful in neutralizing FBI investigation of Trump administration behavior (no investigation then nothing to charge). While it is tempting to replace all the DOJ lawyers with Trump lackeys, there is one enforcement mechanism against lawyers that is not under Trump's control: disbarment, one of the few penalties for Jan 6 supporters like Giuliani that Trump has been unable to prevent and no presidential pardon can do anything about .
Congress and Courts
Congress can pass laws and courts can issue orders but without an enforcement arm they are nothing more than words. This, unfortunately is true whether the Republicans continue to hold Congress or not. The only remaining tool they have is impeachment and whatever effectiveness the founding fathers may have believed this tool would have, it is clear in this century that it is now toothless. It requires 2/3 of the Senate which is a virtual impossibility in the current environment and I am sure the Trump administration already knows this and no longer sees this as a threat to his plans.
The "Deep State"
The next guardrail is what Trump has called the “Deep State”. Trump is actually right in a sense. There is a deep state. It is the substantial subset of government employees who will obey the laws and court orders even when they conflict with what Trump wants. They are effectively a source of resistance to his complete takeover of the government. Clearly Trump knows this and that is what is behind his attempt to eliminate as many career government employees as possible, at least those who would have any power to block his policies first by offering them severance and then by simply terminating them. Even if he is unable to eliminate all of those who would resist actions that are illegal, he may be able to put enough loyalists in positions of power to isolate and de fang any who remain in a position to do anything about it.
The Military
The penultimate guardrail is the US military. They are the only organization with the capability to enforce the law and take the drastic action of removing the president if he proves completely lawless but we could only expect that possibility if Trump has successfully eliminated all of the above guardrails and is so out of control that common sense says he must be removed and it is clear that the courts would support such an action. Of course, Trump is aware of this as well and so he will undoubtedly attempt to do with the military what he is attempting to do with other areas of government: eliminate or neutralize any people with the military who might interfere with illegal commands.
We will need to watch carefully to see if he can succeed, but certainly even replacing all the senior leadership would make it much more difficult for anyone in the military to take action against Trump.
The Voters
The final guardrail are the voters although they will not actually get an opportunity to exercise that power for two years and even then, as I discussed above, changing the composition of Congress will not suddenly give them any power to stop Trump if he chooses to ignore the law. That opportunity will only come in four years. Consequently, Trump does not need to take any short term action on derailing this last guardrail but eventually we will likely see him try to neutralize this guardrail as well. Meanwhile, he will undoubtedly continue to gaslight and deceive the public and hope that they remain ignorant of his true intentions and believe that somehow everything he does is for them.
The Bottom Line
I believe we are in the midst of a great test with Trump relentlessly pushing the limits of his power, temporarily retreating when the guardrails are too strong then working to weaken them and trying again. Unfortunately, there really does not seem to be any force out there than can prevent this continual probing and advancing of his authoritarian dreams at least for the next four years. The only thing that we can do is to make sure that the people are made aware of every plan and every action he takes to implement it.